Alert archive / New Jersey / Flood Watches in 2010
Flood Watch 5, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this flood watch at Sep 29, 2010, 3:52 AM EDT for 4 states. It took effect at Sep 30, 2010, 2:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 27 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 29, 2010, 3:52 AM EDT (07:52 UTC)
- In effect from
- Sep 30, 2010, 2:00 AM EDT
- Expired
- Oct 1, 2010, 5:05 AM EDT
- In force
- 27 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
- Flood severity
- None
All 31 counties
Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Sussex County, DE, Caroline County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Kent County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Atlantic County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Cape May County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Berks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA
The radar
The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 00:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 219 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 33 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -20 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1484 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 49 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -9 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 83 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
726 WGUS61 KPHI 290752 FFAPHI URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 352 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010 ...HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE FLOODING FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT... .TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE UP THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND MOVE AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT. DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054- 055-060>062-067>071-292000- /O.NEW.KPHI.FA.A.0005.100930T0600Z-101001T0400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD- QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON- SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM- GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND- ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC- COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH- NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN... REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON... DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON... SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON... PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN... MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON... CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY... LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE... STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...WEST CHESTER... NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA 352 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND... NEW JERSEY AND PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS... IN DELAWARE...DELAWARE BEACHES...INLAND SUSSEX...KENT AND NEW CASTLE. IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CAROLINE...CECIL...KENT MD... QUEEN ANNES AND TALBOT. IN NEW JERSEY...ATLANTIC...ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY...CAMDEN...CAPE MAY...COASTAL ATLANTIC... COASTAL OCEAN...CUMBERLAND...EASTERN MONMOUTH...GLOUCESTER... HUNTERDON...MERCER...MIDDLESEX...MORRIS...NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON...OCEAN...SALEM...SOMERSET...SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON...SUSSEX...WARREN AND WESTERN MONMOUTH. IN PENNSYLVANIA...BERKS...BUCKS...CARBON...CHESTER...DELAWARE... LEHIGH...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...NORTHAMPTON AND PHILADELPHIA. * FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING * LOW PRESSURE WITH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH EXTREMELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...A STRONG STORM INFLOW...AND LOTS OF INSTABILITY...RAIN BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF OUR AREA. TOTAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 2 TO 4 INCHES...BUT LOCAL AMOUNTS MAY BE UP TO 6 OR 7 INCHES. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST COULD CHANGE...AT THIS TIME THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST MARYLAND SHORE...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE...AND WESTERN NEW JERSEY. SLIGHTLY LESSER ALTHOUGH STILL HEAVY AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR CLOSER TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST. * RECENT HEAVY RAINS OVER PARTS OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS HAVE ELEVATED STREAM LEVELS AND GROUND MOISTURE TO SOME DEGREE. ALTHOUGH OTHER AREAS EXPERIENCED LESS RAIN AND SOIL MOISTURE MAY BE LESS...COPIOUS RAIN AND ESPECIALLY ENHANCED RAIN RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FLOOD THREAT. SO...THERE IS A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS APPROACHING RAIN-MAKER THROUGHOUT OUR AREA...AND THIS MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SERIOUS FLOODING FOR THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE FIRST ON THE SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS...BUT MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE SOMEWHAT LATER FOR SOME OF THE LARGER RIVERS. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO CAUSE LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-195 IN NEW JERSEY AND THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... ESPECIALLY IF THEY TRAIN OVER LOCAL AREAS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN HILLY AREAS...SUCH AS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN POCONOS AS WELL AS NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$
6 follow-up statements
