Small Craft Advisory 61, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

599 
WHUS71 KPHI 151432
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1032 AM EDT WED SEP 15 2010

ANZ431-450>455-152245-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0061.100916T2000Z-100917T1000Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1032 AM EDT WED SEP 15 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO
6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO
6 AM EDT FRIDAY. 

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR 3 PM FORECAST OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL NEED
TO START THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CLOSER TO MIDDAY THURSDAY AND
THAT THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE BAY WILL BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


DRAG

331 
WHUS71 KPHI 151934
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 PM EDT WED SEP 15 2010

ANZ430-160900-
/O.EXB.KPHI.SC.Y.0061.100916T1700Z-100917T1000Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
334 PM EDT WED SEP 15 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM
EDT FRIDAY. 

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE WINDS AND WAVES TO INCREASE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO GALE FORCE FOR 1
OR 2 HOURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT BUT THE UNCERTAINTY WAS
CONSIDERABLE AND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE WAS NOT LARGE ENOUGH TO
AS YET ISSUE A GALE WATCH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ431-450>455-160900-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0061.100916T1700Z-100917T1000Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
334 PM EDT WED SEP 15 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM
EDT FRIDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO
6 AM EDT FRIDAY. 

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO GALE FORCE FOR 1
OR 2 HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THE UNCERTAINTY WAS CONSIDERABLE AND
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE WAS NOT LARGE ENOUGH TO AS YET ISSUE A GALE
WATCH.

THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL HAVE
TO EVENTUALLY BE EXTENDED INTO THIS WEEKEND FOR OPEN ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE IGOR ARRIVE.

PROJECTIONS ARE FOR THE BIGGEST OF THE SOUTHEAST SWELLS...NEARLY 8
FEET AND A 15 SECOND PERIOD...TO OCCUR HERE THIS SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

THIS WOULD ALSO CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SURF
ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


DRAG

185 
WHUS71 KPHI 160806
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
406 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2010

ANZ450>455-162000-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0061.100916T1700Z-100917T2200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
406 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY. 

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH AS LONG PERIOD
SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE IGOR ARRIVE. THESE SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, PRODUCING
HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ431-162000-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0061.100916T1700Z-100917T1600Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
406 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
NOON EDT FRIDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT FRIDAY. 

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO DROP BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY, AS LONG
PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE IGOR ARRIVE. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE WEEKEND OR BE REISSUED
DURING THE WEEKEND IF THIS DOES OCCUR.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ430-162000-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0061.100916T1700Z-100917T1000Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
406 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY. 

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

RPW

966 
WHUS71 KPHI 161449
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1049 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2010

ANZ450>455-162300-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0061.100916T1700Z-100917T2200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1049 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY. 

WINDS AND SEAS WILL NOTICEABLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT AS A LOCALIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON
A WARM FRONT NEAR BALTIMORE MARYLAND LATE THIS MORNING MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WITH A FEW MINUTES OF WESTERLY
GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AFTER 7 PM THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
ATLANTIC CITY.

EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY... SEAS
WILL REMAIN HIGH BECAUSE OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
IGOR. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK... PRODUCING HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

FIFTEEN SECOND PERIOD SWELLS SHOULD BUILD TO NEARLY 8 FEET THIS
SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ430-162300-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0061.100916T1700Z-100917T1000Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
1049 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY. 

WINDS AND SEAS WILL NOTICEABLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS A LOCALIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON A WARM
FRONT NEAR BALTIMORE MARYLAND LATE THIS MORNING MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ431-162300-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0061.100916T1700Z-100917T1600Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
1049 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY. 

WINDS AND SEAS WILL NOTICEABLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS A LOCALIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON A WARM
FRONT NEAR BALTIMORE MARYLAND LATE THIS MORNING MOVES INTO 
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING.

EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA... ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THIS IS BECAUSE OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS
FROM DISTANT HURRICANE IGOR. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED INTO THE WEEKEND OR BE REISSUED DURING THE WEEKEND IF
THIS DOES OCCUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

DRAG

819 
WHUS71 KPHI 161949
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2010

ANZ450>455-170400-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0061.000000T0000Z-100917T2200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
349 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY. 

THERE IS A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WITH A FEW MINUTES OF WESTERLY
GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF ATLANTIC CITY.

EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY... SEAS
WILL REMAIN HIGH BECAUSE OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT
HURRICANE IGOR. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... PRODUCING HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS.

