Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
256 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

.UPDATE...
UPDATED PUBLIC DISCUSSION FOR SHORT MESOSCALE UPDATE. ALSO UPDATED
AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GIVEN SEVERE WIND GUSTS (REPORTED 70 MPH FROM KCGI ASOS) AND
REPORTS OF DAMAGE ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE ONGOING
STORMS...WENT AHEAD AND LOCALLY EXTENDED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND MOST OF WEST
KENTUCKY. WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH ARE LOOKING MORE AND MORE
LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. DAMAGE SO FAR HAS CONSISTED OF
POWER POLES AND TREES DOWN AS WELL AS SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...(SENT AT 106 PM CDT)
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN ON SATELLITE AND RADAR MOSAIC /
PROFILER OVERLAY...MOVING INTO NW MISSOURI WITH A SHARP INCREASE
IN CONVECTION NOTED FROM ECNTRL ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
SVR WATCH IS ONGOING THROUGH 9 PM AND INCLUDES OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. PROSPECT FOR SVR IS A TAD HIGHER TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER FLOW ALOFT AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ALLOWING FOR STEEPER
LAPSE RATES. WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT SOME HAIL IS
POSSIBLE TOO. PARENT UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY WHILE A WEAK SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. WILL TRANSLATE BEST POPS EAST WITH TIME
TONIGHT...THEN SUPRESS THEM TO OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY...WITH MOST OF THE AREA DRY AS THE FRONT MAKES EVEN
FARTHER SOUTHWARD PROGRESS.

THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN PROMINENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST STATES
LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION GOING THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN DRY AFTER THAT...THOUGH LITTLE
CHANGE IN AIRMASS MEANS ISOLD TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE EVEN THEN. TOO
FAR OUT TO TELL AT THIS TIME. AFTER A SUBTLE DOWN TICK IN TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS NEXT 48 HOURS...WILL RETURN TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
FRIDAY ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. STAYED VERY CLOSE
TO HPC GUIDANCE IN THE LONG TERM. IN THE SHORT TERM...USED A BLEND
OF GFS AND NAM MOS NUMBERS FOR MAXS AND MINS.

.AVIATION... SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND INCLUDED CB AT ALL TAF SITES. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP
AT KCGI GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY
00Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AREAS THAT RECEIVE
PRECIP MAY SEE SOME MVFR FOG AFTER 06Z...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE THAT
UNTIL WE SEE WHAT SITES HAVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
414 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-161000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
414 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE AREA IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A MODERATE RISK ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...ALL OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND A SMALL PART OF NORTHERN
KENTUCKY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS
OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MOVEMENT OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE NORTHEAST AROUND 40 MPH. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE LIKELY...ALONG WITH VERY FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TENNESSEE AND
ARKANSAS BORDERS WITH MISSOURI AND KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY. THEN A DAILY
CHANCE OF STORMS EXISTS THURSDAY ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BRIEF
PULSE SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE NON SEVERE.

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FROM FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND ON
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>