Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1242 PM CDT MON MAY 3 2010

.DISCUSSION...
NEW SWODY1 PAINTS SLGT RISK ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES...IE NORTH OF
OH RIVER...ALONG ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOOKING UPSTREAM VIS
IMAGERY DOES REVEAL DISTURBED CU DECK NE MO/NW IL...AND AS TEMPS
HEAT UP SURFACE BASED CAPES MODELLED INTO LOWER 1KS J/KG. RUC13
AND NAM BOTH FLIRT WITH NRN ZONES AFT 21Z WITH OVERNIGHT POPS
RANGING PERHAPS AS HIGH AS HIGH CHC NE TO LOW/NO CHANCE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. GIVEN H5 TEMPS AND LAPSE RATES SWODY1 TEXT
SUGGESTS HAIL AS MAIN THREAT IF IT OCCURS.

MODELS DO SEEM TO DAMPEN CONVECTION AS IT GETS GOING/APPROACHES
FA...SO IT WILL BE A WAIT-NE-SEE ON DEVELOPMENT. WILL GO AHEAD AND
PAINT THE TAPERING OF POPS FROM HI CHC TO LOW CHC NE TO SW AND
BLEND TO THE COLLAB PIC. AFTER TONIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
WARMING/DRYING. HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SKIRTS
ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND INTRODUCES A SLGT CHC MENTIONABLE
POP IN OUR NE FOR WED PM/EVENING. OTHER THAN THAT...WE LOOK GOOD
AND DRY THRU FRI...WHEN THE NEXT SUCH FRONT COMES THRU. IT LOOKS
TO COOL US OFF OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER ITS
WEEK END FROPA POPS.

BLENDED RUC TO GFS FOR LONGER TERM FORECAST PIC. BLENDED MAV/MET
MOS WITH HPC GUID AND COLLAB PIC FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
THE ONLY CONCERN BEING A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NRN IL/MO.
FRONT WILL NOT APPROACH NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA UNTIL AFTER 22Z
WITH TIMING OF FROPA AT TAF SITES GENERALLY BETWEEN 04Z AND 07Z.
ISOLATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY POP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BUT ACTIVITY WILL NOT HIT EVERY LOCATION AND WILL TEND TO
WEAKEN AS IT HEADS FURTHER SE AND AFTER SUNSET/LOSS OF INSTABILITY.
WORST CASE WOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW VFR CIGS AND LOW MVFR/IFR
VIS WITH A TSTM. WINDS COULD ALSO GUST OVER 20KTS WITH ANY TSTM.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

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