FIFTEEN SECOND PERIOD SWELLS SHOULD BUILD TO NEARLY 8 FEET THIS
SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ430-170400-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0061.000000T0000Z-100917T1000Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
349 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY. 

WINDS MAY DIMINISH SOONER AND PERMIT THE CANCELLATION OF THIS
ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT. 

OTHERWISE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A WIND GUST TO 35 TO 40
KNOTS IN A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ431-170400-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0061.000000T0000Z-100917T1600Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
349 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY. 

EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA... ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THIS IS BECAUSE OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS
FROM DISTANT HURRICANE IGOR. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED INTO THE WEEKEND OR BE REISSUED DURING THE WEEKEND IF
THIS DOES OCCUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


DRAG

689 
WHUS71 KPHI 170053
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
853 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2010

ANZ430-170200-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0061.000000T0000Z-100917T1000Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
853 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL REMAIN SO INTO FRIDAY. 

$$

ANZ450>455-171200-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0061.000000T0000Z-100917T2200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
853 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY. 


EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY... SEAS
WILL REMAIN HIGH BECAUSE OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT
HURRICANE IGOR. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... PRODUCING HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS.

FIFTEEN SECOND PERIOD SWELLS SHOULD BUILD TO NEARLY 8 FEET THIS
SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ431-171200-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0061.000000T0000Z-100917T1600Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
853 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY. 

EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA... ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. THIS IS BECAUSE OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS
FROM DISTANT HURRICANE IGOR. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED INTO THE WEEKEND OR BE REISSUED DURING THE WEEKEND IF
THIS DOES OCCUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SZATKOWSKI

111 
WHUS71 KPHI 170827
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
427 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2010

ANZ450>455-172000-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0061.000000T0000Z-100918T1000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
427 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY. 

EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH TODAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH
BECAUSE OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE IGOR. THESE
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
PRODUCING HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

8 TO 9 FOOT SWELLS WITH A PERIOD OF 15 SECONDS CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ431-171600-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0061.000000T0000Z-100917T1600Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
427 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY. 

WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY NOON TODAY.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE REISSUED DURING THE
WEEKEND AS LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE IGOR
MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE BAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

RPW

453 
WHUS71 KPHI 171441
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1041 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2010

ANZ431-171545-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0061.000000T0000Z-100917T1600Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
1041 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. 

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 25 KNOTS AND THE ADVISORY FOR THE
LOWER PORTION OF DELAWARE BAY.  

$$

ANZ450>455-172245-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0061.000000T0000Z-100918T1000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1041 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. 

EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH TODAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH
BECAUSE OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE IGOR. 

THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR AREA INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK... PRODUCING HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

EIGHT TO 9 FOOT SWELLS WITH A PERIOD OF 15 SECONDS CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


DRAG

720 
WHUS71 KPHI 171945
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2010

ANZ450>455-180345-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0061.000000T0000Z-100918T1000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
345 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY.

LEFTOVER SEAS NEAR 6 FEET IN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THIS EVENING HAS
CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY THIS WILL BE CONVERTED TO AN ADVISORY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS... AND THEN EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE IGOR WILL BE BUILDING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AFFECT OUR AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
PRODUCING HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

EIGHT TO 9 FOOT SWELLS WITH A PERIOD OF 15 SECONDS CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$


DRAG

988 
WHUS71 KPHI 180100
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
900 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2010

ANZ450>455-180200-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0061.000000T0000Z-100918T1000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
900 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE IVAN ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO
SUNDAY, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS LIKELY WILL BE
NEEDED IN RESPONSE.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1051 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ARRIVE
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH NEW JERSEY EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IN SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL SLIDE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
THIS WEEKEND AND BE REINFORCED EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEGINNING WHAT
COULD BE ANOTHER FAIRLY LONG STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MIN TEMPS WERE TWEAKED BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS, FASTER IN
OUTLYING AREAS, SLOWER FOR URBAN CENTERS. A BAND OF CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH A JET MAXIMUM OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES HAS SAGGED
SOUTH.

THE 12Z NAM 2M TEMPS WERE FAR BETTER THAN THE 12Z NAM 6 HR METMOS
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR OUR AREA WHILE THE LESS RESOLVED 12Z GFS
MAVMOS WAS MUCH BETTER THAN THE 12Z NAM METMOS. NAM METMOS IS NOT
ALWAYS BETTER THAN ITS 2M TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WED...SUNNY TO START THEN SCT-POSSIBLY BKN CU FORM AROUND 7000 FT
DURING THE AFTN. GUSTY NW WINDS 15-20 KTS...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS
THE GUSTS OF THIS TUE AFTN. STILL MIGHT BE FWX SPS MATERIAL?

