Gale Warning 22, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

757 
WHUS71 KPHI 141920
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
320 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

ANZ430-431-450>455-151000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SC.Y.0072.101015T0200Z-101015T0900Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.W.0022.101015T0900Z-101017T0000Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
320 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM
EDT FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 1000 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 500 AM FRIDAY. A
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 500 AM FRIDAY UNTIL 800 PM
SATURDAY.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL INTENSIFY AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR CAPE COD ON FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
MOVING TOWARD AND OVER CANADA'S ATLANTIC PROVINCES DURING THE
WEEKEND.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS. THE WIND SHOULD BECOME NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEST
TO NORTHWEST WIND AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO GUST TO 35 TO
40 KNOTS.

WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS THAT WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND A PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSEL. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THOSE RANGES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING A SMALL
VESSEL, SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT DURING THE ADVISORY PERIOD.

&&

$$

IOVINO

048 
WHUS71 KPHI 150135
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

ANZ430-431-450>455-150945-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0072.101015T0200Z-101015T0900Z/
/O.EXT.KPHI.GL.W.0022.101015T0600Z-101017T0000Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
935 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM
FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY AND REPLACES THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

GALE FORCE WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 2 AM AND 5 AM FRIDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING FOR
COASTAL SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 40
KNOTS IN MANY PARTS OF THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

DRAG

630 
WHUS71 KPHI 150738
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010

ANZ430-431-450>455-152030-
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-101017T0000Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
338 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY. 

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NEAR NANTUCKET ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL REACH THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN HEAD TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE MARITIMES
THIS WEEKEND.

WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

241 
WHUS71 KPHI 151425
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1025 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010

ANZ430-431-450>455-152100-
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-101017T0000Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1025 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM SATURDAY.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE LATE THIS MORNING
WILL HEAD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS THAT WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND A PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSEL. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE REMAIN IN
PORT.

&&

$$

943 
WHUS71 KPHI 151920
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
320 PM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010

ANZ430-431-450>455-161000-
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-101017T0000Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
320 PM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM SATURDAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE MAINE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DRIFT EAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A
GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WIND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE INTO SATURDAY. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
GRADUALLY DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS THAT WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND A PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSEL. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE REMAIN IN
PORT.

&&

$$

IOVINO

128 
WHUS71 KPHI 160133
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
933 PM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010

ANZ430-431-450>455-160945-
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-101017T0000Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
933 PM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY. 

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 30 TO 40 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY
IN THE WAKE OF SLOWLY DEPARTING STRONG LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MAINE
COAST. ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
SANDY HOOK.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY INTO THE MARITIMES 
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHEN WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS THAT WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND A PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSEL. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE REMAIN IN
PORT.

&&

$$

634 
WHUS71 KPHI 160700
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
300 AM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010

ANZ430-431-450>455-162000-
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-101017T0000Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
300 AM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 30 TO 40 KNOTS AT TIMES TODAY AND INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF SLOWLY-DEPARTING AND STRONG LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE MAINE COAST. ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS TO
NEAR 45 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MONMOUTH COUNTY NEW JERSEY
COASTAL WATERS INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS THAT WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND A PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSEL. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE REMAIN IN
PORT.

&&

$$

078 
WHUS71 KPHI 161933
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
333 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010

ANZ430-431-450>455-170000-
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-101017T0000Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
333 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG SLOWLY-DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS THAT WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND A PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSEL. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE REMAIN IN
PORT.

&&

$$

RPW

234 
WHUS71 KPHI 162151
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
551 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010

ANZ430-431-452>455-170600-
/O.CAN.KPHI.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-101017T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.SC.Y.0073.101016T2151Z-101017T1000Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
551 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY. THE
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND
AROUND 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG SLOWLY DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
 
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ450-451-170000-
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-101017T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
551 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS THAT WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND A PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSEL. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE REMAIN IN
PORT.

&&

$$


TFG

136 
WHUS71 KPHI 170000
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010

ANZ450-451-171000-
/O.CAN.KPHI.GL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-101017T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KPHI.SC.Y.0073.000000T0000Z-101017T1000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY. THE
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF A STRONG SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THEY SHOULD DECREASE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA TOWARD MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-452>455-171000-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0073.000000T0000Z-101017T1000Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY. 

