Tornado Warning 12, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
238 PM EDT WED JUL 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE
DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT WAVE WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT PUSHING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S OVER EASTERN OH AND NORTHERN WV. EXPECT ISOLATED
STORMS TO POP UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTION JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE TONIGHT...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. EVEN WITH LESS WIND SHEAR FURTHER
SOUTH...CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT SHOULD MAINTAIN A FEW STRONG
STORMS OVERNIGHT. PLAN TO KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS
TONIGHT...THEN QUICKLY TAPERING TO CHANCE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT CLEARS THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH AND LOWER
70S SOUTH OVERNIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT
TERM WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS FRIDAY 75 TO AROUND 80.
SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED AND GROUND MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE PLAINS. A
COUPLE OF IMPULSES WILL RIDE ALONG IN NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES DURING THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT EAST MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
WEAK SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW TUESDAY. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY AND TREND BACK
TO SLIGHT CHANCE WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KZZV. A CB
GROUP IS MENTIONED IN THE TAF WITH A LACK OF COVERAGE IN ANY EARLY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH
BKN040-050 CUMULUS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 00Z...WITH
TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
STARTING AT KFKL AND REACHING THE PITTSBURGH TERMINALS AFTER 02Z. A
FEW OF THE STORMS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
AN ISOLATED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY. CONVECTION
WILL WEAKEN WITH SHRA FORECAST WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT KLBE/KMGW INTO
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

WITH ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CAN
BE EXPECTED NEAR DAWN ACROSS THE TERMINALS. TEMPO GROUPS ARE
FORECAST FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE TERMINALS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF PRE-DAWN RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING AT THE TAF SITES. A FEW PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
RESTRICTIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY WITH THE
RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
327 AM EDT WED JUL 28 2010

MDZ001-OHZ049-050-057>059-068-069-PAZ021-023-029>032-WVZ001>004-012-
021>023-041-290730-
GARRETT-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-
MONROE-ALLEGHENY-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-GREENE-FAYETTE-
HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
327 AM EDT WED JUL 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT AT THIS TIME...STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

OHZ039>041-048-PAZ007>009-013>016-020-022-290730-
TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-
LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ARMSTRONG-
327 AM EDT WED JUL 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME STORMS COULD REACH
SEVERE LEVELS. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
623 PM EDT WED JUL 28 2010

PAZ009-282300-
FOREST PA-
623 PM EDT WED JUL 28 2010

...THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...FOREST...

AT 620 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN PITTSBURGH
INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER MARIENVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  REDCLYFFE...          MARIENVILLE...

KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND MOVE TO A SAFE PLACE IF THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 4144 7895 4143 7898 4144 7899 4144 7906
      4142 7907 4141 7908 4135 7909 4135 7921
      4156 7922 4158 7895

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
625 PM EDT WED JUL 28 2010

OHZ039>041-048-049-282330-
CARROLL OH-COLUMBIANA OH-COSHOCTON OH-HARRISON OH-TUSCARAWAS OH-
625 PM EDT WED JUL 28 2010

...THUNDERSTORMS...

THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
COLUMBIANA...HARRISON...COSHOCTON...TUSCARAWAS AND CARROLL...

AT 618 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN PITTSBURGH
INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTH OF
BOLIVAR TO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WARSAW...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 9 MILES NORTH OF BOLIVAR TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF NELLIE...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH MAY BE EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF THIS LINE.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  WARSAW...             COOPERDALE...         BLISSFIELD...
  STRASBURG...          SUGARCREEK...         BOLIVAR...
  COSHOCTON...          BALTIC...             WEST LAFAYETTE...
  DOVER...              HOMEWORTH...          MINERAL CITY...

MOVE TO A SAFE PLACE IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH.  MOTORISTS SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR TREES FALLEN ON ROADS.

PLEASE REPORT STRONG WIND OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772.

LAT...LON 4045 8192 4045 8167 4064 8165 4067 8146
      4065 8124 4072 8123 4073 8109 4091 8108
      4090 8091 4093 8090 4093 8081 4090 8080
      4090 8063 4024 8148 4021 8218 4023 8219

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
658 PM EDT WED JUL 28 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JAMESTOWN               41.48N 80.44W
07/28/2010                   MERCER             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTERS REPORTED SOME TREES AND WIRES DOWN IN JAMESTOWN.

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GREENVILLE              41.41N 80.38W
07/28/2010                   MERCER             PA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            DISPATCHER REPORTED COUPLE OF TREES DOWN IN TOWN.

&&

15

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