Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
241 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ALL RESOURCES AGAIN ARE BROUGHT TO BEAR ON THE SHORT-TERM. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SAGGING S ACROSS S OK AND N TX WITH UNSEASONABLY-STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. WE THINK THE CURRENT BAND OF
ACTIVE CONVECTION NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY OVER TX AND SW
OK WILL PROPAGATE TO THE E OR ENE AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS
SLOWLY S... THUS STAYING MOSTLY S OF THE OKC AREA WHERE FLOODING
CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AFTER WIDESPREAD 5-11 INCH RAINFALL.
THUS THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING GOING INTO THIS EVENING THUS
APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS NCENTRAL TX AND S OK...
WHERE THE WATCH ALREADY HAS BEEN EXPANDED. WE MAY TRIM SOME OF THE
N PARTS OF THE CURRENT WATCH BEFORE 21Z DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE
TRENDS OVER NEXT HOUR OR SO.

PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY AS UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES TO THE GREAT LAKES... FOLLOWED BY MID-LATITUDE RIDGING OVER
THE PLAINS. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THEN BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL LATE
IN THE WEEK... DEFLECTING NEXT WESTERN TROUGH NE INTO THE N PLAINS
THU-FRI. THUS A TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL EARLY-SUMMER PATTERN
LATE IN THE WEEK - WARMER WITH LIMITED PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  87  72  93 / 100  30  30  20
HOBART OK         66  90  70  94 /  80  30  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  94  74  97 / 100  30  30  10
GAGE OK           63  86  68  93 /  40  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     64  85  70  90 /  80  20  20  30
DURANT OK         74  93  74  93 /  70  20  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ008-012-013-
     016>042-044>046.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

06/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-151000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1200 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ALSO WILL BE AN
ONGOING CONCERN.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ERICK TO
CLINTON TO STILLWATER.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SHOULD PLAN FOR CONTINUING FLOODING OPERATIONS AT
LEAST THROUGH EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON. SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
FROM THE OKLAHOMA CITY AREA NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA... NORTHEAST OF A NEARLY-STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDED FROM JUST NORTH OF ALTUS AND LAWTON... TO JUST SOUTH OF
CHICKASHA... TO JUST NORTH OF ADA AT MIDDAY. THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THESE STORMS... BUT THE CONTINUED
LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAIN... ON TOP OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN WHICH
ALREADY HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING... WILL MAINTAIN A
RISK OF SERIOUS AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL LESSEN DURING THE AFTERNOON... BUT
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR PREVAILS
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY... AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND TOWARD WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. INSTABILITY AND
DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER STORMS... POSSIBLY INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS... WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL LARGER THAN
GOLFBALLS... WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH... AND POSSIBLY A FEW
TORNADOES. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE GREATEST OVER WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
MID EVENING. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE
COMPLEXES LATER THIS EVENING AND WILL SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL INCREASE
AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY JUN 15.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
THE FLASH FLOOD DANGER CANNOT BE OVERSTATED IN THE OKLAHOMA CITY
AREA. MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING... AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT
LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. ALL UNNECESSARY TRAVEL IS
DISCOURAGED INTO OR THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA CITY AREA AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... WITH
THE RISK OF FLOODING RAINS CONTINUING. STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN OR
DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS... BUT SCATTERED STORMS MAY
REFORM DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY... WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 AM
TUESDAY.

24

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
137 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

OKZ024-025-027>029-141915-
CANADIAN OK-OKLAHOMA OK-CLEVELAND OK-GRADY OK-MCCLAIN OK-
137 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CANADIAN...CLEVELAND...
GRADY...MCCLAIN AND OKLAHOMA COUNTIES.

ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS MOVED EAST OF THE OKLAHOMA
CITY METRO AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
FORMING ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.  THE STORMS ARE MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST AROUND 25 MPH AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT MCCLAIN AND
CLEVELAND COUNTY BETWEEN 230 AND 3 PM. THE MORNING RAIN HAS STABLIZED
THE ATMOPSHERE SOME...SO THE APPROACHING STORMS MAY DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AS THEY APPROACH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.  IT APPEARS
THAT SOUTHERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA CITY HAVE A GREATER RISK OF
ADDTIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THAN NORTHERN PORTIONS.

LAT...LON 3490 9777 3528 9805 3571 9766 3572 9720
      3514 9714

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
157 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

TXZ083-084-141930-
HARDEMAN TX-FOARD TX-
157 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR FOARD AND HARDEMAN COUNTIES.

AT 156 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES SOUTH OF
GOODLETT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
LOW LYING AREAS.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 3411 10006 3420 10006 3424 10002 3424 10001
      3427 10000 3442 9986 3427 9966 3402 9996
      3410 10007

TAYLOR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
233 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

TXZ084-141945-
FOARD TX-
233 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR FOARD COUNTY.

AT 231 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST
OF HACKBERRY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. AS THIS STORM MOVES INTO
FOARD COUNTY...STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR MORE MAY OCCUR. THIS
STORM IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR INTENSIFICATION.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY. BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF A WARNING
IS ISSUED OR STORMS THREATEN YOU.

LAT...LON 3411 10007 3419 9992 3414 9986 3402 9978
      3390 10007

TAYLOR