Flood Watch 1, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

New Castle County, DE, Cecil County, MD, Kent County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Berks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA

374 
WGUS61 KPHI 232059 CCA
FFAPHI

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2010

...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-015-NJZ001-007>010-012-015>019-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-241130-
/O.COR.KPHI.FA.A.0001.100125T0400Z-100125T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
CENTREVILLE...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...
WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
357 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST 
 MARYLAND...NEW JERSEY AND PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE 
 FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN DELAWARE...NEW CASTLE. IN 
 NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CECIL...KENT MD AND QUEEN ANNES. IN NEW 
 JERSEY...CAMDEN...GLOUCESTER...HUNTERDON...MERCER...
 MIDDLESEX...MORRIS...NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON...SALEM...
 SOMERSET...SUSSEX AND WARREN. IN PENNSYLVANIA...BERKS...
 BUCKS...CARBON...CHESTER...DELAWARE...LEHIGH...MONROE...
 MONTGOMERY...NORTHAMPTON AND PHILADELPHIA.

* FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON

* LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL MOIST   
UNSTABLE AIR NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.   
THE RAIN WILL BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT, AND AS A COLD FRONT   APPROACHES 
EARLY MONDAY, AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED   
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP NORTH EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND   BRING 
RAINS ON THE ORDER OF TWO TO THREE INCHES.

* GIVEN THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN, SOME SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL
  REACH THEIR CAUTIONARY STAGE AND SOME MAY REACH FLOOD STAGE
  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. 

* THE HEAVIEST RAINS MAY BE OCCURRING JUST BEFORE OR AFTER THE
  MORNING RUSH HOUR MONDAY AND THIS WILL CREATE FLOODING ON STREETS
  AND UNDERPASSES MAKING FOR A SLOW COMMUTE. 

* IF WE GET INTO A SITUATION WHERE THUNDERSTORMS FORM, HEAVIER
  RAIN TOTALS ARE LIKELY AND SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
  BE BROUGHT TO THE SURFACE IN THUNDERSTORMS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$


EBERWINE

188 
WGUS61 KPHI 240828
FFAPHI

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
328 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-015-NJZ001-007>010-012-015>019-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-242200-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.A.0001.100125T0400Z-100125T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
CENTREVILLE...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...
WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
328 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NEW 
 JERSEY AND PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN 
 NORTHERN DELAWARE...NEW CASTLE. IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...
 CECIL...KENT MD AND QUEEN ANNES. IN NEW JERSEY...CAMDEN...
 GLOUCESTER...HUNTERDON...MERCER...MIDDLESEX...MORRIS...
 NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON...SALEM...SOMERSET...SUSSEX AND 
 WARREN. IN PENNSYLVANIA...BERKS...BUCKS...CARBON...CHESTER...
 DELAWARE...LEHIGH...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...NORTHAMPTON AND 
 PHILADELPHIA.

* FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON

* LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL MOIST
  UNSTABLE AIR NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND MONDAY.
  LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN LATER TODAY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
  EARLY MONDAY...AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS AROUND
  SUNRISE ON MONDAY. EVENT PRECIPITATION TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE ONE
  TO TWO INCHES, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING THREE INCHES.
 
* GIVEN THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN...SOME SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL
  REACH THEIR CAUTIONARY STAGE AND SOME MAY REACH FLOOD STAGE
  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE TYPICAL URBAN
  AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD HAVE AN
  ADVERSE IMPACT ON THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

GIGI

698 
WGUS61 KPHI 241948
FFAPHI

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
248 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-015-NJZ001-007>010-012-015>019-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-251000-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.A.0001.100125T0400Z-100125T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
CENTREVILLE...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...
WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
248 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EST THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NEW 
 JERSEY AND PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN 
 NORTHERN DELAWARE...NEW CASTLE. IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...
 CECIL...KENT MD AND QUEEN ANNES. IN NEW JERSEY...CAMDEN...
 GLOUCESTER...HUNTERDON...MERCER...MIDDLESEX...MORRIS...
 NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON...SALEM...SOMERSET...SUSSEX AND 
 WARREN. IN PENNSYLVANIA...BERKS...BUCKS...CARBON...CHESTER...
 DELAWARE...LEHIGH...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...NORTHAMPTON AND 
 PHILADELPHIA.

