Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

894 
WWUS51 KPHI 222335
SVSPHI

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
735 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

PAC089-222344-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-100923T0000Z/
MONROE PA-
735 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL MONROE
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NEW
JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4036 7566 4048 7568 4053 7550 4062 7531
      4069 7531 4078 7516 4084 7499 4073 7498
      4067 7475 4055 7476 4045 7488 4038 7498
      4032 7515
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 287DEG 43KT 4072 7500 4061 7492
          4047 7503 4044 7541 4036 7547 4034 7548

$$

NJC019-041-PAC011-017-077-091-095-230000-
/O.CON.KPHI.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-100923T0000Z/
WARREN NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-MONTGOMERY PA-BERKS PA-LEHIGH PA-
NORTHAMPTON PA-BUCKS PA-
735 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN BUCKS...SOUTHEASTERN NORTHAMPTON...SOUTHEASTERN
LEHIGH...EAST CENTRAL BERKS...NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...HUNTERDON AND
SOUTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTIES...

AT 731 PM EDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS REPORTED.  THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PLEASANT VALLEY TO
CLINTON TO ERWINNA TO GERYVILLE TO RED HILL...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES EAST OF EASTON TO 14 MILES EAST OF EASTON TO
16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EASTON TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF ALLENTOWN TO 15
MILES SOUTH OF ALLENTOWN TO 17 MILES SOUTH OF ALLENTOWN...MOVING EAST
AT 50 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HAMPTON...TINICUM TOWNSHIP...GLEN GARDNER...ANNANDALE...
SERGEANTSVILLE...HIGH BRIDGE...SAND BROOK...BEDMINSTER...
PIPERSVILLE...FLEMINGTON...SELLERSVILLE...PERKASIE...BYRAM...
LEBANON...SILVERDALE...LUMBERVILLE...WHITE HOUSE STATION...DUBLIN...
STOCKTON...ROBESONIA AND GARDENVILLE

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NEW
JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4036 7566 4048 7568 4053 7550 4062 7531
      4069 7531 4078 7516 4084 7499 4073 7498
      4067 7475 4055 7476 4045 7488 4038 7498
      4032 7515
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 287DEG 43KT 4072 7500 4061 7492
          4047 7503 4044 7541 4036 7547 4034 7548

$$

DRAG

499 
WWUS51 KPHI 222345
SVSPHI

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
745 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

NJC041-PAC011-077-095-222354-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-100923T0000Z/
WARREN NJ-BERKS PA-LEHIGH PA-NORTHAMPTON PA-
745 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTHAMPTON...
SOUTHEASTERN LEHIGH...EAST CENTRAL BERKS AND SOUTHWESTERN WARREN
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NEW
JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4035 7550 4046 7543 4050 7528 4053 7519
      4058 7511 4063 7501 4072 7493 4070 7488
      4067 7475 4055 7476 4045 7488 4038 7498
      4032 7515
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 287DEG 43KT 4068 7485 4057 7477
          4049 7479 4043 7488 4040 7526 4032 7532
          4031 7533

$$

NJC019-PAC017-091-230000-
/O.CON.KPHI.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-100923T0000Z/
HUNTERDON NJ-MONTGOMERY PA-BUCKS PA-
745 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN BUCKS...NORTH CENTRAL MONTGOMERY AND CENTRAL
HUNTERDON COUNTIES...

AT 742 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM HIGH BRIDGE TO WHITE HOUSE STATION TO FLEMINGTON TO 
SERGEANTSVILLE TO PERKASIE TO SELLERSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SILVERDALE...LUMBERVILLE...STOCKTON...DUBLIN...GARDENVILLE AND
ROBESONIA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NEW
JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

