River Flood Warning 84, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

708 
WGUS81 KPHI 012117
FLSPHI
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MT HOLLY, NEW JERSEY
517 PM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW JERSEY...
PENNSYLVANIA...
 
  DELAWARE RIVER NEAR TOCKS ISLAND AFFECTING SUSSEX...WARREN...MONROE AND
  NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES 
  DELAWARE RIVER AT EASTON-PHILLIPSBURG BRIDGE AFFECTING WARREN...
  NORTHAMPTON AND HUNTERDON COUNTIES 
  DELAWARE RIVER AT RIEGELSVILLE AFFECTING HUNTERDON...MERCER AND BUCKS 
  COUNTIES 
  DELAWARE RIVER AT FRENCHTOWN AFFECTING HUNTERDON AND BUCKS COUNTIES 
  DELAWARE RIVER AT STOCKTON AFFECTING HUNTERDON AND BUCKS COUNTIES 
  DELAWARE RIVER AT NEW HOPE-LAMBERTVILLE BRIDGE AFFECTING HUNTERDON...
  MERCER AND BUCKS COUNTIES 
  DELAWARE RIVER AT TRENTON AFFECTING MERCER AND BUCKS COUNTIES 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK.

&&

NJC037-041-PAC089-095-020717-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FL.W.0078.101002T0600Z-101003T0040Z/
/TKSN4.1.ER.101002T0600Z.101002T1100Z.101002T1840Z.NO/
517 PM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DELAWARE RIVER NEAR TOCKS ISLAND.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO SATURDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT  4:15 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 21.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 22.4 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER WILL
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 21.0 FEET...APPROACH ROADS TO SHAWNEE INN FLOOD

$$

NJC037-041-PAC089-095-020717-
/O.ROU.KPHI.HY.S.0000.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BVDN4.N.UU.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
517 PM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

FORECAST INFORMATION FOR
  DELAWARE RIVER AT BELVIDERE.
* AT  4:30 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET. 
* NO FLOODING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 18.0 FEET EARLY TOMORROW 
  AFTERNOON.


$$

NJC019-041-PAC095-020717-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FL.W.0079.101002T0618Z-101003T0900Z/
/ESTN4.1.ER.101002T0618Z.101002T1800Z.101003T0300Z.NO/
517 PM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DELAWARE RIVER AT EASTON-PHILLIPSBURG BRIDGE.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT  4:30 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 24.4 FEET BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TOMORROW EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...FLOODING IN EASTON UP TO RIVERSIDE STREET

$$

NJC019-021-PAC017-020716-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FL.W.0080.101002T0800Z-101003T0645Z/
/RGLN4.1.ER.101002T0800Z.101002T1700Z.101003T0045Z.NO/
517 PM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DELAWARE RIVER AT RIEGELSVILLE.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT  4:30 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 23.2 FEET BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW EVENING.

$$

NJC019-PAC017-020716-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FL.W.0081.101002T1200Z-101003T0000Z/
/FREN4.1.ER.101002T1200Z.101002T1200Z.101002T1800Z.NO/
517 PM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DELAWARE RIVER AT FRENCHTOWN.
* FROM SATURDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT  4:00 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW 
  MORNING.

$$

NJC019-PAC017-020716-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FL.W.0082.101002T1800Z-101003T0000Z/
/STKN4.1.ER.101002T1800Z.101002T1800Z.101002T1800Z.NO/
517 PM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DELAWARE RIVER AT STOCKTON.
* FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT  5:00 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE EARLY 
  TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...MILL STREET IN STOCKTON FLOODED AS WELL AS BULL
  ISLAND CAMPGROUNDS

$$

NJC019-021-PAC017-020716-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FL.W.0083.101002T1200Z-101002T1800Z/
/NHPP1.1.ER.101002T1200Z.101002T1200Z.101002T1200Z.NO/
517 PM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DELAWARE RIVER AT NEW HOPE-LAMBERTVILLE BRIDGE.
* FROM SATURDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT  4:45 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW 
  MORNING.


