Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
326 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

.DISCUSSION...
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE LINE HAS LEAD TO LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST PART OF AREA WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE POPS INTO THE EVENING
AND KEEP SOME LOW POPS MOST LOCALES OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE PLUME CONT
TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA.

AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW... MOISTURE PLUME IS STILL PRESENT AND
BEGINS TO GET AUGMENTED BY MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWEST FROM SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS LA INTO EAST TX THIS AFTN. SO WILL BEGIN TO SEE
INCREASE AGAIN IN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN... AND HEAVY RAIN AT THAT AS
STEERING FLOW REMAINS WEAK AND PRECIP WATER AGAIN APPROACHES 2.5IN.

HEAVY RAIN WILL CONT TO BE MAIN THREAT/IMPACT FOR THU INTO FRI AS
THIS MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS COMBINES WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING SFC
FRONT TO CREATE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER... MODELS DO
DIFFER IN LOCATION OF WHERE THIS HEAVIER PRECIP WILL OCCUR. NAM
BRINGS GULF COAST SYSTEM FURTHER NORTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL INTO
WESTERN OK LATE THU INTO FRI AS IT SLOWS SE PROGRESSION OF SFC FRONT
DOWN. WHERE THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SFC FRONT...
PUSHING IT TO NEAR THE RED RIVER BY LATE THU INTO FRI. NAM MAKES A
LITTLE MORE SENSE AS SYSTEM TO OUR SE APPEARS TO BE STRONGER ON
SATELLITE THAN WHAT THE GFS GIVES IT CREDIT. ALSO... TAIL END OF SFC
FRONT SHOULD STRUGGLE AGAINST NORTHWEST PROGRESSION OF IT AS MAIN
PUSH WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH MAIN
WESTERLIES. THIS WOULD TEND TO PUT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
SECTIONS UNDER THE GUN FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN.

ON THE OTHER HAND... THE GFS WOULD INDICATE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44 WILL HAVE THE HIGHER CHANCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS ALSO IS IN AGREEMENT WITH HPC.
WILL TREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. MAIN POINT IS THAT
WITH EITHER MODEL THERE APPEARS TO BE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AGAIN OCCURRING SOMEWHERE IN THE STATE INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS WEEK.

MAY SEE SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE
YET ANOTHER FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  88  72  88 /  40  50  40  60
HOBART OK         71  90  70  88 /  20  30  30  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  92  73  89 /  20  40  30  50
GAGE OK           67  87  65  83 /  20  20  40  60
PONCA CITY OK     72  85  70  86 /  40  50  50  60
DURANT OK         73  88  74  87 /  50  70  40  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

32/30

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

OKZ041-042-047-051-052-061815-
BRYAN OK-MURRAY OK-JOHNSTON OK-MARSHALL OK-PONTOTOC OK-
1255 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BRYAN...JOHNSTON...
MARSHALL...MURRAY AND PONTOTOC COUNTIES.

AT 1252 PM CDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR ADA...
SOUTH TO TISHOMINGO... MADILL... DURANT AND LAKE TEXOMA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS 45 TO 50 MPH...
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...

LAT...LON 3374 9629 3386 9662 3389 9660 3391 9667
      3388 9668 3396 9693 3401 9693 3401 9697
      3418 9697 3419 9693 3440 9696 3485 9685
      3491 9678 3486 9671 3488 9668 3493 9669
      3488 9656 3461 9650 3444 9652 3442 9646

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