WED NIGHT...MOCLEAR AND COOL. THIN WISPS OF CIRRUS WILL PEEL OFF
INTO OUR AREAS BETWEEN 06ZN AND 12Z BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT A
VERY NICE REFRESHINGLY CHILLY COUNTRYSIDE NIGHT.

THU...THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE MORNING LOWER IN THE AFTN.
POPS LIKELY OR HIGHER NNJ AND NE PA BUT TAPER TO NON MENTION IN S
DEL AND E MD SHORE WHERE GUSTY SSW WIND TO 30 KNOTS AND UPPER 80S
TEMPS DEVELOP.

SO...TEMPS SHOULD RANGE THE LOWER 70S IN NNJ AND NRN POCONOS TO THE
UPPER 80S IN E MD AND DEL WITH GUSTY SSW FLOW DEVELOPING DURING
THE AFTN OF 20-30 KTS WITH STRONGEST WINDS S OF THE WARM FRONT IN
DEL AND E MD NEAR 21Z. 00Z AND 12Z/14 NAEFS HAS 5MM TO A KMPO-HIGH
POINT NJ LINE BY 00Z/17. WE'LL CALL IT SHOWERS WITH A CHC OF
STRONG LATE DAY TSTMS IN E PA AND N 2/3RDS NJ.

A PATCH OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN SNJ OR THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS EARLY THU AFTN BUT THE MAIN BATCH ADVECT ENEWD INTO E PA
AND NW NJ LATER IN THE DAY!

THU NIGHT...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED STRONG TSTMS EARLY WHERE
TT NEAR 50...STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY SHEAR...SWI SUB ZERO
ACROSS E PA AND N 2/3RDS NJ. SHOWERS PROBABLY DIMINISH OR END
LATE. DID NOT PUT IN HEAVY RAIN GUSTY WINDS ATTM...TO FAR IN
ADVANCE AND PATTERN COULD ADJUST AND REDUCE THE RISK. DOES LOOK
INTERESTING WITH A POSSIBLE AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE.

LOW PROB A SVR EVENT KNEL- KBLM REGION NEWD OVER THE WATER WHERE
BEST INTERSECTION OF TT 50 PLUS...STRONG SWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...SIGNIFICANT NIGHT TIME LATE SUMMER ML CAPE AND DEEP
INSTABILITY.

NOTING 925 WINDS INCREASE TO 50 KTS IN NJ/DEL THU EVE!

MEANWHILE DEL AND MD AND FAR S NJ SHOULD END UP WITH VERY LITTLE
OR NO RAIN -TRACES!? THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEK OF
FIRE WEATHER CONSIDERATIONS.

FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY...DRY SOMEWHAT COOLER NNW FLOW
WITH A STILL WARM 850 AIRMASS TO START THE DAY. HIGHS FROM 60-65
NRN EDGE OF THE FA TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NORTHERN STREAM REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THEN THE SOUTHERN RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD BACK NORTH FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD END FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT
WAVE FOLLOWS ON ITS HEELS FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
THIS SHORT WAVE...AS THE SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH STRETCHING
FROM NEW BRUNSWICK TO OHIO IS DRY. 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR MINUS 14
CELSIUS AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EARLY SHOULD PRODUCE
MODERATE CUMULUS....BUT WILL LEAVE SATURDAY DRY.

MID RANGE MODELS SHOWS 850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO NEAR 17
CELSIUS SUNDAY. WITH ENOUGH MIXING AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW...THIS
SHOULD EQUATE TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THIS WOULD BE A GOOD
5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE MOS. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE FAST FLOW WILL
APPROACH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUNDAY. THE FRONT MAY
COME THROUGH DRY...AS INSTABILITY MAY END UP BEING THE LIMITING
FACTOR. WHILE THE COLUMN MOISTENS IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
(AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 1.50 INCHES)...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING.

WITH LITTLE FOCUS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND NO REAL SYNOPTIC
LIFT...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN MONDAY BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE AND
SURFACE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM QUEBEC. CONTINUED
SIGNALS FROM THE MID RANGE MODELS FOR THE SOUTHERN RIDGE TO BUILD
BACK NORTH MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

850 MB TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR 20 CELSIUS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WHICH COULD EQUAL 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH AN INCREASING WIND FIELD FOR
TUESDAY...COULD MEAN MORE IN THE WAY OF FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS. MORE
ON THIS AS WE GET CLOSER.