$$

NJC019-021-PAC017-020716-
/O.ROU.KPHI.HY.S.0000.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WASN4.N.UU.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
517 PM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

FORECAST INFORMATION FOR
  DELAWARE RIVER AT WASHINGTON'S CROSSING.
* AT  7:00 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 3.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET. 
* NO FLOODING IS FORECAST
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 15.6 FEET EARLY TOMORROW 
  AFTERNOON.


$$

NJC021-PAC017-020716-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FL.W.0084.101002T1200Z-101002T1800Z/
/TREN4.1.ER.101002T1200Z.101002T1200Z.101002T1200Z.NO/
517 PM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DELAWARE RIVER AT TRENTON.
* FROM SATURDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT  4:15 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW 
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 18.5 FEET...WATER BEGINS ENTERING LEVEL 1 OF THE PARKING 
  GARAGE AT STATE CAPITOL BUILDING

$$

                   FLD      OBSERVED          FORECAST
 LOCATION          STG    STG  DAY TIME       CREST

DELAWARE RIVER
  TOCKS ISLAND     21.0   11.40  FRI 4 PM    22.4  SAT 7 AM 
  BELVIDERE        22.0   10.34  FRI 4 PM    18.0  SAT 2 PM 
  EASTON-PHILLIPS  22.0   13.70  FRI 4 PM    24.4  SAT 2 PM 
  RIEGELSVILLE     22.0   15.15  FRI 4 PM    23.2  SAT 1 PM 
  FRENCHTOWN       16.0   10.39  FRI 4 PM    16.0  SAT 8 AM 
  STOCKTON         18.0   11.15  FRI 5 PM    18.0  SAT 2 PM 
  NEW HOPE-LAMBER  13.0    7.51  FRI 5 PM    13.0  SAT 8 AM 
  WASHINGTON'S CR  20.0    3.32  FRI 7 AM    15.6  SAT 2 PM 
  TRENTON          20.0   15.07  FRI 4 PM    20.0  SAT 8 AM 

&&

549 
WGUS81 KPHI 020114
FLSPHI
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MT HOLLY, NEW JERSEY
914 PM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW 
JERSEY...PENNSYLVANIA...
 
  DELAWARE RIVER AT FRENCHTOWN AFFECTING HUNTERDON AND BUCKS COUNTIES
  DELAWARE RIVER AT NEW HOPE-LAMBERTVILLE BRIDGE AFFECTING HUNTERDON...
  MERCER AND BUCKS COUNTIES
  DELAWARE RIVER AT TRENTON AFFECTING MERCER AND BUCKS COUNTIES
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW JERSEY...
PENNSYLVANIA...
 
  DELAWARE RIVER NEAR TOCKS ISLAND AFFECTING SUSSEX...WARREN...MONROE AND
  NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES 
  DELAWARE RIVER AT EASTON-PHILLIPSBURG BRIDGE AFFECTING WARREN...
  NORTHAMPTON AND HUNTERDON COUNTIES 
  DELAWARE RIVER AT RIEGELSVILLE AFFECTING HUNTERDON...MERCER AND BUCKS 
  COUNTIES 
  DELAWARE RIVER AT STOCKTON AFFECTING HUNTERDON AND BUCKS COUNTIES 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK.

&&

NJC037-041-PAC089-095-021114-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FL.W.0078.101002T0700Z-101003T0043Z/
/TKSN4.1.ER.101002T0700Z.101002T1200Z.101002T1843Z.NO/
914 PM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DELAWARE RIVER NEAR TOCKS ISLAND.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO SATURDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT  8:15 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 21.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 21.6 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 21.0 FEET...APPROACH ROADS TO SHAWNEE INN FLOOD