LAT...LON 4035 7550 4046 7543 4050 7528 4053 7519
      4058 7511 4063 7501 4072 7493 4070 7488
      4067 7475 4055 7476 4045 7488 4038 7498
      4032 7515
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 287DEG 43KT 4068 7485 4057 7477
          4049 7479 4043 7488 4040 7526 4032 7532
          4031 7533

$$

DRAG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING...AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING
IN THE CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
LATER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, BUT LOW PRESSURE MAINLY WEST OF OUR
AREA MAY AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 11:00 PM THIS EVENING. ACTIVE WEATHER IS RAPIDLY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TONIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EVEN NEAR 90 AT A COUPLE OF SPOTS... WERE CAUSING
MUCH MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. LIFTED INDICES OF MINUS 2 TO MINUS
4 WERE NOTED ON MSAS DATA JUST TO OUR WEST. DEVELOPING LINES OF
CUMULUS OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND DOWN ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
WILL SPAWN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SHORT LINES OR CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY GENERATE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MORE LIKELY ISSUE AS OPPOSED TO LARGE HAIL.
STORMS WERE MOVING FASTER WEST OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE UPPER
WINDS WERE A BIT STRONGER...BUT SOUTHERN AREAS WERE MORE UNSTABLE
AND MAY ALSO GENERATE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WINDS.
A SUPERCELL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ALTHOUGH THIS DOES SEEM TO BE A
MUCH DIFFERENT SCENARIO THAN LAST THURSDAY...WHICH WAS WARM-
FRONTALLY RELATED. WE NOTE THAT HELICITY OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
IS RATHER HIGH...MAYBE JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. ENHANCED
WORDING WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

AFTER THE DIURNAL EFFECTS RELEASE AND THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF.
SOME DRIER AIR MAY BEGIN TO MOVE IN...BUT EVEN SO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY REMAIN HIGH...AND GFS MOS DOES GENERATE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
FOR A FEW OF THE MORE RURAL SITES. FOR NOW PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED FOR
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ELSEWHERE AS
THE SITUATION DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT.

MOS TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE AND WERE USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT APPEARS TO SETTLE JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY...BUT
WILL FAIRLY RAPIDLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATER THURSDAY
AND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FRONTAL FORCING AND TERRAIN
EFFECTS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS KEPT FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE AN ACTIVE UPPER FLOW WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER FRONT APPEARING
ON THE SCENE LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY DITHERING INTO
SATURDAY IF THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS TURN OUT TO BE MORE CORRECT...WHICH
THE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE UPON. SO...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WAS KEPT FOR THE EASTERN ZONES SATURDAY.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY IN THE SHORT TERM...AS A PRE-FRONTAL
FLOW AND EXPECTED ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO HEAT
UP. THE WARMER NAM MOS...WHICH ACTUALLY SHOWED MORE OF A DIURNAL
RANGE...WAS PREFERRED FOR NOW AND ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP GENERALLY IS COMPRISED OF ENERGY DROPPING DOWN
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
DEVELOPING TROUGH MAY TEND TO BECOME A LARGE CLOSED/CUTOFF LOW AS
THE FLOW BECOMES SEPARATED. IT APPEARS THAT THIS SETUP HINGES ON HOW
MUCH ENERGY DIVES OUT OF SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL CANADA AND THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES BY SUNDAY. ALSO,
WHETHER OR NOT SHORT WAVE ENERGY NEARING THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL THE SYSTEM MORE
NORTHEASTWARD. DESPITE THE MODEL GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGER PICTURE, THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
SPREAD REGARDING THE DETAILS. IF THE CLOSED LOW CAN REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH SOUTHWEST, ENOUGH RIDGING COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE EAST COAST.
HOWEVER, THE OVERALL ADVERTISED PICTURE APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP TO
BE AN OVERRUNNING TYPE ONE WITH A MOISTURE SURGE SO SOME CAUTION IS
ACKNOWLEDGED. HPC LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AS
THESE HAVE SHOWN THE BEST CONTINUITY DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. WE
INITIALIZED THE DATABASE WITH HPC GUIDANCE BUT DID MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION.

BASED ON THE ABOVE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SETTLING SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ALONG IT. AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST, PUSHING THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT FARTHER TO
OUR SOUTH. AS A CLOSED LOW STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, A SURFACE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WITH A POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH UP
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE A WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE HIGH MAY
DEVELOP. THIS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING
MONDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CLOSED LOW, AIMED AT THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT TRYING TO
LIFT INTO OUR AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME COOL AIR DAMMING AS THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW OCCLUDES TO OUR WEST, THEREFORE PERHAPS AN OVERRUNNING
SCENARIO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WE WILL
CARRY SHOWER CHCS INSTEAD OF RAIN. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EASE OFF
THE COAST WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH THIS COULD BE SLOWER DEPENDING ON THE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW. AS A RESULT, MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED. WE PAINTED IN SLIGHT CHC
POPS TO START THEN RAMPED UP TO CHC POPS MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD. IT WAS
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY THUNDER INCLUSION GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH
ANY INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY HPC GUIDANCE, BUT DID MAKE
SOME TWEAKS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE FOLLOWED THE CURRENT THINKING OF BEST CONVECTIVE
CHANCES AT KRDG AND KABE WITH LESS CONFIDENCE AND LESS OVERALL
COVERAGE FOR THE TERMINALS FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST.