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF A STRONG SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THEY SHOULD DECREASE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA TOWARD MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

TFG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
333 AM EDT THU OCT 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST
TODAY. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
DURING TODAY, THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS INTENSE STORM WILL
MEANDER NEAR THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND
MOVING EASTWARD LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA MONDAY, WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY TRACKING ALONG IT MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THESE FEATURES THEN SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED SOUTH OF THIS LOW
INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM THIS
LOW ACROSS THE VIRGINIA'S THEN DOWN INTO THE CAROLINA'S. HIGH
PRESSURE WAS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED A
SHARP TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH STRONG
SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN IT. A POTENT 300 MB JET WAS FROM
THE MIDWEST INTO CENTRAL CANADA. A SECOND 300 MB JET CORE WAS
LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.

A RATHER DYNAMIC SETUP SHAPING UP AS A POTENT COASTAL STORM DEVELOPS
BUT THE MAIN FORCE BEING FELT NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. THE MAIN
FEATURE OF NOTE IS AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND MID ATLANTIC. AS VERY STRONG ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE TROUGH AND HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC, THE
TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF WITH CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. JUST HOW FAST THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS
WILL DETERMINE THE SCOPE OF RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA, AND ALSO ANY
CONVECTIVE CHCS. THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE TO
SLOW DOWN THE RAIN OVERSPREADING OUR AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON
A LITTLE LONGER WITH ITS ASSOCIATED DRY AIR. WE THEREFORE FOLLOWED
THIS AND SLOWED DOWN THE RAMPING UP OF THE POPS TODAY FROM WEST TO
EAST. WHILE THERE IS WAA AND THETA-E ADVECTION FORECAST, THIS DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE REALLY ROBUST, THEREFORE HOLDING THE HIGHER PW
VALUES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES ON EASTWARD. THE POSSIBLE
FLY IN THE OINTMENT HERE IS IF THE COASTAL LOW GETS GOING FARTHER
WEST, PUTTING SOME OF OUR AREA MORE INTO A SMALL WARM SECTOR. THIS
WOULD INTRODUCE A HIGHER CONVECTIVE THREAT, WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED
A LITTLE LATER.

OVERALL, THE CONSENSUS IS FOR A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF MARYLAND AND THEN STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY AS IT
MOVES NORTHWARD. AS THE INCOMING AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TRIES
TO TAKE ON A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT LATE IN THE DAY, STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. AN AREA OF
TIGHTENING THERMAL FIELDS AND THE CLOSING OFF OF THE TROUGH, WILL
PRODUCE STRONG VERTICAL LIFT OWING TO AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS OCCURS AS IT
DEPENDS ON THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION ALONG
WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE BOARD DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE
STORM. THE NAM/WRF STILL LOOKS SLOWER AND FARTHEST WEST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE WHICH APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER, THEREFORE WE WILL NOT GO
COMPLETELY WITH ITS SOLUTION.

AS FOR THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT ALL
DEPENDS ON THE DEVELOPMENT LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW. ANY
CONVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SURFACE BASED EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER
THE OCEAN. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND EVEN
FACTORING IN THE FARTHER WEST NAM/WRF, OUR AREA REALLY DOES NOT GET
INTO A TRUE WARM SECTOR. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE DELMARVA AS INFLOW ALLOWS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO OCCUR AND THE SHEAR PROFILES ARE QUITE HEALTHY. THIS
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF HIGH SHEAR AND LOW CAPE. SPC HAS
SHIFTED THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FARTHER SOUTH AND WE CONCUR
WITH THIS. IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS, IT PROBABLY WOULD BE LOW-TOPPED
AND ELEVATED. CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING IS LOW, THEREFORE
WILL JUST CARRY A CHC OF A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY USED A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE.
REGARDING RAINFALL AMOUNTS, WE USED HPC QPF GUIDANCE WITH A FEW
TWEAKS. THIS GAVE ON AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE CWA. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE FOCUSED WHERE THE WRAPAROUND BAND PIVOTS
WITHIN THE DEFORMATION AXIS, WHICH AS OF NOW LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. OTHER THAN LOCAL URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING
THE HEIGHT OF THE RAINFALL, WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM
GIVEN THE FAIRLY QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM/FORCING. A MENTION
WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WE WILL TRANSITION FROM A RAIN EVENT TO
A STRONG WIND EVENT. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARD
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND, INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH CLOSING OFF WILL ALLOW FOR THE LOW TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE PULLED TOWARD THE
CLOSED MIDLEVEL CENTER, WHICH WOULD BRING IT VERY NEAR SOUTHEASTERN
NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL TAKE THE DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS FORCING
QUICKLY TO OUR NORTH DURING THE EVENING, ENDING THE RAIN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER THE POPS DOWN
FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, HIGHER POPS WILL LINGER
THE LONGEST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
HINTING AT WRAPAROUND MOISTURE LINGERING. THE SKY SHOULD TEND TO
PARTIALLY CLEAR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE FLOW
BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
AREA. AS A RESULT, WE TIGHTENED UP THE GRADIENT IN THE SKY GRIDS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY, THE INTENSE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND AND MEANDER AROUND AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM BECOMES
STACKED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN THIS
INTENSE STORM TO OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST.
STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH CAA WILL WILL ALLOW FOR A
DEEPENING MIXING LAYER THROUGH THE DAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
VARIED REGARDING THE OVERALL WIND FIELD, BUT THE CONSENSUS IS FOR A
WINDY DAY FRIDAY. THERE ARE NO BIG PRESSURE RISES FORECAST TO OCCUR
SINCE THE SURFACE HIGH IS SO FAR BACK TO THE WEST. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME 40 KNOTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR FRIDAY. BASED ON THE MODEL GUIDANCE, WE ADJUSTED THE WINDS
ESPECIALLY THE GUSTS UPWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THE MORE SUNSHINE
THAT OCCURS, THE BETTER CHC OF STRONGER WINDS GETTING MIXED DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. DESPITE DRIER AIR AND A STRONG DOWNSLOPING FLOW, A FEW
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ESPECIALLY IN A
CHANNELIZED FASHION MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS
WERE USED WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE
LINGERING WRAPAROUND. THE WINDS MAY TEND TO DIMINISH SOME FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE CAA IS NOT REAL STRONG AND THE VERTICAL MIXING
WANES. THE WIND ASPECT OF THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

