Coastal Flood Statement 10, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
811 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY BUT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER TROF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WAS LIFTING NEWD AND
WAS ABOUT TO CLEAR OUR REGION THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCD SFC LOW WAS
LIFTING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM CAPE COD.

EXCEPT FOR SPOTTY AREAS OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE FROM EXTREME NRN
NJ TO THE FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COASTLINE, RAIN HAD ENDED OVER
THE FCST AREA AS OF EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO BREAK
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST, ALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS
AHEAD OF THE A TRAILING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS
INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA.

AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL AND
APPROACH DEWPT TEMPS OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE OFF TO A SLOW
START. DEWPT TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LOWER MUCH OVERNIGHT, AND
SOME AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF NRN NJ
WHERE RAIN FELL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER-LVL TROF IS MOVG EWD THROUGH THE GRTLKS ATTM. AN ASSOCD
COOL FRONT EXTENDS FROM LAKE ERIE SWWD THRU THE LOWER OH/TN
VALLEYS. THE FRONT HAS LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER OR TSTM ACTVTY WITH
IT. THIS COOL FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
ON THURSDAY BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE SMWHT BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS GENERALLY FOLLLOWED FOR MAX/MIN
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VERY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF
AUGUST AND INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE MID-ATLC
THROUGH THE PD.  NO PRECIP IS IN THE FCST ATTM, AND THERE WILL BE A
FEW DAYS WHERE THERE WILL HARDLY BE ANY CLOUDS.  THE ECMWF DOES TRY
TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN SOMEWHAT BY WEDNESDAY AS A CDFNT APPROACHES
THE MIDWESTERN STATES, BUT EVEN WITH ITS SOLN, NO PRECIP WOULD BE
EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL HIT THE 90S AGAIN AT MANY LOCATIONS THRU THE PD. WITH
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS NR 80 DEGREES AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SEPTEMBER, READINGS COULD BE 10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NRML IN THIS
WX PATN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING ACRS DE AND MD WORKING
SLOWLY INTO ERN PA AND NJ.  WHILE CONDS REMAIN VFR, THE SC HAS BEEN
SLOW TO BREAK.  HOWEVER, DURG THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THINGS WILL BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
MOST LOCATIONS. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
WE HAVE INDICATED LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK AT KRDG, KTTN
AND KMIV.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY. THE
WIND SHOULD BECOME NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS AROUND 1300Z TO 1400Z.
THE WIND MAY BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND IT WILL
LIKELY BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE STUBBORN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND IT WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA.

A DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST SHOULD ARRIVE ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION.

SWELLS FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM DANIELLE MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...AMC/DELISI
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2010

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>023-027-
PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-270300-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-270300-
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-270300-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.