* FROM 11 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON

* LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL MOIST UNSTABLE  
  AIR NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. LIGHT  
  RAIN WILL BEGIN LATER THIS EVENING NORTH OF AN APPROACHING WARM    
  FRONT. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY MONDAY, AN AREA OF HEAVY   
  RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA FOR      
  SEVERAL HOURS AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY. STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION  
  SHOULD AVERAGE ONE TO TWO INCHES, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING   
  THREE INCHES.
 
* GIVEN THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN, SOME SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL      
  REACH THEIR CAUTIONARY STAGE, AND SOME MAY REACH FLOOD STAGE       
  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE TYPICAL URBAN     
  AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD HAVE AN    
  ADVERSE IMPACT ON THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

497 
WGUS61 KPHI 250127
FFAPHI

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
827 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXISTS TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-015-NJZ001-007>010-012-015>019-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-251000-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.A.0001.100125T0400Z-100125T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
CENTREVILLE...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...
WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
827 PM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EST THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NEW 
 JERSEY AND PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN 
 NORTHERN DELAWARE...NEW CASTLE. IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...
 CECIL...KENT MD AND QUEEN ANNES. IN NEW JERSEY...CAMDEN...
 GLOUCESTER...HUNTERDON...MERCER...MIDDLESEX...MORRIS...
 NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON...SALEM...SOMERSET...SUSSEX AND 
 WARREN. IN PENNSYLVANIA...BERKS...BUCKS...CARBON...CHESTER...
 DELAWARE...LEHIGH...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...NORTHAMPTON AND 
 PHILADELPHIA.

* FROM 11 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON

* AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL
  MOIST UNSTABLE AIR NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND
  EARLY MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN HAS BEGUN FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA,
  AND WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. AS A COLD
  FRONT APPROACHES EARLY MONDAY, AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND
  POSSIBLY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
  AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY. AREAS NORTH AND WEST
  OF THE PHILADELPHIA REGION HAVE RECEIVED MORE RAIN THIS EVENING,
  GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH THUS FAR, WHILE AREAS
  FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST HAVE RECEIVED LESS, LESS THAN ONE TENTH
  OF AN INCH. AS RAIN INCREASES OVERNIGHT, STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION
  SHOULD AVERAGE ONE TO TWO INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
  APPROACHING THREE INCHES.

* GIVEN THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN, SOME SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL
  REACH THEIR CAUTIONARY STAGE, AND SOME MAY REACH FLOOD STAGE
  DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE TYPICAL URBAN
  AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD HAVE AN
  ADVERSE IMPACT ON THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

097 
WGUS61 KPHI 250841
FFAPHI

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 AM EST MON JAN 25 2010

...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXISTS TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-015-NJZ001-007>010-012-015>019-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-251800-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-100125T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
CENTREVILLE...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...
WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
341 AM EST MON JAN 25 2010

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NEW 
 JERSEY AND PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN 
 NORTHERN DELAWARE...NEW CASTLE. IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...
 CECIL...KENT MD AND QUEEN ANNES. IN NEW JERSEY...CAMDEN...
 GLOUCESTER...HUNTERDON...MERCER...MIDDLESEX...MORRIS...
 NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON...SALEM...SOMERSET...SUSSEX AND 
 WARREN. IN PENNSYLVANIA...BERKS...BUCKS...CARBON...CHESTER...
 DELAWARE...LEHIGH...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...NORTHAMPTON AND 
 PHILADELPHIA.

* UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON

* AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL
  MOIST UNSTABLE AIR NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. THE
  RAIN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS THE MORNING
  PROGRESSES. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER THIS MORNING...AN
  AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
  IN FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 9 AM AND NOON FOR MOST PLACES. RAINFALL
  AMOUNTS THROUGH 3 AM HAVE BEEN MAINLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH.
  STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD AVERAGE ONE TO TWO INCHES...
  WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS APPROACHING THREE INCHES.

* GIVEN THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN... SOME SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS 
 WILL REACH THEIR CAUTIONARY STAGE... AND SOME MAY REACH FLOOD 
 STAGE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE TYPICAL 
 URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD HAVE 
 AN ADVERSE IMPACT ON THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

TFG

127 
WGUS61 KPHI 251315
FFAPHI

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
815 AM EST MON JAN 25 2010

...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-015-NJZ001-007>010-012-015>019-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-252200-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-100125T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
CENTREVILLE...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...
WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
815 AM EST MON JAN 25 2010

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NEW 
 JERSEY AND PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN 
 NORTHERN DELAWARE...NEW CASTLE. IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...
 CECIL...KENT MD AND QUEEN ANNES. IN NEW JERSEY...CAMDEN...
 GLOUCESTER...HUNTERDON...MERCER...MIDDLESEX...MORRIS...
 NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON...SALEM...SOMERSET...SUSSEX AND 
 WARREN. IN PENNSYLVANIA...BERKS...BUCKS...CARBON...CHESTER...
 DELAWARE...LEHIGH...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...NORTHAMPTON AND 
 PHILADELPHIA.

* UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON

* AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL
  MOIST UNSTABLE AIR NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. AS A
  COLD FRONT APPROACHES...AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY
  EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. STORM TOTAL
  PRECIPITATION SHOULD AVERAGE ONE TO TWO INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
  HEAVIER AMOUNTS APPROACHING THREE INCHES.

* GIVEN THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN...SOME SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS COULD
  REACH THEIR CAUTIONARY STAGE...AND SOME MAY REACH FLOOD STAGE
  LATER TODAY OR DURING THE EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE
  TYPICAL URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

KRUZDLO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
315 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND LASTS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE PUSHING A COLD FRONT EAST TO THE COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS FOR PARTS
OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRETTY NICE DAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES JUST AROUND THE
NORMAL FOR TIME OF MONTH. THE OCEAN STORM STILL MAKING AN IMPACT ON
THE MARINE SIDE BUT JUST PUSHING SOME SC ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE. SNOW COVER CLEARLY SEE IN NORTHERN AREAS INTO
CANADA. THE UPPER RIDGE IS GOING TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES MID 20S TO THE FREEZING MARK SOUTH AND EAST. AS FOR THE
MONTH SO FAR, ONLY GED AND TTN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH. IT WILL
BE A REAL FIGHT TO THE END TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH ABOVE/BELOW WE'RE
GOING TO BE AS TEMPERATURES RUN UP NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN COOL
DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AND THEN A SYSTEM MOVES IN DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY AND IT IS GOING TO GET PRETTY WET AROUND HERE. FOR
THAT REASON, WILL BE ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE ATTENDANT OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT EXTENDS DOWN
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. PLENTY OF GULF AIR RUNNING NORTH FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE 80H JET IN EXCESS OF 60 KT WITH THE GFS
SPORTING AN 85KT JET FROM SOUTHERN DELAWARE THROUGH SANDY HOOK NJ
AT 12Z MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT 40 TO 50 KT AND THIS WILL STEAL ADDED MOISTURE FROM
THE ATLANTIC SIDE. DURING OUR LAST RAIN EVENT, WE WERE ABLE TO
TAPE THE GULF STREAM MOISTURE AND DEW POINTS JUMPED INTO THE MID
50S NORTH TO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. THIS FUEL THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE
SURROUNDING THE LOW THAT BOTTOM MED OUT AT 29.28INCHES. IN THIS
CASE HOWEVER, THE ORIENTATION OF THE ECHOES WILL BE NARROW BANDED
AND RUNNING NORTH SOUTH WITH SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION. NEEDLESS
TO SAY, WITH THE WIND PROFILE AHEAD THERE MAY BE SOME POWER WINDS
DROP OUT OF THE SKY IN A HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CELL AND THIS WILL BE
IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