428 WGUS61 KPHI 291928 FFAPHI URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 328 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010 DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054- 055-060>062-067>071-301000- /O.EXT.KPHI.FA.A.0005.100930T0600Z-101001T2000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD- QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON- SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM- GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND- ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC- COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH- NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN... REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON... DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON... SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON... PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN... MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON... CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY... LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE... STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...WEST CHESTER... NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA 328 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010 ...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR * PORTIONS OF DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NEW JERSEY AND PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN DELAWARE... DELAWARE BEACHES...INLAND SUSSEX...KENT AND NEW CASTLE. IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CAROLINE...CECIL...KENT MD...QUEEN ANNES AND TALBOT. IN NEW JERSEY...ATLANTIC...ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY...CAMDEN...CAPE MAY...COASTAL ATLANTIC...COASTAL OCEAN... CUMBERLAND...EASTERN MONMOUTH...GLOUCESTER...HUNTERDON... MERCER...MIDDLESEX...MORRIS...NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON... OCEAN...SALEM...SOMERSET...SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON...SUSSEX... WARREN AND WESTERN MONMOUTH. IN PENNSYLVANIA...BERKS...BUCKS... CARBON...CHESTER...DELAWARE...LEHIGH...MONROE...MONTGOMERY... NORTHAMPTON AND PHILADELPHIA. * FROM 2 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON * LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST WILL RACE UP THE COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TO THE REGION...STARTING LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE THREAT CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE NEXT BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 6 INCHES. * AT THIS TIME...THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS. IF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEED 4 INCHES OVER ANY OF THE LARGER RIVER BASINS... SUCH AS THE PASSAIC...RARITAN OR RANCOCAS BASINS...RIVER FLOODING BECOMES POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ HAYES
577 WGUS61 KPHI 300730 FFAPHI FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 330 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010 DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054- 055-060>062-067>071-302000- /O.CON.KPHI.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-101001T2000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD- QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON- SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM- GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND- ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC- COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH- NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN... REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON... DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON... SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON... PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN... MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON... CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY... LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE... STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...WEST CHESTER... NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA 330 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NEW JERSEY AND PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN DELAWARE... DELAWARE BEACHES...INLAND SUSSEX...KENT AND NEW CASTLE. IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CAROLINE...CECIL...KENT MD...QUEEN ANNES AND TALBOT. IN NEW JERSEY...ATLANTIC...ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY...CAMDEN...CAPE MAY...COASTAL ATLANTIC...COASTAL OCEAN... CUMBERLAND...EASTERN MONMOUTH...GLOUCESTER...HUNTERDON... MERCER...MIDDLESEX...MORRIS...NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON... OCEAN...SALEM...SOMERSET...SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON...SUSSEX... WARREN AND WESTERN MONMOUTH. IN PENNSYLVANIA...BERKS...BUCKS... CARBON...CHESTER...DELAWARE...LEHIGH...MONROE...MONTGOMERY... NORTHAMPTON AND PHILADELPHIA. * THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON * TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY...AND AS THE LOW EXTENDS FAR TO THE SOUTH...IT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE REGION. JUST BEFORE SUNRISE HEAVY RAIN WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THIS RAIN WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING. WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR AREA...INCLUDING NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND PARTS OF DELAWARE...WILL GET THE FIRST ROUND OF THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST RAIN. THEN AS THE BAND OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. RAIN IS FORECAST TO TAPER DOWN FRIDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 6 INCHES. * AT THIS TIME...THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIKELY TO RESULT IN FLOODING OF SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS. IF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEED 4 INCHES OVER OR UPSTREAM FROM ANY OF THE LARGER RIVER BASINS...SUCH AS THE PASSAIC...RARITAN OR RANCOCAS BASINS...RIVER FLOODING BECOMES POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING OCCURS. && $$
324 WGUS61 KPHI 301928 FFAPHI FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 328 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010 DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054- 055-060>062-067>071-010400- /O.CON.KPHI.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-101001T2000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD- QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON- SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM- GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND- ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC- COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH- NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN... REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON... DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON... SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON... PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN... MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON... CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY... LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE... STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...WEST CHESTER... NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA 328 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NEW JERSEY AND PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN DELAWARE... DELAWARE BEACHES...INLAND SUSSEX...KENT AND NEW CASTLE. IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CAROLINE...CECIL...KENT MD...QUEEN ANNES AND TALBOT. IN NEW JERSEY...ATLANTIC...ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY...CAMDEN...CAPE MAY...COASTAL ATLANTIC...COASTAL OCEAN... CUMBERLAND...EASTERN MONMOUTH...GLOUCESTER...HUNTERDON... MERCER...MIDDLESEX...MORRIS...NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON... OCEAN...SALEM...SOMERSET...SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON...SUSSEX... WARREN AND WESTERN MONMOUTH. IN PENNSYLVANIA...BERKS...BUCKS... CARBON...CHESTER...DELAWARE...LEHIGH...MONROE...MONTGOMERY... NORTHAMPTON AND PHILADELPHIA. * THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON * HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER VIRGINIA HAS MAINLY AFFECTED EASTERN MARYLAND AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. IN THESE AREAS...BETWEEN 2.00 AND 3.50 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN THUS FAR. AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MOVES NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... LOOK FOR THE HEAVY RAIN TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS DELAWARE AND WESTERN NEW JERSEY. THE RAIN SHOULD END FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SECOND LOW MOVES AWAY. BY THE TIME THE RAIN ENDS...STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 7 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. * AT THIS TIME...THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING OF SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS. IN LOCATIONS WHERE WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS EXCEED 4 OR 5 INCHES...RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING OCCURS. && $$ HAYES
187 WGUS61 KPHI 010151 FFAPHI FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 951 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010 DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054- 055-060>062-067>071-011015- /O.CON.KPHI.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-101001T2000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD- QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON- SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM- GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND- ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC- COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH- NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN... REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON... DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON... SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON... PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN... MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON... CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY... LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE... STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...WEST CHESTER... NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA 951 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NEW JERSEY AND PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN DELAWARE... DELAWARE BEACHES...INLAND SUSSEX...KENT AND NEW CASTLE. IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CAROLINE...CECIL...KENT MD...QUEEN ANNES AND TALBOT. IN NEW JERSEY...ATLANTIC...ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY...CAMDEN...CAPE MAY...COASTAL ATLANTIC...COASTAL OCEAN... CUMBERLAND...EASTERN MONMOUTH...GLOUCESTER...HUNTERDON... MERCER...MIDDLESEX...MORRIS...NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON... OCEAN...SALEM...SOMERSET...SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON...SUSSEX... WARREN AND WESTERN MONMOUTH. IN PENNSYLVANIA...BERKS...BUCKS... CARBON...CHESTER...DELAWARE...LEHIGH...MONROE...MONTGOMERY... NORTHAMPTON AND PHILADELPHIA. * THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON * LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT... CROSSING THE REGION LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THUS FAR...RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM ABOUT AN INCH OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NEW JERSEY TO AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE NEXT SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...TAPERING OFF LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 7 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. * THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS PROMPTED FLOOD WARNINGS FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNYSLVANIA... WESTERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND WESTERN DELAWARE. IN ADDITION...RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING OCCURS. && $$ HAYES
477 WGUS61 KPHI 010745 FFAPHI FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 345 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010 DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054- 055-060>062-067>071-011600- /O.CON.KPHI.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-101001T2000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD- QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON- SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM- GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND- ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC- COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH- NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN... REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON... DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON... SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON... PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN... MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON... CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY... LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE... STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...WEST CHESTER... NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA 345 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010 ...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NEW JERSEY AND PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN DELAWARE... DELAWARE BEACHES...INLAND SUSSEX...KENT AND NEW CASTLE. IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CAROLINE...CECIL...KENT MD...QUEEN ANNES AND TALBOT. IN NEW JERSEY...ATLANTIC...ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY...CAMDEN...CAPE MAY...COASTAL ATLANTIC...COASTAL OCEAN... CUMBERLAND...EASTERN MONMOUTH...GLOUCESTER...HUNTERDON... MERCER...MIDDLESEX...MORRIS...NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON... OCEAN...SALEM...SOMERSET...SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON...SUSSEX... WARREN AND WESTERN MONMOUTH. IN PENNSYLVANIA...BERKS...BUCKS... CARBON...CHESTER...DELAWARE...LEHIGH...MONROE...MONTGOMERY... NORTHAMPTON AND PHILADELPHIA. * THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON * LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH MID MORNING...AND THEN PASS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WAS AFFECTING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FLOODING HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE SOUTH AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...BUT THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OF THURSDAY AND THE ADDITIONAL RAIN OF THIS MORNING WAS LEADING TO A VERY SERIOUS AND DANGEROUS FLOODING SITUATION IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE DELAWARE VALLEY REGION. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES HAVE BEEN COMMON AROUND THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. LOCAL STORM TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS MAY REACH 10 INCHES. THE LEAST RAIN SO FAR HAS BEEN OVER EASTERN NEW JERSEY...BUT THESE AREAS WILL GET THEIR SHARE OF 1 OR 2 LOCALLY 3 INCHES AS THE LOW MOVES UP THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. * THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS PROMPTED MANY FLOOD WARNINGS FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...WESTERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND WESTERN DELAWARE. IN ADDITION...RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO BECOMING MORE LIKELY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING OCCURS. && $$
801 WGUS61 KPHI 010905 FFAPHI FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 505 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010 DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054- 055-060>062-067>071-011015- /O.CAN.KPHI.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-101001T2000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD- QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON- SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM- GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND- ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC- COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH- NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN... REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON... DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON... SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON... PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN... MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON... CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY... LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE... STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...WEST CHESTER... NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA 505 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010 ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND... NEW JERSEY AND PENNSYLVANIA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY AND THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING YIELDED PROLONGED AND VERY HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA. AT 5:00 AM THE RAIN HAD ENDED OVER DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND...AND WAS ENDING RAPIDLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND ARE IN EFFECT. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON STREAM FLOODING. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OBSERVED. HEED EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Sep 29, 3:45 AM EDT, 7 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 29, 3:45 AM EDT, 7 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS POTENT LOW
WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND ALONG THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WILL BUILD SLOWLY TOWARD OUR AREA DURING THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEATHER WHICH QUIETED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL TAKE A TURN
FOR THE WORSE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AS A POTENT STORM GATHERS
ENERGY AND HEADS NORTHWARD FROM FLORIDA TODAY. THE MAIN EFFECTS
WILL BE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...WITH SOME LEFTOVERS
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE HYDROLOGY PLAYS OUT. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING OVER OUR REGION THIS MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE DYING TROUGH NOW JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS
WERE ALREADY THREATENING OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BEFORE SUNRISE...AND
THESE WILL MOVE INTO DELAWARE MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY LATER
THIS MORNING. WHERE SKIES CLEARED, WINDS WERE LIGHT, AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINED HIGH...PATCHY FOG WAS OCCURRING OVER NORTHWESTERN
NEW JERSEY. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
AS CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA SOME RAIN WILL MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL ZONES LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON
RESPECTIVELY...HOWEVER THE MAIN EVENT SEEMS TO BE WAITING FOR
TONIGHT. TIMING FOR TODAY ON THE GFS AND NAM...AND EVEN THE RECENTLY
ARRIVED ECMWF...WAS VERY SIMILAR. SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL
FADE BY LATE MORNING SOUTH AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON CENTRAL AND NORTH.
MOS TEMPERATURES WERE SIMILAR AND WERE USED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAINFALL STARTING IN EARNEST LATER TONIGHT...AT ITS HEIGHT THURSDAY
AND TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT...IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE
EXCESSIVE AND MAY CAUSE FLOODING AND EVEN SOME FLASH FLOODING AS THE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WORK TO CREATE A POTENTIALLY SERIOUS
SITUATION. WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND STRONG STORM INFLOW TO
THE REGION...ACTING ON UPSLOPE AREAS IN SOME CASES...THE SITUATION
DICTATES THAT A FLOOD WATCH BE ISSUED. WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS THOUGHT
TO BE FOR STREAMS AND CREEKS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME OF THE LARGER
RIVERS AS TIME GOES ON...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA STARTING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND PERSISTING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED. THIS
REPRESENTS SOMEWHAT OF AN INCREASE OVER THE INHERITED FORECAST...
ALSO TAKING INTO ACCOUNTS THE DURATION OF PRECIPITATION. ALSO...
WITH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT...THE AXIS OF HIGHER RAIN
AMOUNTS LOOKS A BIT FURTHER EAST NOW SO RAIN AMOUNTS WERE
INCREASED ACROSS THE BOARD.
