Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
556 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

.AVIATION...
0Z TAFS... SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...
CHANCES TOO LOW AT SOME LOCATIONS FOR MENTION IN TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE FA. A SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WAVE ALONG WITH HEATING...AND POSSIBLY FOCI OF OUTFLOW AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. A FEW STORMS
MAY OCCUR IN SE PORTIONS OF FA TUES... BUT MOST OF THE FA WILL BE
DRY STARTING TUES.

AFTER THE STORMS... FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...
AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FA. THE HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL COMBINE WITH THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS TO LEAD TO TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT INDICES. HOWEVER... THE FORECAST CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS BUT WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE... MODELS
SHOW A FRONT APPROACHING THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA STATE LINE WED/THU AS
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  75  93  76 /  60  30  10   0
HOBART OK         89  73  95  74 /  50  20   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  92  76  95  76 /  60  30   0  10
GAGE OK           95  69  98  72 /  40  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     92  74  94  78 /  50  40   0   0
DURANT OK         95  77  93  75 /  30  40  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

09/06/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
610 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-131200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
610 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK COVERS ALL OF THE NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 6 PM
THROUGH 11 PM.

IMPACTS...
SOME DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES AND TENDER VEGETATION FROM LARGE HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN-THIRD
OF OKLAHOMA.  AFTER SUNSET...STORMS MAY FORM A COMPLEX CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. SINKING MOTION BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MAY EFFECTIVELY END THE CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
BY LATE EVENING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY JUL 13.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
ON TUESDAY AND OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THURSDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES APPROACHING OR EVEN EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES
WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
TUESDAY.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
504 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

OKZ010-015-122245-
DEWEY OK-WOODWARD OK-
504 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR DEWEY AND WOODWARD COUNTIES.

AT 503 PM CDT...THUNDERSTORMS WERE SCATTERED ALONG A LINE FROM 3
MILES SOUTHWEST OF VICI TO 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMARGO...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT TALOGA AND MUTUAL...AND
WILL EVENTUALLY REACH SEILING AND HIGHWAY 270.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LAT...LON 3616 9938 3623 9933 3634 9899 3630 9896
      3617 9895 3595 9872 3582 9904 3581 9928
      3582 9937 3590 9939

BURKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
529 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

TXZ088-089-122315-
ARCHER TX-BAYLOR TX-
529 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ARCHER AND BAYLOR COUNTIES.

AT 529 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF WESTOVER...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT
WESTOVER AND MEGARGEL.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 3340 9873 3339 9921 3346 9926 3363 9867
      3340 9858 3339 9864

BURKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
556 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

TXZ089-122330-
ARCHER TX-
556 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ARCHER COUNTY.

AT 556 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF
MEGARGEL...AND ALSO AT ARCHER CITY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW VISIBILITY...AND
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

LAT...LON 3340 9895 3355 9895 3380 9842 3339 9841

BURKE