Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS New York, NY

192 
WWUS51 KOKX 192117
SVSOKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
517 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

CTC009-192128-
/O.CAN.KOKX.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-100719T2145Z/
NEW HAVEN CT-
517 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL NEW HAVEN COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 4160 7348 4151 7343 4152 7339 4149 7337
      4147 7330 4145 7329 4143 7322 4139 7315
      4135 7313 4123 7331 4129 7355 4136 7355
      4134 7378 4135 7382 4153 7360 4153 7354
      4160 7351
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 305DEG 21KT 4131 7330

$$

CTC001-NYC079-192145-
/O.CON.KOKX.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-100719T2145Z/
PUTNAM NY-FAIRFIELD CT-
517 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT
FOR FAIRFIELD AND PUTNAM COUNTIES...

AT 514 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BETHEL...OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF NEWTOWN...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MONROE
AND EASTON

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4160 7348 4151 7343 4152 7339 4149 7337
      4147 7330 4145 7329 4143 7322 4139 7315
      4135 7313 4123 7331 4129 7355 4136 7355
      4134 7378 4135 7382 4153 7360 4153 7354
      4160 7351
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 305DEG 21KT 4131 7330

$$

GOODMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
432 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AND STALL OUT
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
EXPECT INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ALONG LEE TROUGH EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS OUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AS WELL AS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH MUCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR SHOWN TO
BE AT MOST 30KT BETWEEN 0 AND 6 KM AGL. SO SOME THUNDERSTORMS STRONG
OR EVEN SEVERE...AS PER THE REGION LOCATION WITHIN SPC'S SLIGHT
RISK AREA. GREATEST RISK THUS FAR HAS BEEN WIND AND THIS WILL
GENERALLY STILL BE THE CASE WITH REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT TOO AS DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WITH LAYER PW VALUES GETTING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75
INCHES WILL MAKE FOR MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE TAPPING INTO.

LAST PLACES TO CLEAR OUT OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT
WILL BE SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND. WILL
DECREASE POPS WEST TO EAST NEAR MIDNIGHT WITH COLD FRONT PASSING
OFFSHORE. LOWS BLEND OF MAV/MET AS TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING IN.

WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BUILDING OCEAN SWELLS...THERE
IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ON ATLANTIC FACING BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FRONT SHOULD WASH OUT SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND REMAIN THE
FOCUS OF A NUMBER OF WEAK WAVES THAT CROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FAST AND QUASI-ZONAL SO THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BEFORE IT
DOES...A DRY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. DAYTIME MIXING TO NEAR 875 HPA WILL BRING
DOWN SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS
CAN BE EXPECTED TO GET TO NEAR 90 WITH THE MIXING OF THE DAY AND
NORTHERLY FLOW TO START OUT. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES IN
LOW 90S RANGE...FALLING JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MODEL AGREEMENT TUES NIGHT AND WED WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE
AT 500 HPA BUT DISAGREEMENT WITH SURFACE FEATURES AND THE ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL. SREF SIMILAR TO NAM SO WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THESE
TWO MODELS FOR TUES NIGHT AND WED. THESE TWO MODELS SHOW A WARM
FRONT PASSING THROUGH EARLY WED AND THEN A COLD FRONT LATER IN THE
DAY WITH SOME DIFFERENCE CONCERNING THE PASSAGE OF THE CENTRAL LOW.
SHORTWAVE WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT TO 40-50 KT WILL CREATE
GREATER DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND NEGATIVE GEOPOTENTIAL TENDENCY...SO
WILL HAVE HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT
AT HIGH END CHANCE NOW WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A COOLER DAY WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND THE POSSIBLE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE IN UPPER 80S WITH THE LOW MOVING ACROSS
AND A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN ON
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SEVERAL
WEAK...PROGRESSIVE DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH THROUGH AT TIMES DURING
THE LONG TERM KEEPING THE AIRMASS UNSETTLED. WHILE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN
THE MID 80S IN COASTAL AREAS AND AROUND 90 INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN NY STATE INTO NW PA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
TOWARDS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

HZ ALOFT LIMITING SLANTWISE VSBY TO AROUND 6SM AT KEWR.