$$

NJC019-041-PAC095-021114-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FL.W.0079.101002T0630Z-101003T0800Z/
/ESTN4.1.ER.101002T0630Z.101002T1200Z.101003T0200Z.NO/
914 PM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DELAWARE RIVER AT EASTON-PHILLIPSBURG BRIDGE.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT  8:30 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 24.2 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER WILL
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TOMORROW EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 26.0 FEET...FLOODING IN EASTON UP TO RIVERSIDE STREET

$$

NJC019-021-PAC017-021114-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FL.W.0080.101002T0800Z-101003T0730Z/
/RGLN4.1.ER.101002T0800Z.101002T1600Z.101003T0130Z.NO/
914 PM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DELAWARE RIVER AT RIEGELSVILLE.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT  8:30 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 23.4 FEET BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE TOMORROW EVENING.

$$

NJC019-PAC017-020144-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FL.W.0081.000000T0000Z-101003T0000Z/
/FREN4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
914 PM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE DELAWARE RIVER AT FRENCHTOWN.
* AT  8:00 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 14.9 FEET EARLY 
  TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...MARSHALL ISLAND UNDER WATER

$$

NJC019-PAC017-021000-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FL.W.0082.101002T0400Z-101002T1000Z/
/STKN4.1.ER.101002T0400Z.101002T0400Z.101002T0400Z.NO/
914 PM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE DELAWARE RIVER AT STOCKTON.
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:00 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE AFTER 
  MIDNIGHT TOMORROW.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...MILL STREET IN STOCKTON FLOODED AS WELL AS BULL
  ISLAND CAMPGROUNDS

$$

NJC019-021-PAC017-020144-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FL.W.0083.000000T0000Z-101002T1800Z/
/NHPP1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
914 PM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE DELAWARE RIVER AT NEW HOPE-LAMBERTVILLE BRIDGE.
* AT  8:45 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 11.8 FEET 
  TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


$$

NJC021-PAC017-020144-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FL.W.0084.000000T0000Z-101002T1800Z/
/TREN4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
914 PM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE DELAWARE RIVER AT TRENTON.
* AT  8:15 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 19.2 FEET 
  TOMORROW EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 18.5 FEET...WATER BEGINS ENTERING LEVEL 1 OF THE PARKING 
  GARAGE AT STATE CAPITOL BUILDING

$$

                   FLD      OBSERVED          FORECAST
 LOCATION          STG    STG  DAY TIME       CREST

DELAWARE RIVER
  TOCKS ISLAND     21.0   10.68  FRI 8 PM    21.6  SAT 8 AM 
  EASTON-PHILLIPS  22.0   16.61  FRI 8 PM    24.2  SAT 8 AM 
  RIEGELSVILLE     22.0   16.23  FRI 8 PM    23.4  SAT 12 PM
  FRENCHTOWN       16.0   10.55  FRI 8 PM    14.9  SAT 2 PM BELOW FLOOD STAGE
  STOCKTON         18.0   11.29  FRI 9 PM    17.5  SAT 12 AM
  NEW HOPE-LAMBER  13.0    7.59  FRI 9 PM    11.8  SAT 5 PM BELOW FLOOD STAGE
  TRENTON          20.0   15.35  FRI 8 PM    19.2  SAT 8 PM BELOW FLOOD SATGE

&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
644 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA THIS
MORNING BUT RECEDE NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. A NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS LOW SATURDAY AND PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. PERIODIC LOW PRESSURE COULD BE A FEATURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 5 AM...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE DROPPED AS THE BAND OF HEAVY
RAIN ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE...AND WINDS ARE
NO LONGER NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ALSO THE FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED AS THE SITUATION HAS
TRANSITIONED TO WARNINGS...AND RAIN WILL BE ENDING SOON.

OTHERWISE...RAIN WAS ENDING RAPIDLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 AM.