MODELS ARE INDICATING INCREASING INSTABILITY FOR TUESDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. WITHOUT A SURFACE FOCUS AND A FAIRLY WEAK
WIND FIELD...WILL OPT TO KEEP TUESDAY DRY. ANY SHOWERS IN THE
PATTERN MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE LAST OF THE MIXING IS DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THE GRADIENT WILL EASE...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW TERMINALS
OUTSIDE OF THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA TO BECOME CALM.

WATCHING THE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS DUCK SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. ALSO WATCHING MORE JET INDUCED MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE TRAJECTORY ON THIS WOULD BRING MID
CLOUDS (PROBABLY SCATTERED) TO THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 0400 UTC AND
0800 UTC. NOT AS MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND AS THERE WAS THIS
TIME MONDAY...SO FOR NOW DID NOT ADD ANY PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE GRADIENT IS NOT AS TIGHT AS THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE DEEP
ENOUGH TO ALLOW ACCESS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OF WIND. GUSTS WERE
INSERTED INTO MOST TERMINAL FORECASTS BETWEEN 1700 UTC AND 2200 UTC
WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LIMITED MOISTURE AND HIGHER
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD YIELD LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CUMULUS.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE, WITH VFR CONDITIONS, WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER FROM
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL RIDGE IN AND THEN BUILD OVER
THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL THEN PASS
TO THE EAST AND ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WATERS THU.

THE LAST OF THE GUSTINESS THIS EVENING IS STILL BRINGING GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE OCEAN AND THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THIS SHOULD
DROP OFF DURING THE MID EVENING HOURS. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD
BECOME NORTH NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND DROP OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW
WINDS TO DROP UNDER 10 KNOTS IN MOST PLACES.

THE GRADIENT IS NOT AS TIGHT FOR WEDNESDAY AS TODAY. THERE COULD BE
SOME GUSTINESS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE AS MOMENTUM TRANSFER OCCURS
DURING DAYTIME HEATING. FURTHER OFFSHORE...THE GRADIENT COULD RELAX
ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS TO TRY TO BACK TO SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND DROP UNDER 10 KNOTS.

THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND. THE GRADIENT APPEARS TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT WINDS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR 44009 THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUGGEST
ACCESS TO 30 KNOTS OF WINDS IN THE LOWERING MIXED LAYER...SO GUSTS
TO 30 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE...ARE POSSIBLE.

THE COMBINATION OF WIND WAVES IN THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FETCH AND
THE FIRST SWELL FROM IGOR COULD RESULT IN ROUGH AND CONFUSED SEAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE 1200 UTC WNAWAVE
MODEL SEEMS OVERDONE WITH THE WIND WAVES...WITH THE FETCH FAVOR
LARGER SEAS TO THE NORTHEAST.

EVEN AFTER THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DIMINISH FRI...THE
SWELLS BEING PRODUCED BY HURRICANE IGOR WILL PROBABLY ARRIVE ON OUR
WATERS. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CRITERIA SWELLS WILL BE ON THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURF CONDITIONS WILL TURN DANGEROUS BY
THEN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT MORE MARGINAL THAN TODAY...AS WINDS MAY GUST
OCCASIONALLY TO 20 MPH.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT RISK INCREASES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
IGOR DRIFTS A BIT CLOSER AND CASTS ITS SWELL NORTHWESTWARD.

SWELLS IN OUR ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO NEARLY 8 FEET BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DRAG/
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI/
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...HAYES
AVIATION...HAYES
MARINE...HAYES
FIRE WEATHER...
RIP CURRENTS...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
607 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>023-027-
PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-152215-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
607 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER RISK IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MARGINAL...CLOSE TO 20 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-152215-
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
607 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND SLOWLY
BUILDING SURF FROM THIS FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND AS
HURRICANE IGOR LURKS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST. PLEASE MONITOR
TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER PROJECTIONS OF IGOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ431-450>455-152215-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
607 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE IGOR COULD BUILD TO
NEARLY 8 FEET THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE MONITOR TROPICAL PREDICTION
CENTER PROJECTIONS OF IGOR AND COASTAL MARINE FORECASTS FROM THE
MOUNT HOLLY OFFICE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-152215-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
607 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.