Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

048 
WGUS61 KPHI 140047
FFAPHI

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
847 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2010

NJZ012>014-140900-
/O.EXB.KPHI.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-100714T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK
847 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW JERSEY 
  AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN 
  CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...EASTERN MONMOUTH AND WESTERN MONMOUTH. IN 
  NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...MIDDLESEX.

* THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

* AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN FELL IN PARTS OF THIS INLAND CENTRAL NEW
  JERSEY REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS APPEARED TO
  HAVE RECEIVED 2 INCHES.

* HEAVY SHOWERS WERE ALREADY REDEVELOPING THIS EVENING FROM JUST
  NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA TO NEAR TRENTON AND NEW BRUNSWICK NEW JERSEY.

* ADDITIONALLY...A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
  WILL ARRIVE FROM BALTIMORE WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT AND THEN PIVOT
  OUT TO SEA OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY
  MORNING OR MIDDAY. 

* THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DELAYS WEDNESDAY
  MORNING BECAUSE OF PONDING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

* POCKETS OF NEW RAINFALL FROM 9 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 9 AM WEDNESDAY  MAY
  EXCEED 4 INCHES IN A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
  NEW 1 INCH AMOUNTS.

* ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY RISING WATER LEVELS ON 
 SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. FLOODING WILL OCCUR ON ROADWAYS AND 
 IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ015>019-PAZ067>071-140900-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-100714T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...TRENTON...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...
PHILADELPHIA
847 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NEW 
 JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
 AREAS...IN NORTHERN DELAWARE...NEW CASTLE. IN NORTHEAST 
 MARYLAND...CECIL. IN NEW JERSEY...CAMDEN...GLOUCESTER...
 MERCER...NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON AND SALEM. IN SOUTHEAST 
 PENNSYLVANIA...BUCKS...CHESTER...DELAWARE...MONTGOMERY AND 
 PHILADELPHIA.

* THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING


* AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN FELL IN PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY WITH FAR
  NORTHEAST DELAWARE AND THE PHILADELPHIA AREA HIT HARD THIS
  MORNING AND THEN A LATE AFTERNOON HEAVY DOUSING IN NORTH CENTRAL
  NEW JERSEY. SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVED 2 TO 3.5 INCHES TODAY. THIS
  COMBINED WITH SPOTTY HEAVY RAINS THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS IS
  SETTING THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY SERIOUS LOCALIZED FLOOD
  EPISODE EARLY WEDNESDAY.

* HEAVY SHOWERS WERE ALREADY REDEVELOPING THIS EVENING FROM JUST
  NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA TO NEAR TRENTON AND NEW BRUNSWICK NEW JERSEY.

* ADDITIONALLY...A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
  WILL ARRIVE FROM BALTIMORE WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT AND THEN PIVOT
  OUT TO SEA OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY
  MORNING OR MIDDAY. URBAN CENTERS WILL BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE
  TO FLOODING RAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM NEAR WILMINGTON TO
  NEAR PHILADELPHIA AND TRENTON. 

* THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE SUBSTANTIAL TRAVEL DELAYS
  WEDNESDAY MORNING BECAUSE OF PONDING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

* POCKETS OF NEW RAINFALL FROM 9 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 9 AM WEDNESDAY
  MAY EXCEED 4 INCHES IN A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS WITH FAIRLY
  WIDESPREAD NEW 1 INCH AMOUNTS.


* ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY RISING WATER LEVELS ON 
  SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. FLOODING WILL OCCUR ON ROADWAYS AND 
  IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$


DRAG

174 
WGUS61 KPHI 140829
FFAPHI

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
429 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ012>019-PAZ067>071-141400-
/O.CON.KPHI.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-100714T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-
MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-
MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...NEW BRUNSWICK...
FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...WEST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
429 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NEW 
  JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...IN NORTHERN DELAWARE...NEW CASTLE. IN NORTHEAST 
  MARYLAND...CECIL. IN NEW JERSEY...CAMDEN...EASTERN MONMOUTH...
  GLOUCESTER...MERCER...MIDDLESEX...NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON...
  SALEM AND WESTERN MONMOUTH. IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
  BUCKS...CHESTER...DELAWARE...MONTGOMERY AND PHILADELPHIA.

* UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING

* HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA IN
  PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. AS THE HEAVY RAIN LIFTS OUT OF THE
  REGION THIS MORNING....MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND
  THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING.