THE OMEGA PROFILE IS SHOWING THE LIFT FROM THE 80H 80-85 KT WINDS
AND A SECOND AREA JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS IS A PRETTY STRONG
FIELD AND IS GOING TO BECOME ONE LONG OMEGA FIELD WITHOUT ANY
INTERRUPTION OR BREAKS SUGGESTING THAT THIS IS A PRIME SET UP FOR
TRAINING ECHOES. IN THE PAST THE FIELD SOMETIMES BECOMES DISJOINTED
AS A LOW FORMS FARTHER SOUTH AND SHUTS OFF THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
UNSTABLE GULF OF MEXICO AIR. HERE WE SEE A CLEAR ASSOCIATION WITH
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE GULF STREAM INFLUENCE. K VALUES AROUND 33
OR 34. THE PW'S ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES. WITH THE SETUP WE CAN EASILY
SEE THREE INCHES. THE MAX MODEL PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING IS 2.72 INCHES AND THE NAM 3.21 AND ECMWF 2.74-4.1.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SWING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND
KICK THE SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE WITH A COUPLE OF WIND SHIFT LINES
PIVOTING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THERE WILL BE SOME
PRECIPITATION LEFT BEHIND AS THE COLD AIR IS MOVING ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA AND IT WILL CHANGE SOME OF THE LIQUID TO MIXED SNOW
AND RAIN BUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THE UPPER CYCLONIC
FLOW OPENS UP TO A BROAD FLOW AND WILL TAP MUCH COOLER AIR IN THE
UPPER PLAINS AND BRING IT TO THE COAST WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. AS I SAID, IT IS GOING TO BE CLOSE AS TO
WHETHER WE END JANUARY ON A ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE SCHEME.

&&

.LONG TERM/...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER TO
START WITH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT ENDS WITH A BRUSH FROM A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT STORM JUST TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY.

REMARKABLY GOOD...EVEN SCARILY GOOD...AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE
12Z GFS AND THE ECMWF IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE LONG TERM...
MEANING THAT THE MODELS ARE KEEPING THE STORM LATE IN THE WEEK ON
OUR SOUTHERN BORDER...OR TO POINTS JUST SOUTH...AS IT EXITS THE
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS BE DUE TO THE
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY DRIVING THE LOW MORE IN AN EAST
DIRECTION, AS OPPOSED TO UP THE COAST. BUT, IF THERE IS MORE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED, THIS MAY CURVE THE STORM
FURTHER NORTHEAST WITH TIME. AND, SINCE THE MODELS MAY OSCILLATE
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AS MODELS ARE WONT TO DO, IT
SEEMS PRUDENT TO MENTION A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR OUR
AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL MESH WITH HPC AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES AS WELL. FOR NOW, PROBABILITIES WILL JUST BE A
GENERALLY LOW 30 PERCENT. ITS LOGICAL TO EXTRAPOLATE THAT TIME AND
EVENTS MAY DICTATE GROWTH IN POPS SOUTH AND LESSENING OF POPS NORTH
IF THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS BEAR FRUIT.

AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S
SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW WAS INCLUDED FOR THE NORTHERN AND MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL ZONES...A MIX WAS USED FROM CENTRAL DELAWARE UP TO
EAST-CENTRAL NEW JERSEY..AND RAIN WAS USED FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THEN, AT NIGHT, WITH COLDER AIR RETURNING, THIS
WAS SHADED TO COLDER PRECIPITATION WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW, EXCEPT A
MIX FOR MARINE AREAS.

OTHERWISE...JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES EARLIER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO BLEND WITH
CLIMATOLOGY AND SURROUNDING OFFICES.

TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD START OUT AROUND OR A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL BUT QUICKLY DROP TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AND PRETTY
MUCH STAY THAT WAY FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE START WITH VERY NICE FLYING CONDITIONS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL
FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED STRATOCUMULUS
THAT IS MOVING ONTO THE FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
COASTLINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM BRINGS THIS MOISTURE UP
INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE FAR SOUTHERN DELAWARE
RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WIPING IT OUT BY EARLY
EVENING. WE WILL WATCH IT AND AMEND IF NECESSARY.

OTHERWISE, WE EXPECT FIRST HIGH, THEN MID CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE
TAF SITES TONIGHT, AND THEN BY 18Z SUNDAY WE WILL FORECAST MVFR
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY DUE TO CEILINGS. THE TWO NORTHWESTERN SITES MAY
BEGIN TO SEE LIGHT RAIN BY THEN. RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO PHL BETWEEN
18Z AND 24Z SUNDAY, AND THERE WE WILL BRING IN IFR CONDITIONS /BOTH
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES/ BY THE END OF THEIR TAF PERIOD.

WINDS START AS LIGHT FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE TAF PERIOD, THEN BEGIN TO PICK UP SOME OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
BY 18Z /IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE/, AND A BIT MORE BY 24Z /IN THE 10
TO 20 KT RANGE/.

THERE CERTAINLY IS GOING TO BE AN INCREASE IN WINDS WITH HEIGHT
DEVELOPING BY 18Z SUNDAY, BUT AT PRESENT THE GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING
A VECTOR DIFFERENCE OF 10 KTS PER 100 FT THROUGH A 200 FT LAYER
SOMEWHERE IN THE LOWEST 2000 FT /THE DEFINITION OF LLWS/, SO WE'RE
NOT GOING TO FORECAST LLWS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
THE ACTIVE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL THE
TAF SITES INTO MONDAY WITH LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN THAT MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR SOMETIME AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING.
THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY FORECAST AT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES AND SOME HINTS OF SLANTWISE CONVECTION AT THE SOUTHERN
SITES, SO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON A
MODERATE WEST WIND, ALTHOUGH A SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY MAY
BRING SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN STRATOCUMULUS AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SNOW
SHOWERS /ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST/. WEST WINDS ALSO SHOULD PICK UP SOME
IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WE START WITH SUB-ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS, BUT WITH
ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THESE SEAS ARE
MAINLY SWELLS DUE TO THE SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, BUT
FOR MOST PLACES THEY HAVE A LONG WAY TO SUBSIDE IF WE WERE TO CANCEL
THE PRESENT ADVISORY.

WE DO EXPECT SEAS TO SUBSIDE SOME THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AND MAY LIMIT THAT TREND.
FOR THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE ENOUGH TO
LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, AND WE MAY BE ABLE TO
END IT EARLIER.

WINDS THEN WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO THE ADVISORY RANGE BY DUSK ON
SUNDAY. AFTER THAT, THE MODELS ARE TAKING A SWATH OF 60 KT OR
GREATER WINDS AT H925 OVER THE WATERS SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MIDDAY MONDAY. EVEN WITH THE STABLE LAYER AT THE SURFACE,
THESE VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE CONCERNS ABOUT GALE FORCE
GUSTS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. WE THEREFORE ARE ISSUING A GALE
WATCH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WAVEWATCH SUGGESTS THAT SEAS MAY
BUILD TO AROUND 15 FT AT THEIR HIGHEST, AND THIS MAY NOT BE TOO FAR
OFF.

WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS
AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY, WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND DIMINISH BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE, BUT PERHAPS NOT BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS BEFORE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY AND WEST WINDS PICK UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN.