EVEN WITH THE PRESENT MODELED STORM TRACK...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE OUR
WESTERN AREAS WILL RECEIVE MORE RAIN THAN THE EAST. PERHAPS THE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL BE THE MAIN TARGET
AREAS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOW NO HIGHER THAN LOW TO ALMOST
MODERATE ON THAT. THE GFS MAY HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES...BUT BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS HAD SOME VERY SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS IN MOISTURE AND OMEGA FIELDS. ISOLATED THUNDER WAS ADDED
TO THE SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THURSDAY BASED ON (MODEST) MODEL CAPES...
ESPECIALLY THE NAM.
AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THURSDAY NIGHT
RAIN IS FORECAST TO TAPER OFF...WITH RESIDUAL RUNOFF THE PROBLEM
THEREAFTER.
THE NEXT PROBLEM IS THE WIND. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A LOWERING
JET ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING. GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING MAY BE LIMITED BY THE STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION...BUT GFS 925 HPA WINDS OF 80 KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND THE NEARBY OFFSHORE WATERS GRAB ONE/S ATTENTION. EVEN
IF HALF OF THAT MIXES TO THE SURFACE...SOME (NEAR) WARNING WIND
GUSTS MAY OCCUR OVER SUSSEX COUNTY DELAWARE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY MAINLY AT AND NEAR THE COASTS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DAMAGE
IN THESE AREAS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF WINDS GUST TO 40 TO
50 KNOTS...SO A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH ONLY MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED TO
SURROUND/AUGMENT THE WATCH/WARNING AREA LATER ON.
FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND COOLER WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST.
INHERITED TEMPERATURES WERE TWEAKED SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST MEX
DATA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS A BIT ON THE UPPER PATTERN AND THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, WE ARE EXPECTING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR
REGION GRADUALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME
FROST IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
AT 233OZ, CONDITIONS WERE VFR AT OUR TAF SITES WITH ONE EXCEPTION.
STRATUS WITH BASES AROUND 800 FEET CONTINUED TO LINGER AT KACY. IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH THE STRATUS WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST AND KACY SHOULD
BECOME VFR BY 0200Z.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK SURFACE FRONT SHOULD PASS ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 0200Z AND 0600Z. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THE WIND
SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 6 0R 8 KNOTS. ONCE THE BOUNDARY
PASSES THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT AND EITHER VARIABLE OR
FROM THE WEST.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION REGARDING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AROUND DAYBREAK
ON WEDNESDAY. THE COMPUTER GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY. HOWEVER, WITH THE WIND BECOMING LIGHT AND WITH THE
RECENT RAINFALL WE HAVE HINTED AT SOME FOG AT KRDG, KTTN AND KMIV.
WE WILL SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT AND
WE WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NECESSARY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. A
FAIRLY LIGHT WIND, LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, SHOULD BACK FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTH AT MOST LOCATIONS.
OUTLOOK...
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT EXISTS FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LESS THAN IDEAL FLYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THAT TIME PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
IS FORECAST TO BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY, SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR WATERS EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS HAVE LOST
THEIR GUSTINESS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN 6 TO 8 FEET, SO THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT, AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT SEAS COULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, BUT THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE UP THE FRONT ALONG THE EAST COAST. HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN IN THE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME
PERIOD. A PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS WITH RESULTANT HIGHER WAVES MAY
OCCUR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY ROUGH
SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL SUPPLY US WITH A FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND AND COULD PROLONG THE ADVISORY WINDS AND/OR SEAS FOR,
AT LEAST, PART OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS WITH MOST STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH, THE TRACK AND
TIMING WILL HAVE A HUGE EFFECT ON WATER LEVELS AND POSSIBLE
TIDAL FLOODING. SINCE WE ARE STILL 36 TO 48 HOURS OUT IN TIME,
WHAT WE CAN TELL IS THAT WE WILL BE KEYING IN ON THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON THURSDAY. WITH GALE FORCE ONSHORE WINDS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY, THE GREATEST TIDAL DEPARTURES COULD OCCUR AT THAT TIME.
