Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Norman, OK

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-081000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1150 AM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYER OF VERY MOIST AIR WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS... RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER... DAYTIME HEATING COULD RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITIES TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
BRIEF STRONG WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY JUL 8.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...10 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
THE PERSISTENT...GREAT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...AND
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS... WILL AGAIN SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH AND NORTHWEST TODAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN TO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. FINALLY...
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR WEAK BOUNDARIES GENERATED FROM
EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SEE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
WHILE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN MINIMAL... THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE FLOODING THREAT MAY BECOME PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...AS A COLD FRONT CONVERGES WITH EVEN DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE GULF COAST.

ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
DECREASE IN ANY SUBSTANTIAL WAY. THUS...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF
FLOODING WHEREVER STORMS CAN DEVELOP...EVEN GOING INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 AM
THURSDAY MORNING.

CJS/30