Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
514 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT...THEN STALL WEST OF NEW YORK CITY ON THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
WILL IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS NYC METRO ARE LOW TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS. ISLIP AIRPORT BROKE THE OLD
RECORD OF 86 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP DOWN
TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS NYC METRO AREA AND MID 60S ACROSS INLAND AND
COASTAL AREAS.

MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE MENTION OF TSTM THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THEREFORE HAVE DROPPED
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. KEPT 30 POP FOR FAR
NORTHERN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT. ANY TSTM COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE W OF THE HUDSON RIVER THU. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS. INSTABILITY WILL POOL IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS.
MAIN ISSUE IS HOW FAR W THE FRONT SETTLES...AS STORM MOTION WILL
BE S AT 15-20KT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE A BIT SLOWER AND FURTHER E
THAN THE NAM. FORECAST HEDGES TOWARDS THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS...PUTTING THE WRN 2/3 OF THE CWA AT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. ANY CHANGE IN THE FRONTAL POSITION WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT
ON THE FORECAST WITH MARITIME AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE E.

THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SWWD THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH PCPN CHANCES
ENDING FROM E TO W.

TEMPS THU AT LEAST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE FRONT
AND PCPN. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FRI ACROSS NRN AND ERN ZONES WITH
CLEARING SKIES...AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WRN ZONES WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS AND PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER ERN CANADA BUILDS SWD THROUGH THE REGION SAT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. WLY FLOW
SETS UP SUN AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. SOME CONFLICT WITH
THE MODELS SUN NIGHT AND MON AS THE ECMWF CUTS OFF AN H5 LOW OVER
THE SERN CONUS...ALLOWING FOR THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO DRIVE A COLD
FRONT SWD THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE DRY
ATTM...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE IMPACTED. FOR NOW WENT CLOSER TO AN
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE APPROACH. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT REACHES
THE CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS AND
ECMWF...SO POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT. AFTER THE FRONT...ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SETS UP. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ONE COMPLETELY
DRY DAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO KEPT WED DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEA BREEZE STRUGGLING TO PUSH ANY FURTHER NORTHWARD ACROSS LONG
ISLAND. SEA BREEZE IN CT GIVING WAY TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND WEAK TROUGH.

SEA BREEZE NOT FORECAST TO IMPACT KLGA AND KEWR. HOWEVER...
AS THE SFC FLOW WEAKENS WITH A SFC TROF ACROSS THE AREA...A FLOW
FROM 050 OFF THE EAST RIVER IS POSSIBLE AT KLGA.

OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THE FLOW
SHOULD BACK TOWARDS THE EAST AS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND MOVES SOUTHWEST. THERE MAY BE A FEW POCKETS OF FOG
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY ISOLATED.

WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY AND WILL BECOME EASTERLY BEHIND A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS TO WHERE ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THIS IN
THE TAF.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
     26/21Z 30007KT
     26/22Z 30006KT
     26/23Z 31006KT
     27/00Z 31006KT

KJFK HOURLY WIND FORECAST IN SUPPORT OF RUNWAY 31L/13R CLOSURE
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
     26/21Z 21008KT
     26/22Z 23007KT
     26/23Z 26006KT
     27/00Z 27007KT

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THU AFTERNOON-THU NIGHT...AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED TSTMS WITH SUB VFR
POSSIBLE.
FRI-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS
ACROSS 44025 AND 44017 6.0 TO 6.5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW
TO REMAIN INTO THURSDAY...AND DEEPEN SLIGHTLY...LONG PERIOD SWELLS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST.

LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCA SEAS TO THE OCEAN
THROUGH THU NIGHT. WAVEWATCH APPEARS TO HAVE CAPTURED THIS FEATURE
WELL...SO THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN HAZARDS
ON THE WATERS WILL BE FROM TSTMS THU. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
ATTM. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT LATE MON
AND TUE. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL HOWEVER IS NOT EXPECTED.

MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED THU. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHERE STORMS FOCUS...WITH THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD W OF THE HUDSON RIVER.

WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEN NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WHILE TIDES WILL BE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH THIS WEEK AS WE APPROACH
FULL MOON ON THU...ANOMALIES AROUND 1 FOOT WILL BE NEEDED TO CAUSE
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THIS WILL AID IN INCREASING ANOMALIES
BY 3 TO 4 TENTHS OF A FOOT. TOTAL ANOMALIES BY THE THU EVENING
HIGH TIDE CYCLE MAY BE CLOSE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
BENCHMARKS...MOST LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF
WESTERN LONG ISLAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING WERE TODAY/S RECORDS FOR THE REGION.

SITE...RECORD HIGH/YEAR...
EWR....96/1965
NYC....95/1880
LGA....94/1965
JFK....91/1965
BDR....86/2007
ISP....86/2007

AS OF 330 PM KISP HAS BROKEN THEIR RECORD AND KJFK HAS TIED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...FIG
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...FIG/JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MET/JMC
CLIMATE...BG/JMC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
339 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2010

ANZ335-338-355-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>077-271945-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-
QUEENS-NASSAU-
339 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FROM
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

CTZ005>012-271945-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-
339 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FROM
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-340-345-350-353-NYZ078>081-271945-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
339 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE TWIN FORKS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

JMC