Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
725 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

.AVAITION...
DIFFICULT CEILING FORECAST WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM TEXAS PANHANDLE. GREATEST
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR
KGAG/KWWR. PROLONGED RAIN LIKELY NEAR AND EAST OF KSPS. FOG COULD BE
AN ISSUE LATE TONIGHT WITH SATURATED CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND. WILL
NOT GET TOO AGGRESSIVE...BUT WILL BRING IN MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TOMORROW MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TOWARD AND AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.

&&

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO ACCOUNT
FOR POTENTIAL OVER THAT AREA. HEAVY RAIN FOCUS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SOUTH BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROGD TO BE
WEAKER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH MAIN CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  87  72  93 / 100  30  30  20
HOBART OK         66  90  70  94 /  80  30  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  71  94  74  97 / 100  30  30  10
GAGE OK           63  86  68  93 /  40  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     64  85  70  90 /  80  20  20  30
DURANT OK         74  93  74  93 / 100  20  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ008-012-013-
     016>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

11/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-151000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1200 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ALSO WILL BE AN
ONGOING CONCERN.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ERICK TO
CLINTON TO STILLWATER.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SHOULD PLAN FOR CONTINUING FLOODING OPERATIONS AT
LEAST THROUGH EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON. SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
FROM THE OKLAHOMA CITY AREA NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA... NORTHEAST OF A NEARLY-STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDED FROM JUST NORTH OF ALTUS AND LAWTON... TO JUST SOUTH OF
CHICKASHA... TO JUST NORTH OF ADA AT MIDDAY. THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THESE STORMS... BUT THE CONTINUED
LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAIN... ON TOP OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN WHICH
ALREADY HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING... WILL MAINTAIN A
RISK OF SERIOUS AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL LESSEN DURING THE AFTERNOON... BUT
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR PREVAILS
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY... AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND TOWARD WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. INSTABILITY AND
DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER STORMS... POSSIBLY INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS... WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL LARGER THAN
GOLFBALLS... WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH... AND POSSIBLY A FEW
TORNADOES. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE GREATEST OVER WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
MID EVENING. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE
COMPLEXES LATER THIS EVENING AND WILL SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL INCREASE
AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY JUN 15.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
THE FLASH FLOOD DANGER CANNOT BE OVERSTATED IN THE OKLAHOMA CITY
AREA. MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING... AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT
LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. ALL UNNECESSARY TRAVEL IS
DISCOURAGED INTO OR THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA CITY AREA AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... WITH
THE RISK OF FLOODING RAINS CONTINUING. STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN OR
DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS... BUT SCATTERED STORMS MAY
REFORM DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY... WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 AM
TUESDAY.

24

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