MODELS CORRECTLY FORECASTED CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG A DEVELOPING
TROF IN CENTRAL PA AND MD. THIS IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER NWRN PA AND WRN NY. THE BEST FORCING FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST. GIVEN WHERE THE CURRENT
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING, THIS IS THE TIMING OF OUR MVFR CONDITION
TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRAS AT BOTH KABE AND KRDG.

FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE OF THE
CONVECTION MAKING IT INTO THE KPHL METRO AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING AND
WHETHER OR NOT SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE LEE SIDE WOULD HAVE AN
IMPACT ON SPECIFIC TERMINALS. FOR THIS REASON ONLY CB CLOUD GROUPS
WERE CARRIED FROM THE KPHL TERMINAL AREA SEWD TO THE KACY AND KMIV.
IF WE ARE WRONG THE FRONT END START TIME IN THE CB GROUP IS THE MOST
LIKELY TIME OF TSRA ACTIVITY.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS ALOFT ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE A BIT IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON, SO
THE GREATEST GUSTINESS SHOULD OCCUR EARLIER. A SEA BREEZE FRONT
SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT AWAY FROM THE COAST BECAUSE
OF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE.

THE COLD FRONT ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO LIMP THROUGH THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE LIGHT AND SOME FOG MAY
FORM TOWARD MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHERE CONVECTION AND
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. THE AIR MASS ITSELF ABOVE THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING WILL BE PRETTY DRY AND ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF, OTHER THAN
POSSIBLY SOME CIRRUS, NO OTHER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND ENVISION A SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL MAKE
A FARTHER INLAND PENETRATION THAN THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...MOSTLY OUTSIDE OF THE METRO TERMINALS. THE SOUTHWEST
WIND COULD GUST TO 25 KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...BUT FOR NOW FRIDAY LOOKS DRY.

THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. DURING THE TIMEFRAME THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND (POSSIBLE THUNDER) WITH THE FRONT.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING FOG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS
MAINLY VFR INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT THE END OF THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD THERE IS A FAIRLY LARGE MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCE AS TO WHEN
THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE IFR CONDITIONS
AFFECTS US.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN THIS EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EAST...SO WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT STARTS A SLOW APPROACH FROM
THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS ACTUALLY LOOKS TO BE
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE FETCH WILL ALSO
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SEAS...BUT THE WAVEWATCH MODEL MAY BE TOO
HIGH AGAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE OCEAN WATERS. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP SEAS BELOW 5 FEET INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
PERSISTENT FETCH COULD RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT SEAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT
AND SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SEAS COULD TAKE A BIT
LONGER TO DROP OFF AS THE SWELL SLOWLY SUBSIDES. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA COULD SET UP A NORTHEAST SWELL
SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY BRING SEAS ON THE OCEAN BACK TO SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THE END OF THE CURRENT
DETERMINISTIC FORECAST PERIOD THERE IS A FAIRLY LARGE MODEL TIMING
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHEN THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM THAT WILL
AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PROBLEMS CONTINUE WITH THE KDIX RADAR. A RETURN TO SERVICE IS
UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS.../
NEAR TERM.../
SHORT TERM.../
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI
MARINE...GIGI
EQUIPMENT... / DRAG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
354 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>023-027-
PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-232000-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
354 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 683 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-232000-
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
354 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 683 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

ALSO...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ450>455-232000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
354 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 683 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ430-431-232000-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
354 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 683 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
449 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

MDZ008-PAZ067-222145-
CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-
449 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT CECIL AND CHESTER COUNTIES...