FOR SATURDAY, A SIMILAR SETUP WITH THE INTENSE STORM GRADUALLY
MOVING EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE WIND
FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER FOR A TIME SATURDAY AS A POTENT LOW
TO MID LEVEL WIND MAX ROTATES AROUND THE CLOSED LOW. DURING DAYTIME
HEATING, THE DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HELP MIX DOWN STRONGER
WINDS FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FOR A
TIME WINDS NEARING 50 KNOTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A WIND ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR
SATURDAY AS WELL. WE DID ADJUST THE WINDS UP SATURDAY ESPECIALLY THE
GUSTS. THE WINDS MAY ACTUALLY START TO DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND THE STRONG CYCLONIC
FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE BULK OF THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
IS ANTICIPATED TO BE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH PERHAPS SOME
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES. THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
WERE PAINTED ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING COASTAL STORM
AND PERHAPS ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS WAS UTILIZED
WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THIS TIME FRAME, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO
THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE, THE
INTENSE STORM NEAR NEW ENGLAND WILL BE WEAKENING AND MOVING FARTHER
AWAY. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT COLLAPSES, BUT THEY SHOULD BE
TRENDING TOWARD DIMINISHING. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO EXTEND EASTWARD
FROM A LOW IN THE MIDWEST, WHICH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS TO BE A QUESTION OF HOW
MUCH FORCING OCCURS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT DROPS INTO
OUR AREA. A SURFACE LOW MAY TRAVEL ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, WHICH WOULD
IMPACT THE LARGE SCALE LIFT AND POTENTIALLY ORGANIZE AN AREA OF
OVERRUNNING TYPE RAIN. FOR NOW, WE WILL JUST KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS GOING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE WITH THE TIMING AND OVERALL FRONTAL/SYNOPTIC FORCING.

THE BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY BE
LURKING TO OUR NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST UNDERGOES SOME ADDITIONAL
AMPLIFICATION. OVERALL, WE GENERALLY DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES, ALTHOUGH DID BLEND IN A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE 00Z
MOSGUIDE TO SOME GRIDS TO INTRODUCE SOME NEW MODEL GUIDANCE TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE NOSING DOWN FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT THE SURFACE
AND A FLAT RIDGE IN THE MID LEVELS IS PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. CIRRUS IS STATING TO OVERRUNNING
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE...AND WILL COVER THE SKY BY 1200 UTC. THIS
SHOULD KEEP FOG TO A MINIMUM THIS MORNING...AFTER A DECENT AMOUNT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA IN ADVANCE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES...THE RAIN SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. THE RAIN SHOULD
COME IN BETWEEN 1600 AND 2000 UTC FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. AS
THE RAIN STARTS...CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP FROM VFR TO IFR
QUICKLY...AND STAY THERE THROUGH 0000 UTC.

