Tornado Warning 27, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

.AVIATION...
VERY COMPLEX SITUATION TODAY... EXPECT THE DRYLINE NOW OVER THE
PANHANDLES TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR/EAST OF THE DRYLINE AROUND 19Z-
21Z... THEN TRACK RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NE. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...
STRONG SW WINDS MAY CAUSE OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS OF VSBY IN BLDU.
THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR TAF SITES BY ABOUT
11/03Z... AND LIGHTER WINDS/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
ABOUT 11/10Z. AFTER THAT TIME... BR AND STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT ALL BUT OUR WESTERN SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010/

UPDATE...
DRYLINE BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH WINDS
GUSTING INTO THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE
UPGRADED HIGH WIND WATCH TO WARNING IN WOODS COUNTY AND CONVERTED
REST OF WATCH TO WIND ADVISORY. DRYLINE EXPECTED TO MIX EAST TO
ABOUT A MEDFORD TO NEAR WATONGA AND FREDERICK OKLAHOMA TO SEYMOUR
TEXAS LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE... WITH
STRONG WINDS/LARGE HAIL/TORNADOES A CONCERN. BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO
BECOME AN ISSUE BEHIND THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS/WX GRIDS. ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS/DEWPOINTS TO SHOW CURRENT
THOUGHTS ON DRYLINE POSITION. LOWERED HIGHS IN NE PORTION OF FA
WHERE TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID 50S AND CLOUDY LATE THIS MORNING.

MAXWELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010/

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. WARM FRONT
FROM SE TX INTO OK/TX PANHANDLES THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NWD TODAY.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST NORTH OF THE FRONT AND CIGS MAY LOWER
SOME MORE EARLY THIS MORNING. DRYLINE WILL PUNCH INTO WRN OK/N TX AS
SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH SRN KS. VERY STRONG SW TO W WINDS WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE DRYLINE AT WRN OK SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST
CIGS WILL RISE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE AND WILL INCLUDE IN ERN TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH S/W TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SURFACE
LOW TRACKING ACROSS SRN KANSAS AND DRYLINE PUNCHING INTO WESTERN
OK/N TX. EXCESSIVE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE DRYLINE WITH
DEEP MIXING INTO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT. WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE
FAR NW TO HIGH WIND WARNING. WILL LEAVE WATCH IN PLACE FARTHER EAST
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW RAPIDLY EASTWARD DRYLINE WILL
ADVANCE. MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH
STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE DRYLINE. SHEAR WILL
ALSO INCREASE AS STRONG MID LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING
S/W TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. AS PER SWODY1 EXPECT STORMS TO
INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES TOWARD
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FA. STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE
STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WITH SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. GREATEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE OVER NRN PARTS OF THE FA BUT LESS WIDESPREAD
BUT EQUALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD INTO N TX
ZONES. THE SEVERE STORMS SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY ENEWD DURING THE
EVENING WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EXITING THE FA BY LATE TONIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING IN SRN SECS EARLY TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY
AS IT BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK NORTHWARD. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS AS LOW
LEVEL JET INTERACTS WITH RETREATING WARM FRONT. MORE SEVERE WEATHER
AND THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
LOW OVER THE ROCKIES EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD AND FRONT BEGINS TO SURGE
BACK SOUTHWARD. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR THE AREA
AND DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LEAD TO
CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  55  84  70 /  30  40  20  20
HOBART OK         89  51  88  67 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  93  62  92  70 /  20  20  10  10
GAGE OK           87  44  81  61 /  20  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     74  51  79  68 /  50  60  10  40
DURANT OK         81  65  86  70 /  20  50  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ006-011-015>017-
     022-033>037.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-005-009-
     010-014-021.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087-088.

&&

25/25/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-102300-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1200 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY EAST OF A LINE
FROM MANCHESTER...TO ENID...TO YUKON...TO NORMAN...TO SEMINOLE.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK TO THE WEST OF THE HIGH RISK AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM CHEROKEE... SOUTH TO EL RENO... CHICKASHA...ARDMORE AND
ATOKA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK WEST OF THE MODERATE RISK AND EAST OF
A LINE FROM BUFFALO... TALOGA... MOUNTAIN VIEW... GRANDFIELD...
DUNDEE AND SEYMOUR TEXAS.

TIMING...
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FROM 3
PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES IN THE HIGH
RISK AREA...PARTICULARLY FROM THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA NORTH
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS IN THESE
AREAS DURING RUSH HOUR WILL HEIGHTEN POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

THESE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
ALL PERSONS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION IN THE EVENT A WARNING IS
ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION. STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE QUICKLY SO
ADVANCE PLANNING IS ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT.

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A VERY DYNAMIC AND RAPIDLY EVOLVING WEATHER SITUATION IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A DRYLINE WAS ADVANCING QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS PANHANDLES.  AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM WAS
MOVING OUT OF THE NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.
COOL STABLE AIR WAS QUICKLY BEING REPLACED WITH HUMID...MORE
UNSTABLE AIR...AS A WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO
WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MOVED NORTH.

BY LATE AFTERNOON...CONSIDERABLE CHANGES WILL HAVE OCCURRED. THE
DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED FROM NEAR CHEROKEE...TO WATONGA...TO
LAWTON...TO NEAR ARCHER CITY TEXAS. THE WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM AROUND PONCA CITY INTO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. EAST OF THE
DRYLINE AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY
UNSTABLE.  A CAPPING LAYER OF WARM AIR WILL HAVE ERODED SOMEWHAT
MAKING THE CHANCES FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT GREATER.

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL BE NEARBY RESULTING IN VERY STRONG WIND
SHEAR. THIS WIND SHEAR...COUPLED WITH THE HUMID UNSTABLE AIR... WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.  THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
AT 40 TO 50 MPH. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER IS HIGH...THE DURATION WILL BE BRIEF AS THE STORMS QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY MAY 11.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
             NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...90 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR..100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER THE DRYLINE HAS PASSED...VERY STRONG AND
POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVING MONDAY WILL LEAVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FROM MID TO LATE WEEK...
ADDITIONAL UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT...MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS AND AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
714 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             DEL CITY                35.45N 97.44W
05/10/2010  E3.75 INCH       OKLAHOMA           OK   PUBLIC

            3.5 TO 4 INCH DIAMETER HAIL. DELAYED REPORT.

&&

LAMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
720 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     TORNADO          1 S LEBANON             33.97N 96.91W
05/10/2010                   MARSHALL           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            NEW TORNADO...DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUSLY REPORTED
            TORNADO...JUST ON OKLAHOMA SIDE OF RED RIVER. ALSO
            REPORTED AS A LARGE TORNADO.

&&

LAMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
721 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     TORNADO          1 S LEBANON             33.97N 96.91W
05/10/2010                   MARSHALL           OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NEW TORNADO...DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUSLY REPORTED
            TORNADO...JUST ON OKLAHOMA SIDE OF RED RIVER. ALSO
            REPORTED AS A LARGE TORNADO. RELAYED BY NWS FORT WORTH.

&&

AMENDED FOR REPORT SOURCE.

LAMERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
726 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     TORNADO          4 SE NORMAN             35.18N 97.39W
05/10/2010                   CLEVELAND          OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TORNADO THAT ORIGINALLY TOUCHED DOWN NEAR HIGHWAY 9
            CROSSED NEAR HIGHWAY 9 AND 60TH. MEASURED WINDS OF 103
            MPH REPORTED BY AN ANEMOMETER AT THAT LOCATION. TIME IS
            EXACT. TORNADO DAMAGE ALSO REPORTED.

&&

LAMERS