&&

.TIDES...
WE START NEAR NEAP TIDE FOR THIS EVENT, BUT WE ALSO START WITH
RATHER LARGE POSITIVE ANOMALIES THAT SHOULD DROP SOME IN THE NEAR
TERM BUT LIKELY NOT TO NEAR-ZERO VALUES. ONCE THE NORTHEAST WIND
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST, THE WIND DIRECTION FACTOR IN GENERATING
POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES DECREASES /BUT PROBABLY DOESN'T DROP TO
ZERO/ ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. WE HAVE RUN SOME NUMBERS THROUGH A
LOCAL ALGORITHM FOR A REPRESENTATIVE ATLANTIC COASTAL SITE, AND IT
DOES NOT GIVE DEPARTURES SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
/ALTHOUGH IT GIVES DEPARTURES WELL IN EXCESS OF SSE GUIDANCE/. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS, BUT OUR PRESENT FEELING IS THAT THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL SITES WON'T HAVE A COASTAL FLOODING PROBLEM EXCEPT
POSSIBLY DURING THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE IF HEAVY RAIN IS
FALLING.

WE HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONCERN REGARDING DELAWARE BAY, CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER. FOR THESE LOCATIONS, A SOUTHEAST WIND
IS MORE PROBLEMATIC. IT PRESENTLY SEEMS THAT THE MONDAY MORNING
/EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE/ HIGH TIDE WOULD
BE THE ONE OF MOST CONCERN IF WINDS HAVEN'T SHIFTED TO WEST IN TIME.
THE PREVIOUS ONE IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES, AND WE WOULD
NEED DEPARTURES NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 3 FT TO REACH MINOR FLOODING
LEVELS THEN. WE WILL PUT OUR CONCERNS IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE ISSUED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE
COASTAL NJ ZONES AND TWO SOUTHERN DE/MD ZONES. THINKING IS THE AXIS
OF HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH THIS REGION FOR MOST OF THE EVENT.
SPEAKING WITH MARFC(ANDREW) AFTER RUNNING 1.96 TO 2.37 PRECIPITATION
INTO MODEL SEVERAL OF OUR SMALLER STREAMS WILL REACH CAUTIONARY
STAGE AND SOME MAY REACH FLOOD STAGE ON MONDAY. AGREED TO REVISIT
THIS ON SUNDAY WITH THE CREST FORECAST FALLING WITHIN THE FORECAST
PERIOD AT THAT TIME. DURING OUR LAST FLOOD EVENT WE WERE USING THE
MARCHALL-PALMER Z-R AND OUR 3 HR AND STORM TOTALS WERE 3 INCHES AND
6 TO 8 INCHES. GROUND TRUTH WAS SOMEWHERE AROUND 3 INCHES. WE WILL
RUN WITH MP Z-R AGAIN BUT AT SOME POINT MAY SWITCH TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION(DC) IF WE START TO GET TSTMS.  THE FREEZING LEVEL THIS
TIME WILL BE AROUND 10,000 FT. FREEZING LEVEL ON THE 17TH WAS AROUND
9,500 SO WE'LL SEE WHAT SIMILARITIES THERE ARE IN THE RADAR/FFMP
TOTALS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ001-007>010-012-015>019.
DE...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001.
MD...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ008-012-015.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ450.

&&

SYNOPSIS...EBERWINE
NEAR TERM...EBERWINE
SHORT TERM...EBERWINE
LONG TERM.../
AVIATION...DELISI
MARINE...DELISI
HYDROLOGY...EBERWINE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
320 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2010

DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-015>019-021-
PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-241030-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-
WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CUMBERLAND-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
320 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE MAIN STEM RIVERS SUCH AS THE DELAWARE AND
SCHUYLKILL ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY PROBLEMS, SMALLER CREEKS
AND STREAMS AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE SOME
FLOODING. IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE IT MAY BECOME NECESSARY
TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OR PART OF THE AREA LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT FOR THE TIME PERIOD OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY THE HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ003-004-NJZ013-014-020-022>027-241030-
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-
OCEAN-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
320 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THE
MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY THE HEAVY RAIN.
IN ADDITION SOME STRONG SOUTH WINDS MIGHT ALSO OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ451>455-241030-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
320 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

ALSO, GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450-241030-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
320 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ALSO, GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-241030-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
320 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.