Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
627 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2010

.AVIATION...
AROUND 6 PM...A DRYLINE WAS LOCATED ALONG A CHEROKEE TO GEARY
AND FREDERICK LINE. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE
DRYLINE THIS EVENING WHICH WILL PUSH BETTER SURFACE MOISTURE EAST
OF ALL TAF SITES BY 6-7Z. WILL ONLY MENTION THUNDER IN PNC TAF FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING AS SOME BACK BUILDING OF CONVECTION
IN KANSAS MAY OCCUR.  WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION
AS CONTINENTAL FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM KANSAS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. BETTER CHANCE FOR VFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORHTHERN HALF
OF OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2010/

DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH A FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE OVER THE AREA... THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT CHANCES WILL BE DELAYED TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WHEN COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. MEANWHILE...
THE DRY AIR AND STRONG WEST WINDS BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE
TO ELEVATE THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS ARE
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FA TOMORROW BUT
WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE.TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE FA BY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM
BACK UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO RETURN
OVER THE WEEKEND ON SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  44  66  37  65 /  30  10  10   0
HOBART OK         41  63  34  64 /  10   0  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  66  38  67 /  10   0  10   0
GAGE OK           38  60  27  65 /  10  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     43  62  35  64 /  30  10  10   0
DURANT OK         56  69  41  65 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>048-050>052.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>006-
     009>011-014>017-021>023-033>038.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087-
     088.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
252 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2010

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-071000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
252 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM WAKITA TO WATONGA TO
WAURIKA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 4 PM
UNTIL 3 AM.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES AND TENDER VEGETATION FROM LARGE HAIL OVER 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH.

TORNADOES.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS UNTIL 3 AM.

DISCUSSION...
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS KANSAS BRINGING A DRY LINE INTO
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR THE DRYLINE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THROUGH THE EVENING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL...DESTABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE MORE. INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FEW INITIALLY BUT WILL INCREASE IN
NUMBER WHEN A COLD FRONT ACCELERATES  INTO THE DRYLINE AND BOTH THEN
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY WHEN
THE FRONT MOVES AWAY.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY APR 7.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...70 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
A WIND ADVISORY IS EFFECTIVE FOR SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND 30 TO 35
MPH. A RED FLAG WARNING IS EFFECTIVE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN
THIRD OF OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

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