Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Norman, OK

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
500 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2010

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-051700-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
500 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING OVER NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
ALVA TO VICI TO CHEYENNE.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER COLORADO THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR
ALOFT... TO THE SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH... WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE
SYSTEM INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... AND WILL
DISPLACE THE PERSISTENT PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE EASTWARD AND
AWAY FROM NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. WITHIN THE AREA OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT... INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE DUE TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE LOCATED CLOSE
TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LIFTING
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
NEAR THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.
GREATER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY EXIST THAN HAS BEEN PRESENT IN
RECENT DAYS... BUT THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL
DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON
OVER NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. IF THE CLOUDS BREAK AND THE LOW LEVELS
BECOME MORE UNSTABLE... THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SURFACE BASED.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD
TO STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR... WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A FEW
ORGANIZED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM
WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

ELSEWHERE... INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK BUT DEEP ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND AREAS OF RAIN... WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY JUL 6.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...20 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.  PLEASE REFER TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER COLORADO THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY... DISPLACING THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
FARTHER EAST AND AT LEAST REDUCING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF AT LEAST
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO MIDWEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
MAY INCREASE AGAIN BY AROUND THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY NOON
TODAY.

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