AS FROM BEFORE...THE RUC SEEMED TO BE HANDLING THIS EXTREMELY
DYNAMIC MESOSCALE RAIN AND WIND EVENT PRETTY WELL EARLY THIS
MORNING. ALSO...THE NAM UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS, WHICH
INITIALIZED WELL, SEEMED TO CAPTURE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION BANDS. THE MAIN BAND...EMANATING FROM THE LOW OVER
LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AT 08Z...EXTENDED NORTHWARD UP THE DELAWARE
VALLEY ALONG A SURFACE FRONT. ANOTHER BAND DOG-LEGGED
SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE LOWER DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS LOW AND FRONT
WILL BE FORCED EAST OF DUE NORTH AS IT TRAVELS UP THE COAST DUE TO
THE ORIENTATION OF THE 700 HPA WINDS...WHICH ARE DIFFERENT THAN
THEY WERE THIS TIME THURSDAY MORNING AS THE CLOSED LOW WAS
OPENING. SO...THE DELAWARE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO GET HEAVY RAIN
FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN BAND LIFTS ONLY
SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 3 TO
5 INCHES OF RAIN WILL STAND TO RECEIVE ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES AND
LOCALLY MORE THROUGH 10 TO 13Z. WITH THE SOUTHERN PRECIPITATION
AREA ORIENTED AS IT IS...AND THE ENTIRE AREA MOVING EASTWARD...
THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT EASTERN NEW JERSEY WILL PICK
UP RAIN WITH THIS GO-ROUND...PERHAPS 1 OR 2 INCHES AND LOCALLY 3
THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

RAIN HAD ENDED SOUTH AND WILL END TOWARD THE NORTH FAIRLY RAPIDLY
THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE WAS NOT MUCH TO CHOOSE BETWEEN FROM THE MOS TEMPERATURES...
PREVIOUS GRIDS WERE CLOSE FOR HIGHS TODAY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIETER WEATHER AWAITS IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...THE HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS OF THE RAIN FROM THURSDAY AND TODAY WILL EXTEND INTO THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE STRONG LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL
NEW ENGLAND AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

UNFORTUNATELY MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY AND CONTINUE SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THE
ATMOSPHERE IN OUR REGION WILL BE DRIER AND MORE STABLE WITH LITTLE
IF ANY RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOL FOR THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE SOUTHERN POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE SOME PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES
THAT MAKE ALL OF THE DIFFERENCE WITH REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER.
BECAUSE OF THIS...THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
BEYOND ARE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ECMWF AND THE 1200 UTC GFS ARE STILL HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CLOSING SYSTEM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DIFFERENTLY...AS THE
ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER AND MORE CLOSED OFF...WHILE THE GFS IS BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SINCE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS...THIS IS THE MODEL OF
CHOICE FOR THE BULK OF THE THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

THIS SHOULD KEEP SURFACE DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. THE AIR-MASS
WILL MODIFY WITH TIME...BUT THERE STILL SEEMS TO BE A SHOT AT SOME
FROST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS THE LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE...EAST OF THE CLOSED MID
LEVEL SYSTEM. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL INTO WEDNESDAY.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE POSITION OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BE THE KEY TO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. RIGHT NOW...IT
WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WOULD BE WITH THE
SURFACE WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CURRENT...998MB SFC LOW AT 4AM EDT JUST N OF CAPE MAY WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE FINE LINE COOL FRONT PASSING THRU E NJ. THREAT FOR SVR WITH
THE FINE LINE ENDS WITH WSHIFT TO GUSTY NW.

AFTER 11Z...LEFTOVER MORNING IFR AND MVFR CONDS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
LOW WILL BECOME VFR CIGS NEAR 4000 FT BY NOON. NW WIND 25-35 KT
DURING THE DAY.

TONIGHT...VFR CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR. SCT TO BKN AT 4000 FT IN THE AFTN..DIURNAL DRIVEN.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIURNAL CIGS 3000-4000 DEVELOPING MIDDAY.

NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTHWEST
MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN WILL EXTEND FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. BECAUSE OF THE LARGE
MODEL SPREAD CONFIDENCE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SHOULD BE VIEWED
AS LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...DEL BAY SCA ALL DAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. ATLC COASTAL WATERS GALE WILL CONVERT SCA AFTER 8AM
OR NEED EXTENSION AS A GALE. AM ANTICIPATING SPOTTY NW GALES NJ
AND DEL COASTS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON...WASNT SURE IF ENOUGH TO
WARRANT GALE.

TONIGHT AND SAT...LEFTOVER MAINLY SCA SEAS ATLC COASTAL WATERS.

FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BUILD NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE FORECASTING ANOTHER
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF
THE CAROLINAS. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO WILL INCREASE WINDS
AND SEAS AGAIN. CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE SCENARIO IS NOT HIGH, BUT THE
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE OCEAN WATERS, THE GREATER THE CHANCES FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. NOTE ALSO THAT POTENCY
OF THE GALE MAY BE INCREASED SINCE THERE MAY BE A TROPICAL CONNECTION
TO THE INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OUR 88D STP DATA WAS ABOUT 10 TO 20 PCT SHY OF REALITY...SO WE HAVE
EASILY EXCEEDED 10 INCHES OF RAIN IN ISOLATED SECTIONS OF EASTERN
PA.

THIS WAS A MAJOR RAINFALL EVENT FOR PARTS OF E PA AND N DEL AND E
MD AND NW NJ HILLS OF SUSSEX AND WARREN COUNTIES... WIDESPREAD 5 TO
8 INCH RAINS WITH ISOLATED 10.5 INCHES.

MUCH MUCH MORE DATA WILL FOLLOW IN THE PNS/S TODAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONITORING UPPER DEL AND CHES BAY THIS MORNING BUT NO FURTHER
ADVISORY OR WARNING ATTM.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...ASTRO TIDE CYCLES INCREASE AND ALL THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT POSITIVE TIDAL
DEPARTURES.

ODDS FAVOR AT LEAST A MINOR OCEAN INUNDATION EVENT WITH 8 TO 10
FOOT SEAS COMPOUNDING MATTERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG THE ATLC
COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SUCCESSIVE RECORD DAILY RAINFALLS YESTERDAY AND TODAY AT KABE KPHL
KILG AND ARE ALL POSTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

SYNOPSIS...O'HARA
NEAR TERM...O'HARA/
SHORT TERM...O'HARA
LONG TERM...HAYES
AVIATION...DRAG 642
MARINE...DRAG 642
HYDROLOGY...642
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...642

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
752 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>023-027-
PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-021200-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
752 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ONGOING STREAM FLOODING IN PARTS OF THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE DELAWARE VALLEY...WILL OCCUR FROM THE RAIN THAT JUST
ENDED...OR IS TO END SHORTLY. SEE THE ASSOCIATED FLOOD WARNINGS
FOR SPECIFIC INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-021200-
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
752 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM
A COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS BUILDING OCEAN WAVES
TO 8 FEET AND A SMALL SURGE ADDED TO THE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450>455-021200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
752 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-021200-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
752 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
507 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

NJZ012>014-020-022-025>027-011000-
ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
MIDDLESEX NJ-OCEAN NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
507 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

...SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT MIDDLESEX...MONMOUTH...
OCEAN...ATLANTIC AND BURLINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 503 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PERTH AMBOY TO 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF ATLANTIC CITY...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THE SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR TOMS RIVER...TINTON
FALLS...SILVERTON...SHREWSBURY AROUND 515 AM...SANDY HOOK...WEST
LONG BRANCH...WANAMASSA...TUCKERTON AROUND 520 AM...ELBERON AND WEST
BELMAR AROUND 525 AM.

AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS.

LAT...LON 4027 7397 3968 7412 3951 7426 3950 7433
      3953 7434 3953 7440 3949 7438 3947 7429
      3936 7440 3936 7446 3938 7446 3939 7469
      3996 7434 4010 7434 4045 7425 4046 7412
      4041 7399 4047 7402 4047 7399 4041 7396

HAYES