Severe Thunderstorm Warning 321, NWS Norman, OK

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-031000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1150 AM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOCATION...
ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 2 PM
THROUGH 2 AM.

IMPACT...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.

HAIL RANGING IN SIZE UP TO 1.25 INCHES MAY CAUSE MINOR DAMAGE TO
SENSITIVE VEGETATION AND OTHER FRAGILE OBJECTS...ESPECIALLY AS SOME
HAIL MAY BE DRIVEN BY STRONG WINDS.

LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED...AND MAY YIELD FLOODING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN NORTHERN
AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY
EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG HEATING OF A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE LIFTING THAT IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR A LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM AND MOVE SOUTH AND EAST.
WIND SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT MAY INCREASE JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS...COMBINED
WITH STRONG INSTABILITY...MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES AT TIMES...SUCH AS BOW ECHOES...AND PERHAPS SOME SHORT
LIVED SUPERCELLS. THESE STRUCTURES WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE WEATHER...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING WIND DAMAGE...BUT ALSO
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG THE INITIAL LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORMS MAY PERSIST
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE FRONT PASSES A GIVEN LOCATION.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY SEP 3.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STORMS MAY TRAIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FRONT FOR A LONG ENOUGH
TIME...ONE OR TWO HOURS...TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN TOTALS...AND
SOME THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...KEEPING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE WILL THEN RETURN...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT
5 AM FRIDAY. UNSCHEDULED UPDATES MAY ALSO BE ISSUED.

BURKE

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