Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHWRS/TSTMS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING
HOURS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST. ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXIST THAT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AS NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING EXIST... EXPECT THESE TO WEAKEN
QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET. AS LOW LEVELS STABILIZE MIDDLE PART OF THE
NIGHT MAY BE QUIET WITH ELEVATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
INTO FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON TUE... MUCH LIKE THIS MORNING. SOME
THUNDER POSSIBLE... BUT MAINLY HIGH-BASED SHOWERS.

ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIMIT FORCING FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA... PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW PLENTY OF AFTN
INSTABILITY. THIS WILL AT LEAST PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTN AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION...
MAINLY WEST AND NORTH.

SOME LINGERING POPS CONT INTO LATTER PART OF WEEK... BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND VERY WARM. AT LEAST UNTIL LATTER PART
OF WEEKEND... WHEN STRONGER WAVE MOVES THROUGH BASE OF WESTERN
TROUGH. THIS WAVE MAY SUPPRESS RIDGE ALLOWING BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD ALSO
ALLOW SFC FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA... PROVING NEXT BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  89  65  90 /  20  20  20  20
HOBART OK         67  88  65  90 /  30  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  91  67  93 /  20  20  10  10
GAGE OK           63  84  61  85 /  30  40  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     68  88  65  88 /  30  30  20  20
DURANT OK         69  89  67  90 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

32/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-251000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1150 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM CHEROKEE... TO
WEATHERFORD... TO FREDERICK... TO SEYMOUR TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 2 PM TO
10 PM.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
WEAK LIFT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER STORMS SYSTEM HAS ALSO WEAKENED THE
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION THAT SUPPRESSED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE REGION THIS PAST WEEKEND. DUE TO THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL LIFT... INITIAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT COULD BE SCATTERED ANYWHERE ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA OR
NORTH TEXAS.

WHILE PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL YIELD MODERATE TO HIGH
INSTABILITIES SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT... THE
DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. THIS ENVIRONMENT
FAVORS A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY BRIEFLY PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS OR HALF DOLLARS ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS BEFORE
THE STORM WEAKENS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY MAY 25.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...25 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
SURFACE WINDS WILL AGAIN GUST 35 TO 40 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS
TUESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND A WEAKENED CAP MAY ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A
RIDGE ALOFT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WEAK VERTICAL WIND FIELDS ALOFT...
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
TUESDAY.

CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
703 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SW GAGE               36.31N 99.77W
05/24/2010  M69 MPH          ELLIS              OK   ASOS

&&

TY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
725 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

TXZ083-084-250100-
HARDEMAN TX-FOARD TX-
725 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR FOARD AND HARDEMAN COUNTIES.

AT 726 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF GOODLETT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY. BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF A WARNING
IS ISSUED OR STORMS THREATEN YOU.

WR

LAT...LON 3424 10004 3424 10001 3439 10001 3449 9992
      3430 9954 3410 10003 3413 10006 3423 10006

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
755 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     HAIL             6 NE MOOREWOOD          35.79N 99.27W
05/24/2010  E1.00 INCH       CUSTER             OK   PUBLIC

&&

TY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
800 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SSW FREEDOM           36.73N 99.13W
05/24/2010  M60 MPH          WOODWARD           OK   MESONET

&&

TY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
821 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND GST     16 NNE FREEDOM          36.98N 99.00W
05/24/2010  M59 MPH          WOODS              OK   MESONET

&&

TY

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