AT 447 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES WEST OF
LANCASTER TO 29 MILES NORTH OF BALTIMORE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR ROCK SPRINGS...ATGLEN AROUND 530 PM...
SOUTH COATESVILLE AND OXFORD AROUND 545 PM.

IF THESE STORMS MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER
TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3973 7615 3978 7607 3985 7603 3987 7601
      3992 7601 4009 7594 4007 7550 3958 7596
      3959 7613 3962 7616 3965 7617 3969 7623
      3972 7624

FORECASTER: DRAG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
527 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

MDZ008-PAZ067-222215-
CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-
527 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF CECIL AND CHESTER
COUNTIES...

AT 524 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 21 MILES SOUTH OF LANCASTER...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR ROCK SPRINGS...RICHARDSMERE
AROUND 530 PM...CALVERT...RISING SUN AROUND 545 PM...ANDORA AND FAIR
HILL AROUND 600 PM.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS, MOVE INDOORS
WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM, AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND
ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3974 7613 3980 7606 3978 7579 3948 7579
      3958 7612 3962 7616 3965 7617 3969 7623
      3972 7624

FORECASTER: GORSE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
548 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ055-062-222315-
HUNTERDON NJ-MONROE PA-MORRIS NJ-NORTHAMPTON PA-SOMERSET NJ-SUSSEX
NJ-WARREN NJ-
548 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HUNTERDON...MONROE...MORRIS...
NORTHAMPTON...SOMERSET...SUSSEX AND WARREN COUNTIES...

AT 542 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WILKES-BARRE TO 13
MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILKES-BARRE TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF LEHIGHTON...
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR POCONO
RACEWAY...LONG POND AROUND 600 PM...SKYTOP...TOBYHANNA AROUND 615
PM...ECHO LAKE...ROXBURG AROUND 630 PM...PLEASANT VALLEY...
FLATBROOKVILLE AROUND 645 PM...BRANCHVILLE AND HAMBURG AROUND 700 PM.

WARNINGS WERE IN EFFECT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL IN THE
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS THROUGH 615 PM.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS WHEN THEY ENTER NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.

EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER
TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 4123 7514 4116 7516 4115 7509 4109 7503
      4111 7495 4120 7487 4116 7444 4104 7449
      4104 7444 4101 7438 4088 7433 4063 7450
      4079 7561 4082 7548 4094 7557 4099 7550
      4113 7566 4123 7554 4125 7537

FORECASTER:DRAG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
558 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

PAZ054-060-061-222300-
BERKS PA-CARBON PA-LEHIGH PA-
558 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BERKS...CARBON AND LEHIGH
COUNTIES...

AT 556 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 27 MILES WEST OF
LEHIGHTON TO 29 MILES WEST OF LEHIGHTON TO 31 MILES WEST OF LEHIGHTON
TO 33 MILES WEST OF LEHIGHTON TO 37 MILES NORTHWEST OF READING TO 52
MILES NORTHWEST OF LANCASTER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR STRAUSSTOWN...PORT CLINTON AROUND 630
PM...NEW TRIPOLI...CLAUSSVILLE AROUND 645 PM...LYONS AND KENHORST
AROUND 700 PM.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THE WARNING FURTHER NORTH IN THE POCONOS CONTINUES THROUGH 615 PM.

EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM ANY OF THESE STORMS. DO NOT SEEK
SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A
THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 4051 7643 4054 7618 4060 7605 4059 7603
      4064 7600 4072 7583 4084 7592 4080 7585
      4074 7580 4064 7543 4048 7567 4040 7573
      4036 7582 4023 7600 4023 7604 4049 7644

FORECASTER:  DRAG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
612 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEHIGHTON               40.83N 75.72W
09/22/2010                   CARBON             PA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            10 TO 12 TREES REPORTED DOWN AROUND CARBON COUNTY.

&&

MEOLA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
658 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEHIGHTON               40.83N 75.72W
09/22/2010                   CARBON             PA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            10 TO 12 TREES REPORTED DOWN AROUND CARBON COUNTY.

0635 PM     TSTM WND DMG     UPPER MOUNT BETHEL TWP  40.90N 75.17W
09/22/2010                   NORTHAMPTON        PA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND WIRES REPORTED DOWN ACROSS UPPER MOUNT BETHEL
            TOWNSHIP.

&&

MEOLA