* THE RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAIN EARLIER THIS MORNING IS STARTING
  TO GET INTO THE RIVERS AND STREAMS...AND SHARP RISES ARE
  ANTICIPATED.IN ADDITION...URBAN AND STREET FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

HAYES

780 
WGUS61 KPHI 141415
FFAPHI

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1015 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ012-015>019-PAZ067>071-142000-
/O.EXP.KPHI.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-100714T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.FF.A.0002.100714T1415Z-100714T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...NEW BRUNSWICK...
TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...
MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...
DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
1015 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DELAWARE...
 NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
 INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN DELAWARE...NEW 
 CASTLE. IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CECIL. IN NEW JERSEY...
 CAMDEN...GLOUCESTER...MERCER...MIDDLESEX...NORTHWESTERN 
 BURLINGTON AND SALEM. IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...BUCKS...
 CHESTER...DELAWARE...MONTGOMERY AND PHILADELPHIA.

* UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON

* AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WERE FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
  WATCH AREA IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. AS
  THIS RAIN PIVOTS THROUGH THE REGION...ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF
  1/2 TO 1 INCH AND LOCALLY 2 INCHES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

* RUNOFF FROM THE PREVIOUS AND EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAIN MAY CAUSE
  FLASH FLOODING IN A FEW AREAS...AS WELL AS SHARP RISES ON AREA
  STREAMS AND CREEKS. IN ADDITION...URBAN AND STREET FLOODING IS
  POSSIBLE.

* PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

  YOU SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
  ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

NJZ013-014-141515-
/O.EXP.KPHI.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-100714T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK
1015 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL NEW JERSEY HAS
EXPIRED. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS TIME FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOOD THREATS.

$$

NJZ007>010-PAZ060>062-142000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FF.A.0002.100714T1415Z-100714T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
1015 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND EAST CENTRAL 
 PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NEW JERSEY...
 HUNTERDON...MORRIS...SOMERSET AND WARREN. IN EAST CENTRAL 
 PENNSYLVANIA...BERKS...LEHIGH AND NORTHAMPTON.

* UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON

* AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WERE FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
  WATCH AREA IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. AS
  THIS RAIN PIVOTS THROUGH THE REGION...ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF
  1/2 TO 1 INCH AND LOCALLY 2 INCHES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

* RUNOFF FROM THE PREVIOUS AND EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAIN MAY CAUSE
  FLASH FLOODING IN A FEW AREAS...AS WELL AS SHARP RISES ON AREA
  STREAMS AND CREEKS. IN ADDITION...URBAN AND STREET FLOODING IS
  POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
211 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT TONIGHT AS IT MOVES TO THE
COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. A
RETURN TO HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 1130 AM, A MESOSCALE LOW WAS DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
EASTERN MERCER COUNTY. IT SHOULD CONTINUE UP ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
TURNPIKE DURING THE BALANCE OF THE MORNING AND THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. A BOUNDARY EXTENDED SOUTHWARD IN ITS WAKE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DOWN INTO SOUTHERN DELAWARE.

THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY LATE THIS MORNING. WHILE THE RAIN WAS STILL HEAVY, THE
INTENSITY HAD DROPPED A BIT.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHERN DELAWARE. HOWEVER, SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IS OUR FORECAST AREA.

SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
GREATER THAN TWO INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN
0300 AND 0900 UTC WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS
DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY THIS EVENING (FROM LATE AFTERNOON
ACTION). BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 25 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...SO
THERE COULD BE SOME ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STORMS IN THE
EVENING.

AFTER THIS...ALL MODELS SHOW THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR
LINING UP WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY. THE PASSING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY ALLOW A SURFACE WAVE TO
FORM ON THE BOUNDARY. THIS COULD ACT TO FOCUS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
AND WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN.

IN ADDITION...MAY NEED TO WATCH THE ACTIVITY ON THE FRONT FOR LOW
LEVEL TURNING. WHILE THERE IS NOT MUCH CAPE ON THE SOUNDINGS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...IT IS MOSTLY IN THE LOW LEVELS. IN ADDITION...0-1 KM
HELICITY NUMBERS...LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND HIGH DEW POINTS NUMBERS
SUGGEST THAT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE
OF STRETCHING IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

WITH THE NO AIRMASS CHANGE IN SIGHT...AND DEW POINTS HAVING A HARD
TIME GETTING BELOW THE MID 70S...BASICALLY ACCEPTED A BLEND OF MOS
NUMBERS FOR LOWS.

