Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
653 PM CDT WED SEP 8 2010

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT... MAINLY THE CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA TAF SITES WITH SHOWERS MORE SCATTERED FARTHER WEST.
SURFACE WINDS AT A FEW OF THE TAF SITES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON THE SPECIFIC TRACK OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. IFR OR LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY AT SOME SITES THURSDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY BEFORE SUNRISE... BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE
REMNANT CIRCULATION MOVES AWAY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER IN AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT WED SEP 8 2010/

DISCUSSION...
REMNANT CIRCULATION CURRENTLY NEAR SEYMOUR...TEXAS WITH HEAVIEST
BAND OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF EAST...TEXAS INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
HAVE FALLEN.  POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT NORTH AND EAST OF LOW CENTER.  TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE THE HIGHEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A FEW COUNTIES ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BY THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE AND REMNANTS OF HERMINE MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF FA.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US WILL SHIFT EAST THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO OKLAHOMA... LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SCATTERED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNING MOST AREAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE
WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
BETTER THERMAL GRADIENT NORTH OF FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  72  88  73  90 /  90  20  10  10
HOBART OK         70  89  72  94 /  70  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  91  75  91 /  80  10  10  10
GAGE OK           65  89  67  94 /  40  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  84  73  91 /  90  40  10  20
DURANT OK         73  85  75  92 /  80  20  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OKZ007-008-
     011>013-015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR TXZ086-089-090.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT WED SEP 8 2010

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-091000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1155 AM CDT WED SEP 8 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER ARE TOO LOW FOR THE
MENTIONING OF A RISK AREA.

DISCUSSION...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE OVER WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT WIND SHEAR...
ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS INCREASED SHEAR MAY ALLOW ISOLATED STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR
SHORT-LIVED...WEAK TORNADOES...PRIMARILY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
HOWEVER...THE GREATEST CONCERNS TO SAFETY WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY SEP 9.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
               NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF A STORM REACHING SEVERE LEVELS...20  PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GREATEST RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING RAINS IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35. TRAINING OF VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AND SURROUNDING AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. PERSONS LIVING IN OR
WITH INTERESTS IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD EXERCISE THEIR
FLOOD SAFETY PLAN TO MINIMIZE IMPACTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
BE EXITING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA EARLY THURSDAY.

AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND
LINGERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ISOLATED OR SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE EXITING OKLAHOMA EARLY ON
THURSDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING FLOODING WILL EXIST.
MAIN-STEM RIVER FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
THURSDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
611 PM CDT WED SEP 8 2010

OKZ041-046-050-090000-
LOVE OK-MURRAY OK-CARTER OK-
611 PM CDT WED SEP 8 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CARTER...LOVE AND MURRAY
COUNTIES.

AT 610 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
HEALDTON TO THE RED RIVER NEAR RUBOTTOM...AND DOWN TO THE WEST OF
GAINESVILLE TEXAS. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS LINE OF
STORMS WILL APPROACH TURNER FALLS...ARDMORE...AND MARIETTA THROUGH
7 PM CDT.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

LAT...LON 3380 9722 3386 9717 3390 9720 3389 9723
      3385 9726 3388 9730 3382 9738 3383 9746
      3390 9747 3391 9750 3394 9751 3424 9755
      3458 9701 3388 9700 3384 9701 3380 9709
      3374 9708 3372 9715

BURKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
649 PM CDT WED SEP 8 2010

OKZ040-041-046-050-090030-
LOVE OK-MURRAY OK-GARVIN OK-CARTER OK-
649 PM CDT WED SEP 8 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CARTER...GARVIN...LOVE AND
MURRAY COUNTIES.

AT 647 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 5
MILES SOUTHWEST OF LONE GROVE...TO NEAR GAINESVILLE TEXAS. MOVEMENT
WAS NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL OVERTAKE INTERSTATE 35
FROM TURNER FALLS TO ARDMORE AND MARIETTA...THROUGH 730 PM.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

LAT...LON 3376 9720 3383 9721 3389 9718 3389 9723
      3385 9726 3387 9729 3413 9747 3455 9725
      3445 9688 3434 9687 3433 9693 3419 9693
      3418 9697 3401 9697 3401 9693 3396 9692
      3393 9698 3386 9699 3380 9709 3372 9710

BURKE

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