THIS COULD PRODUCE TIDAL FLOODING. MINOR LOOKS ALMOST A LOCK.
MODERATE OR GREATER A POSSIBILITY. WE WILL UPDATE THIS AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION THE TROPICAL NATURE OF
THIS IMPENDING RAIN SYSTEM RAISES STRONG CONCERNS THAT EXCESSIVE
RAIN WILL OCCUR...AND AT LEAST MODERATE FLOODING OF AREA STREAMS IS
A LIKELY RESULT. LARGER RIVERS MAY THEN BECOME INVOLVED. 00Z GFS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.75 INCHES REPRESENT A MODEST INCREASE
OVER THE PREVIOUS RUNS...AND SEEM TO BE DISPLACED SLIGHTLY EAST AS
WELL. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF STILL HOLDS ONTO A MORE WESTERN TREND TO
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN...WHILE THE GFS/S AXIS IS UP THROUGH THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. THE PREFERENCE IS TO USE BOTH AS A GEOGRAPHIC
BOUND...BUT HEDGE SLIGHTLY TO THE GFS. WITH THIS IN MIND THE FLOOD
WATCH MAKES SENSE ESPECIALLY WITH TERRAIN INVOLVEMENT AS WELL AS
THUNDERSTORM ENRICHMENT TO RAIN RATES AND AMOUNTS. FOR NOW IT WAS
DEEMED PLAUSIBLE TO INCREASE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST RAIN AMOUNT GRIDS
SLIGHTLY...AND INCREASE PEAK NUMBERS A NOTCH OR TWO. THIS IS STILL
RATHER SCARY...BUT NOT QUITE TO THE GFS NUMBERS.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
STP AT KPHI IS INITED ZERO AT 0247Z IN PREP FOR A MAJOR RAIN E
EVENT THURSDAY. WILL PROBABLY HOLD MARSHALL PALMER R RATES THRU
THIS SYSTEM PREFERRING TO UNDERESTIMATE SLIGHTLY FOR THE EVENT
THAN GROSSLY OVERESTIMATE. ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY NEED TO TRANSITION
TO A TROPICAL R RATE FOR A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD THU AFTN/NIGHT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
NJZ014-023>026.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NJZ022>025.
DE...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
DEZ001>004.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
DEZ004.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-004.
MD...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
&&
SYNOPSIS.../
NEAR TERM.../
SHORT TERM.../
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...DRAG
MARINE...DRAG
HYDROLOGY.../
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRAG
EQUIPMENT...DRAGHazardous weather outlook, Sep 28, 7:51 PM EDT, 8 hours 1 minute before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 751 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010 DEZ001>003-NJZ013-016>023-027-300000- NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-GLOUCESTER- CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON- 751 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS MAY GUST TO 40 MPH AT TIMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-300000- DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY- COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN- 751 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS MAY GUST TO 45 MPH AT TIMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MDZ008-012-015-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071- 300000- CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON- SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- 751 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS MAY GUST TO 40 MPH AT TIMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FLOODING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ANZ450>455-300000- COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM- 751 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY BUILD THE SEAS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ANZ430-431-300000- DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE- 751 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN SOUTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT MAY REACH GALE FORCE. THIS WOULD PRODUCE HIGHER SEAS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 3:49 AM EDT | Gale Watch | PHI | 12 hr | |
| Sep 29, 4:00 AM EDT | High Wind Watch | PHI | Atlantic, Cape May | 11 hr |
| Sep 29, 4:21 AM EDT | High Surf Advisory | PHI | Atlantic, Cape May, Monmouth, Ocean | 50 hr |
| Sep 29, 3:19 PM EDT | Coastal Flood Advisory | PHI | Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester and 3 more | 30 hr |
| Sep 29, 3:24 PM EDT | Wind Advisory | PHI | Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester and 8 more | 38 hr |
| Sep 29, 3:42 PM EDT | Gale Warning | PHI | 40 hr |
Nearby
Flood Watches in New Jersey, 2010Flood Watches in Pennsylvania, 2010Flood Watches in Maryland, 2010Every flood watch in 2010
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.