ALL MODELS (EVEN THE PREVIOUSLY SLOWER NAM) ARE ALL TAKING THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WEST NORTHWEST AND BEGINS TO DRY. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY RUNNING
FROM SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THIS LINE APPEARS
TO DELINEATE JUST HOW FAR THE DRIER AIR WILL GET WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HENCE...EAST OF THIS LINE...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE SEA BREEZE MAY BE THE BOUNDARY
THE INSTABILITY NEEDS TO BE RELEASED...AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE SEA BREEZE. WITH
LITTLE EFFECT SHEAR...AND PERHAPS A SLOW MOTION TO THE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENT...HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE CONVECTIVE MODE. WITH LESS
COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF HEAVY
RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY AFTER THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
CLEARS THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NEAR 17 CELSIUS. THIS SUPPORTS THE HIGHER GFS MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGHS
IN ALL AREAS OUTSIDE OF SEA AND BAY BREEZES.

ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ON THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DIE OFF
WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS CAPPING CUTS OFF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. MID LEVEL RISING HEIGHTS
AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE
COAST. BASED ON FORECAST DEW POINTS...STILL NOT QUITE GETTING TO
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH CRITERIA FOR THURSDAY...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEADLINES FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEAT ADVISORY PRODUCTS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
SPOTTY HEAVY CONVECTION POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. HIGH
INDEX PROJECTED NEAR 100F IN PHL FRIDAY.

NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THIS EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST OR WELL BEYOND PER THE
00Z/12 NAEFS. THIS MONTH ALREADY AVERAGING 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
IN PHILADELPHIA FOR THE FIRST 11 DAYS.

WE ARE FCSTG A HEAT WAVE TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND LAST AT LEAST INTO
THIS WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE ON THE HEAT WAVE NOT BEING INTERRUPTED BY
ONE DAY BELOW 90 IS AVG.

THE FCST POPS WERE INCREASED ABOVE HPC AND GFS GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE EDGE OF THE MID LVL CAP. QUITE A
BIT OF INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT SATURDAY FOR HEAVY CONVECTION
ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS LIFT.

SUNDAY...MODEL SIGNALS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT SFC TD'S BUT STILL HOT.

NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY...MAY HAVE UNDERFORECAST POPS IN PULSES OF
WAA BUT FOR NOW REMAIN WITH HPC POPS IN A CONTG HOT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMP PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MESO-LOW ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA AT LATE MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WHICH STRETCHED FROM LOW
PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL
MID ATLANTIC COAST. MORE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPANION
COLD FRONT WAS TO OUR WEST...AND THIS IS SLATED TO AFFECT THE TAF
SITES FROM LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH JUST BEFORE OR AROUND SUNRISE.
SO...FOR MID AND LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...OUR AREA SHOULD
MOSTLY BE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE KMIV AND
KACY FOR A FEW HOURS INTO LATE AFTERNOON...AS THESE TAF SITES WILL
BE IN THE ASCENT AREA JUST TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MESO-LOW NOW MOVING WELL TO THE NORTH. THE CENTRAL TAF SITES
SHOULD BE JUST ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS ACTION...SO THINKING
OPTIMISTICALLY A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION WAS LEFT OUT FOR THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON.

SO...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION
UNTIL RENEWED CONVECTION MOVES IN LATER THIS EVENING. THEN...
MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS VARYING DOWN TO IFR IN HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS
AND FOG ARE FORECAST. THE NAM MOS WAS THE USUALLY MORE PESSIMISTIC
PARTNER TO THE GFS MOS WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD MORNING...CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING...BECOMING VFR BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNDER A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD...WITH
WINDS MAINLY FROM A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ATTACHED FRONTS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TODAY AND THEN PASS TO THE NE TONIGHT AND WED. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE
WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER AROUND TSTMS...OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KTS AND SEAS 3 TO 4
FT ON THE OCEAN AND AROUND 2 FT IN THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WED NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRI. THIS
WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND MORE OF A RELAXED WIND/SEA. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE WATERS SAT. SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FAIR AMOUNT OF POOR DRAINAGE AREA AND ROADWAY FLOODING OCCURRED
THIS MORNING, WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN
IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, LESS THAN A HALF HOUR IN MANY CASES.

FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE WISSAHICKON CREEK, THE FRANKFORD
CREEK AND THE PENNYPACK CREEK IN PHILADELPHIA. THE FLOODING ON THE
FRANKFORD CREEK REACHED THE MAJOR CATEGORY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE A BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHERN DELAWARE. THOSE AREAS HAVE RECEIVED LESS RAIN THAN
LOCATIONS TO THE WEST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT, WE WILL
NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ONCE AGAIN...JUST BARELY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING VALUES REACHED ACROSS
THE SHORE AND DEL BAY LAST EVENING. THE TREND IN THE DEPARTURES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS DOWNWARD AS WE CONTINUE PAST THE TIME OF THE
NEW MOON (LAST SUN). COULD BE CLOSE AGAIN THIS EVENING...SO THE DAY
CREW WILL EVALUATE AND ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES IF NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HAYES
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...HAYES
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION... / O'HARA
MARINE...O'HARA /
HYDROLOGY...IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...O'HARA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
316 AM EDT TUE JUL 13 2010

DEZ001-NJZ015-017>019-PAZ067>071-140730-
NEW CASTLE-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-
MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
316 AM EDT TUE JUL 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT ADVISORY OR WARNING MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ001-007>009-PAZ054-055-060>062-140730-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-
316 AM EDT TUE JUL 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-140730-
CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
316 AM EDT TUE JUL 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002-003-NJZ010-012>014-016-020>025-027-140730-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
316 AM EDT TUE JUL 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-140730-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
316 AM EDT TUE JUL 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450>455-DEZ004-NJZ026-140730-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
DELAWARE BEACHES-COASTAL OCEAN-
316 AM EDT TUE JUL 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1013 AM EDT TUE JUL 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     FLOOD            NEWPORT                 39.71N 75.61W
07/13/2010                   NEW CASTLE         DE   NEWSPAPER

            OLD AIRPORT ROAD FLOODED.

0900 AM     FLOOD            PHILADELPHIA            40.01N 75.13W
07/13/2010                   PHILADELPHIA       PA   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            FLOODING ALONG THE FRANKFORD CREEK IN NORTHEAST
            PHILADELPHIA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1033 AM EDT TUE JUL 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     FLOOD            NEWPORT                 39.71N 75.61W
07/13/2010                   NEW CASTLE         DE   NEWSPAPER

            OLD AIRPORT ROAD FLOODED.

0900 AM     FLOOD            PHILADELPHIA            40.01N 75.13W
07/13/2010                   PHILADELPHIA       PA   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            MAJOR FLOODING ALONG THE FRANKFORD CREEK IN NORTHEAST
            PHILADELPHIA.

0946 AM     FLOOD            PHILADELPHIA            40.01N 75.13W
07/13/2010                   PHILADELPHIA       PA   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            FLOODING ON WISSAHICKON CREEK.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1058 AM EDT TUE JUL 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     FLOOD            NEWPORT                 39.71N 75.61W
07/13/2010                   NEW CASTLE         DE   NEWSPAPER

            OLD AIRPORT ROAD FLOODED.

0900 AM     FLOOD            PHILADELPHIA            40.01N 75.13W
07/13/2010                   PHILADELPHIA       PA   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            MAJOR FLOODING ALONG THE FRANKFORD CREEK IN NORTHEAST
            PHILADELPHIA.

0946 AM     FLOOD            PHILADELPHIA            40.01N 75.13W
07/13/2010                   PHILADELPHIA       PA   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            FLOODING ON WISSAHICKON CREEK.

0957 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CAMDEN                  39.94N 75.11W
07/13/2010  M2.40 INCH       CAMDEN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2.40 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN CAMDEN IN 1 HOUR AND 20
            MINUTES.

0957 AM     FLOOD            CAMDEN                  39.94N 75.11W
07/13/2010                   CAMDEN             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ADMIRAL WILSON BLVD AND ROUTE 130 IN CAMDEN BOTH CLOSED
            DUE TO FLOODING.

1030 AM     FLOOD            PHILADELPHIA            40.01N 75.13W
07/13/2010                   PHILADELPHIA       PA   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            FLOODING ON PENNYPACK CREEK.

&&

MEOLA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
202 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2010

NJZ013-019-020-027-131900-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-
WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
202 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BURLINGTON...MONMOUTH AND OCEAN
COUNTIES...

AT 200 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 22 MILES SOUTH OF TRENTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 TO 25 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR COUNTRY LAKE ESTATES
AROUND 200 PM...BROWNS MILLS...NEW EGYPT AROUND 215 PM...WOODRUFF...
CASSVILLE AROUND 230 PM...SIX FLAGS THEME PARK AND JACKSONS MILLS
AROUND 245 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORM.

LAT...LON 4025 7447 4013 7412 3978 7458 3994 7477

RPW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
220 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2010

NJZ013-014-131855-
EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
220 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MONMOUTH COUNTY...

AT 218 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SANDY HOOK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR LEONARDO...
MIDDLETOWN AROUND 230 PM AND SANDY HOOK AROUND 245 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 4017 7411 4034 7430 4045 7419 4045 7416
      4046 7412 4044 7409 4041 7399 4044 7402
      4047 7401 4047 7400 4043 7396 4029 7397

RPW