Winter Storm Warning 2, NWS Paducah, KY

Alexander County, IL, Gallatin County, IL, Hardin County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Massac County, IL, Pope County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Saline County, IL, Union County, IL, Williamson County, IL, Ballard County, KY, Caldwell County, KY, Calloway County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Christian County, KY, Crittenden County, KY, Daviess County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Graves County, KY, Henderson County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Livingston County, KY, Lyon County, KY, Marshall County, KY, McCracken County, KY, McLean County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Todd County, KY, Trigg County, KY, Union County, KY, Webster County, KY, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Perry County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Scott County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Wayne County, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
224 AM CST THU JAN 28 2010

.DISCUSSION...
WITH AN IMPENDING WINTER STORM...BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DURATION OF SNOW.

AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING A WINTER STORM IS BEGINNING TO TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST U.S.. WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE OVER THE HEARTLAND...AS THE STORM BEGINS TO SPREAD PRECIP
ACROSS OUR CWA...IT SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...SLEET MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF OUR CWA...THEN CHANE
OVER TO ALL SNOW.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM
A TAD AND HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STORM TOTAL QPF A SMIDGE...
ESPECIALLY THE NAM. THE SREF AND GFS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
CONSISTENT. LATEST RUNS SHOWING ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 00-06Z FRIDAY (THIS EVENING)...SO DECIDED
TO START THE WARNING/ADVISORY AT 06Z FRIDAY. WITH THE SLOWER
EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...EXTENDED THE WARNING/ADVISORY
UNTIL 06Z. BOTH OF THESE TIMES ARE SIX HOURS LATER THAN THE WINTER
STORM WATCH VALID TIMES.

FOR LIQUID QPF TO SNOW RATIO...TONIGHT USED A 10:1 RATIO AND FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT USED A 12:1 RATIO. FOR QPF AMOUNTS...WENT
WITH A COMBINATION OF HPC QPF AND GMOS. THIS TALLIES UP TO A 4-8
INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION TOTAL GENERALLY SOUTH OF A MARBLE HILL
MISSOURI TO CENTRAL CITY KENTUCKY...AND A 1-3 INCH TOTAL NORTH OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE AND SOUTH OF A PINCKNEYVILLE ILLINOIS TO
ROCKPORT INDIANA LINE. GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD TAKE PLACE ON
FRIDAY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ON EITHER SIDE.

LATEST MODELS STILL SHOWING GOOD 850-500MB FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING...STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE I290 SURFACE...AND
MIXING RATIOS IN THE MOISTURE BEARING LAYER OF 4-5 G/KG. COUPLE
THE DYNAMICS WITH LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS OF ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH OF
AN INCH NORTH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH SOUTH SHOULD PRODUCE A
DECENT BLANKET OF SNOWFALL FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA. HIGHEST
SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS OF OUR
CWA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

ALL APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE OVER BY 06Z
SATURDAY...SO ENDED THE WARNING/ADVISORY AT THAT TIME. MAY SEE A
FEW FLURRIES LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT NO FURTHER ACCUMULATION. MADE NO CHANGES
BEYOND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE THE RULE FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH 13Z
THIS MORNING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-
     CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-FULTON-GRAVES-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-
     LIVINGSTON-LYON-MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR DAVIESS-HENDERSON-MCLEAN-UNION KY-WEBSTER.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-
     MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR PERRY MO.

IL...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALEXANDER-HARDIN-JOHNSON-MASSAC-POPE-
     PULASKI-UNION IL.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR GALLATIN-JACKSON-SALINE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR POSEY-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-SPENCER.

&&

MY/JAP

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