THE 0000 UTC NAM LOOKS TOO FAR WEST WITH THE SURFACE LOW...AND THIS
PROBABLY REDUCES THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST. MODEL
CONSENSUS BRINGS THE WIND SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 0100 UTC
AND 0500 UTC. AFTER THE WIND SHIFT OCCURS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR AS THE RAIN ENDS...AND MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDER THE INVERSION.

IN ADDITION...THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER INCREASES...AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 0500 UTC...WITH ALL
TERMINALS GUSTING BY 1000 UTC FRIDAY. CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE TO
VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT KRDG AND KABE BETWEEN 0800 UTC AND 1200
UTC FRIDAY. UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS COULD KEEP CEILINGS MVFR AT THOSE
LOCATIONS THROUGH 1200 UTC.

.OUTLOOK...
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BECOME VFR FRIDAY MORNING AS SKIES CLEAR IN THE
WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD ALLOW
ACCESS TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS OF WIND DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS ON.
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE ALL TERMINALS TO SEE GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS
DURING FRIDAY.

WINDS COULD DROP OFF FOR A TIME FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS TRY
TO STRATIFY. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE WEST WINDS GUST TO 35 KNOTS (OR
HIGHER) SATURDAY WITH ESSENTIALLY CLEAR SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH LESS WIND.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE ONSET TIME OF THE GALE FORCE
WINDS LATE TONIGHT...AND THE ULTIMATE DURATION OF THE GALE FORCE
GUSTS.

AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WINDS
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5
FEET...SO NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY.

THERE IS SOME MODEL SPREAD ON JUST HOW QUICKLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND BEGIN TO GUST. AT THIS POINT...WILL BASED THE TIMING ON
THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER 0000 UTC GFS TIMING THIS WOULD PLACE GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 0700 UTC AND 1000 UTC FRIDAY.
THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER SUGGESTS THAT WINDS COULD GUST TO 40
KNOTS FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY AS
IT PULLS AWAY.

THE BEST GRADIENT FOR FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LATER INCREASES TO ABOVE 500 FEET
IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND THIS WOULD ALLOW ACCESS TO 40 KNOTS
OF WIND. THIS WOULD SUPPORT UPGRADING THE GALE WATCH IN PLACE TO A
GALE WARNING FOR ALL WATERS STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO FRIDAY.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A BREAK IN THE GRADIENT FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE
SURFACE LOW WAITS FOR ANOTHER PIECE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY TO DEEPEN
FURTHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW THE DELAWARE
BAY TO HAVE A BREAK FROM THE GALE CONDITIONS (AND POSSIBLY THE
SOUTHERNMOST OCEAN WATERS) FOR A TIME FRIDAY NIGHT.

HOWEVER...ANOTHER TIGHTENING OF THE SURFACE GRADIENT SATURDAY SHOULD
BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO GALE. WHILE THERE MAY BE A BREAK FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR SOME LOCATION...AM INCLINED TO ISSUE THE GALE WARNING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...TAKING THIS BREAK INTO ACCOUNT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANOTHER SURGE OF WIND SATURDAY MORNING...WITH 40
KNOTS AVAILABLE AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION...WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THE GRADIENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD STAY ABOVE SMALL CRAFT RANGE THROUGH
SUNDAY...BEFORE BACKING OFF AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NOT EXPECTING ANY COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
STORM IN THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CONSIDERATION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
BLOW OUT TIDES DURING THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BE GUSTING TO GALE FORCE COMING UP
THE LOW TIDE CYCLE FRIDAY EVENING. BASED ON THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM
SURGE GUIDANCE...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT TIDES WILL BE RUNNING BETWEEN
1.5 AND 2.0 FEET BELOW PREDICTED JUST BEFORE THE LOW TIDE CYCLE.
THIS WOULD KEEP ALL SITES ABOVE THE -1.8 FT BENCHMARK FOR BLOWOUT
TIDES AROUND THAT TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...HAYES
MARINE...HAYES
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAYES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
403 PM EDT WED OCT 13 2010

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ001-007>010-012>020-022-025>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-142015-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
403 PM EDT WED OCT 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS. LOCAL AREAS OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE RAINFALL.

IN ADDITION, STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FROM
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS COULD GUST TO 30 TO 40 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002>004-MDZ015-019-020-NJZ021-023-024-142015-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
CUMBERLAND-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
403 PM EDT WED OCT 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS. LOCAL AREAS OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE RAINFALL.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

IN ADDITION, STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FROM
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS COULD GUST TO 30 TO 40 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450>452-142015-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
403 PM EDT WED OCT 13 2010

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-453>455-142015-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
403 PM EDT WED OCT 13 2010

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.