Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
749 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND WILL DEPART ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST
THIS EVENING. WEAK SFC LOW PRES...JUST OVER WESTERN NY/PA AND
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WILL DEEPEN AS IT PUSHES CLOSER TO THE
LOCAL AREA. SOME CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP OVER CENTRAL PA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND THIS WILL IMPACT
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. SPC HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COVERING THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LATEST LAPS GUIDANCE HAS SOME MARGINAL ML MUCAPE OVER NORTHEAST
NJ...GENERALLY 300-400 J/KG...AND THIS MAY CREEP UP OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO AS SFC DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE LOWER 50S. THE LIFTED
INDEX IS AROUND -1C. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS WITH MENTION OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

OTHERWISE...THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRES WILL DEEPEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST. 12Z NAM KEEPS THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP
NORTH OF LI SOUND...SPREADING INTO EASTERN LONG ISLAND TOWARDS
DAYBREAK TUE WHEREAS THE 12Z GFS HAS THE LOW A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH...WHICH WOULD SPREAD A BIT MORE OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP INTO
LONG ISLAND EARLIER IN THE EVENING. THE 12Z GFS SEEMS A BIT MORE IN
LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 09Z SREF...SO WILL SIDE WITH A BLEND
OF THOSE MODELS.

WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FCST TONIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE
FOR THUNDER GIVEN FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPS RATES ML MUCAPES
INCREASING TO 600-700 J/KG AS THE LOW PASSES OVERHEAD.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND 60 ACROSS NYC AND SURROUNDING
SUBURBS AND IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRES SOUTH OF CAPE COD TUE MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL TRANSITION
FROM STRATIFORM RAIN TO MORE OF A SHOWERY PTYPE AS UPPER TROUGH
AND SHORTWAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUE. WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE DAY...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARDS EVENING.
HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE A BIT COOLER UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...TOPPING
OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT...MOVING OVERHEAD ON
WED BEFORE DEPARTING WED NIGHT.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SEASONAL TEMPS ON TAP FOR THIS TIME
FRAME...RESULTING IN HIGHS ON TUE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LOWS
GENERALLY AROUND 50 IN/AROUND NYC...IN THE 40S NEAR COASTAL
LOCATIONS AND IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS ALL AT ODDS WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND A COASTAL LOW THAT MAY BRING
HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS TO THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM LATE THU INTO FRI.
THE 12Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE SOLUTIONS...CLOSING OFF
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON THU...WHICH DIGS SWD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THU NIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW THEN TAKES SHAPE
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...RAPIDLY DEEPENING WHILE TRACKING NE
TO OFF THE NEW NEW ENGLAND COAST FRI NIGHT. THE OTHER GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO A LESS AMPLIFIED...MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...NOT WRAPPING UP THE LOW UNTIL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. FORECAST THOUGH WAS BASED ON A BLEND ON THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF...WHICH BOTH POINTED TO A MORE ROBUST SOLUTION. THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF SIMILAR TO THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS.

THUS...WILL ONLY GO AS HIGH AS LIKELY POPS LATE THU INTO FRI FOR
RAIN AND HAVE RAMPED DOWN THE GFS WINDS BASED ON THE OTHER GLOBAL
MODELS. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DRY OUT ON SAT WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUN INTO MON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER PA THIS EVENING...THEN TRACKS
OVER/NEAR LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT...BEFORE DEEPENING AS IT PULLS OFF
TO THE EAST TUESDAY MORNING.

RADAR AT 2345Z SHOWS MAIN CLUSTER THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWESTERN
NJ...WITH LEADING ACTIVITY JUST WEST OF NYC. TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSTMS
AT THE NYC TERMINALS PLUS KHPN AND KSWF UNTIL 01 OR
02Z...DEPENDING ON LOCATION. ANY TERMINALS DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY
STORMS WILL SEE PERIODS OF MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR VSBYS WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. PERIODS
OF SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS
OVER THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT MOST TERMINALS
OUTSIDE THE IMMEDIATE NYC METRO WITH RAIN...FOG AND LOWER
CEILINGS. KEPT VFR CONDITIONS AT KJFK/KLGA/KEWR/KTEB WITH
SCATTERED LOW STRATUS...BUT PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE.

WITH TRACK OF LOW FORECAST NEAR/OVER LONG ISLAND TONIGHT...WIND
DIRECTION AND SPEED FORECAST IS OF VERY LOW CONFIDENCE UNTIL AREA
IS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW BY EARLY MORNING....WHEN AN N-NW FLOW
AROUND 10 KT DEVELOPS. GUSTS TO AROUND 15KT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING FOR
ENDING OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND OVERNIGHT FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND
POSSIBLE MVFR.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING FOR
ENDING OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND OVERNIGHT FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND
POSSIBLE MVFR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING FOR
ENDING OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND OVERNIGHT FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND
POSSIBLE MVFR.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING FOR
ENDING OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND OVERNIGHT FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND
POSSIBLE MVFR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING FOR
ENDING OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND OVERNIGHT FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND
POSSIBLE MVFR.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TIMING OF SHOWERS. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE EVENING. MVFR
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH RAIN...LOW STRATUS AND FOG.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING...VFR.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON-SATURDAY. SUB- VFR DEVELOPING LATE
THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY E-NE
WINDS...THEN BECOMING VFR SATURDAY. THIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
COASTAL LOW DEEPENS AS IT PASSES TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH 20 KT GUSTS...THEN TURN NORTH TUE
MORNING AS LOW PRES DEPARTS AND HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEAST. DO NOT THINK GUSTS WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA AND SEAS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-3 FT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST.

MODELS IN LESS AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z CYCLE WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF
A COASTAL LOW THU NIGHT INTO SAT. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
THIS DEVELOPMENT COULD TAKE PLACE FARTHER OFFSHORE...TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE WATERS. EVEN WITH THAT BEING THE CASE...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A GALE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM FRI INTO
SAT. STAY TUNED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PRES TONIGHT WILL BRING 1/3 TO 3/4 INCH QPF. THE HEAVIEST OF
THE RAIN SHOULD FALL ACROSS CT AND THEN INTO EASTERN LONG ISLAND.
SHOULD CONVECTION DEVELOP...THERE WOULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THIS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANYTHING MORE THAN MINOR NUISANCE
FLOODING.

IT SHOULD BE DRY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...KCS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
342 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

CTZ005>012-NYZ068-078>081-121000-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-PUTNAM-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
342 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067-069>077-121000-
WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-
ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-
QUEENS-NASSAU-
342 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 698 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-340-345-350-353-121000-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
342 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A NOR'EASTER COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING GALE CONDITIONS AND HIGH SEAS DURING
THIS TIME. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOCATION...TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF DEVELOPMENT...SO STAY TUNED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ338-355-121000-
NEW YORK HARBOR-SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
342 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 698 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A NOR'EASTER COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING GALE CONDITIONS AND HIGH SEAS DURING
THIS TIME. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOCATION...TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF DEVELOPMENT...SO STAY TUNED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
826 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     HAIL             KEARNY                  40.75N 74.12W
10/11/2010  E0.75 INCH       HUDSON             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL

&&

JM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
834 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 PM     HAIL             NORTH ARLINGTON         40.79N 74.13W
10/11/2010  M1.00 INCH       BERGEN             NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0824 PM     HAIL             NORTH ARLINGTON         40.79N 74.13W
10/11/2010  E1.00 INCH       BERGEN             NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0824 PM     HAIL             NORTH ARLINGTON         40.79N 74.13W
10/11/2010  E1.00 INCH       BERGEN             NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

KYLE

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