High Wind Warning 1, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
415 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH S/W TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SURFACE
LOW TRACKING ACROSS SRN KANSAS AND DRYLINE PUNCHING INTO WESTERN
OK/N TX. EXCESSIVE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE DRYLINE WITH
DEEP MIXING INTO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT. WILL GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE
FAR NW TO HIGH WIND WARNING. WILL LEAVE WATCH IN PLACE FARTHER EAST
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW RAPIDLY EASTWARD DRYLINE WILL
ADVANCE. MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH
STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE DRYLINE. SHEAR WILL
ALSO INCREASE AS STRONG MID LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING
S/W TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. AS PER SWODY1 EXPECT STORMS TO
INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES TOWARD
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FA. STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE
STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WITH SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. GREATEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE OVER NRN PARTS OF THE FA BUT LESS WIDESPREAD
BUT EQUALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD INTO N TX
ZONES. THE SEVERE STORMS SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY ENEWD DURING THE
EVENING WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EXITING THE FA BY LATE TONIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING IN SRN SECS EARLY TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY
AS IT BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK NORTHWARD. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS AS LOW
LEVEL JET INTERACTS WITH RETREATING WARM FRONT. MORE SEVERE WEATHER
AND THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
LOW OVER THE ROCKIES EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD AND FRONT BEGINS TO SURGE
BACK SOUTHWARD. BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR THE AREA
AND DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LEAD TO
CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  55  84  70 /  30  20  20  20
HOBART OK         89  51  88  67 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  93  62  92  70 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           87  44  81  61 /  20  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     81  51  79  68 /  40  40  10  40
DURANT OK         82  65  86  70 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR OKZ005-006-011-015>017-022.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR OKZ004-009-010-014-021.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ033>037.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR TXZ083>085-087-088.

&&

30/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
837 PM CDT SUN MAY 9 2010

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-101000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
837 PM CDT SUN MAY 9 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
AREA NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE MAY OCCUR NEAR
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE TONIGHT...AS A STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAM.
INSTABILITY ROOTED ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WIND SHEAR...WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM OR TWO...WITH THE
MAIN CONCERN BEING HAIL BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON MONDAY...OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY MAY 10.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
             NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...20 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A SMALL...BUT WELL DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY...PRODUCING A DEEP SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL TRACK ACROSS KANSAS. THE LOW WILL DRAG A DRYLINE INTO OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...MOST LIKELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. BY THAT
TIME...RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH A STRONG CAP WILL BE IN PLACE INITIALLY...
RISING MOTION ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
EVENING. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS...AND TORNADOES.
CURRENTLY...THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS IS FORECAST ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...BUT ISOLATED CELLS...EQUALLY SEVERE...COULD
FORM FARTHER SOUTH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY MOVE AT
SPEEDS GREATER THAN 45 MPH...LEAVING LITTLE TIME FOR PEOPLE TO REACT
TO WARNINGS. YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO THINK AHEAD TO WHERE YOU WILL BE
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOW YOU WILL RECEIVE WEATHER
WARNINGS...AND WHERE YOU WILL SHELTER IF A STORM APPROACHES YOUR
LOCATION.

THE WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVING MONDAY WILL LEAVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FROM MID TO LATE WEEK...
ADDITIONAL UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT...MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS AND AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AFTER THE DRYLINE HAS PASSED...VERY STRONG AND
POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN ONE THIRD OF OKLAHOMA.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 AM
MONDAY.