Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
356 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT BROUGHT SEVERAL REPORTS OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDWEST LAST NIGHT HAS MOVED ACROSS OHIO
AND INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE LINE HAS BROUGHT SOME ISOLATED
REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER...PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL. MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AT THIS
TIME...AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER ANY ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE INITIAL LINE
OF STORMS. CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO LESSEN
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY DROP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW.
SPC HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IN THEIR DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK TO MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY VALUES
WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY...EXPECT THAT WIND SHEAR WILL STILL BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. EVEN WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...HIGHS WILL STILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE DROPPED SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE
STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH OF THE CWA THE FRONT WILL
HANG UP...BUT WITH THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND
VIRGINIA...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. WILL
ACTUALLY HAVE A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE YET
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA SATURDAY. WITH LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP
THROUGH OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS AT CHANCE
LEVELS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH MODEL TIMING. TEMPS WILL STILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE REGION WILL BE IN A ZONAL FLOW AT THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD. THERE HAS BEEN A LACK IN CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO
RUN IN THE MODELS...REDUCING CONFIDENCE.  HOWEVER...GFS
ENSEMBLE/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT THAT THE BROAD
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY MORE AS ITS AXIS SHIFTS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. THE FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THIS
SOLUTION WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY WITH THE AREA IN A COOLER...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE
ON TUESDAY.

IN THIS PATTERN...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH MONDAY AS A COOLER AIR MASS SETS IN
WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE. POPS BECOME SCHC ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL VALUES. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH LIKELY CLOUD COVERAGE
AND A COOLER AIR MASS SETTING IN...HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY PROGRESSING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
OHIO AS OF 18Z. TSRA TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE TERMINALS
TO TIME THE PASSAGE OF THE CONVECTION. MODELS HAVE HINTED AT ANOTHER
LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS INITIAL LINE SO CONTINUED THE
MENTION OF TSRA FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 02Z. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH AND STALL OVER THE REGION
CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE WSR 88D AT PITTSBURGH...KPBZ...IS OPERATIONAL BUT IN DEGRADED
MODE DUE TO LOW POWER OUTPUT. ADDITIONAL PARTS ARE ON ORDER AND
MORE MAINTENANCE WILL BE COMPLETED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ALTERNATE RADARS INCLUDE KRLX...KILN...KCLE...AND KCCX.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
147 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029>032-WVZ001>004-031200-
TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-
MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-
LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-
INDIANA-WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-GREENE-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-
MARSHALL-
147 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 245 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MDZ001-WVZ012-021>023-041-031200-
GARRETT-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
147 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND AND NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
632 PM EDT WED JUN 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     IRONDALE                40.57N 80.73W
06/02/2010                   JEFFERSON          OH   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE BLOWN DOWN ONTO HOUSE

&&

TGREEN

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