MORNING TSTMS ARE NOW EXITING ERN CT AND LI. LULL IN THE ACTIVITY
BUT THE AIRMASS IS BECOMING UNSTABLE. VFR EXCEPT FOR TSTMS. TAFS
INDICATE GREATEST POTENTIAL BETWEEN 21-01Z...SLIGHTLY EARLIER KSWF
AND LATER KGON. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD-SCT DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN CLUSTER FORECAST IN THE 21-01Z TIME PERIOD. VFR OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH TUE BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS HAVE COME AROUND TO AROUND 220...AND WILL SLOWLY VEER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. ERRATIC DIRECTION
NEAR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT LIKELY IN
THE STRONGEST STORMS. NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED
TO REACH THE AREA 4-8Z.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE NEAR AND W OF THE
TERMINAL BEFORE 20Z. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE NEAR AND W OF THE
TERMINAL BEFORE 20Z. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUE AFTERNOON-WED...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT WITH
A SECOND COMPLEX POSSIBLE WED. OTHERWISE VFR.
THU...VFR WITH GENERALLY NW FLOW.
FRI-SAT...WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SWELL FROM THE SOUTH WILL KEEP EASTERN OCEAN SEAS NEAR 5 FT
STARTING TONIGHT AND GOING THROUGH EARLY TUES NIGHT. LOWER
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER WITH ANY SEAS NEAR 5 FT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND WINDS SHIFTING AND INCREASING WITH LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH AS WELL AS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY ON THE PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND
FRONTAL TIMING. SINCE THIS IS THIRD PERIOD...WILL LET SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS ASSESS WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE AND DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO
EXTEND SCA.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON THURSDAY WILL MAKE FOR WEAK FLOW OVER
THE AREA WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE FLOW INCREASES AND BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...WHICH WILL
BRING SEAS TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED TSTMS THIS EVENING COULD DELIVER ANOTHER QUICK HALF
INCH OF RAIN LOCALLY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD FALL WITH A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>076.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...BC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
717 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

NYZ072>074-201130-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
717 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

NYZ075-076-201130-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-
717 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON.

ALSO...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON ATLANTIC
FACING BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

NYZ077-080-081-201130-
NASSAU-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
717 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON ATLANTIC FACING
BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>071-078-079-201130-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-
EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
717 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-201130-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
717 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
115 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 4 SSE NEW HAVEN         41.25N 72.90W
07/19/2010  M40.00 MPH       ANZ330             CT   BUOY

            35 KT WIND GUST.

1028 AM     LIGHTNING        ESSEX                   41.36N 72.40W
07/19/2010                   MIDDLESEX          CT   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HOUSE FIRE DUE TO LIGHTNING.

1028 AM     LIGHTNING        OLD SAYBROOK            41.29N 72.37W
07/19/2010                   MIDDLESEX          CT   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MINOR DAMAGE TO 2 HOUSES.

1047 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LEDYARD CENTER          41.47N 72.03W
07/19/2010                   NEW LONDON         CT   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

1058 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 15 S ATLANTIC BEACH     40.37N 73.70W
07/19/2010  E41.00 MPH       ANZ355             NY   BUOY

            36 KT WIND GUST.

1112 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 S LONG BEACH          40.58N 73.67W
07/19/2010  E40.00 MPH       ANZ355             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            35 KT WIND GUST.

&&

JOE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
210 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 4 SSE NEW HAVEN         41.25N 72.90W
07/19/2010  M40.00 MPH       ANZ330             CT   BUOY

            35 KT WIND GUST.

1028 AM     LIGHTNING        OLD SAYBROOK            41.29N 72.37W
07/19/2010                   MIDDLESEX          CT   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MINOR DAMAGE TO 2 HOUSES.

1028 AM     LIGHTNING        ESSEX                   41.36N 72.40W
07/19/2010                   MIDDLESEX          CT   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HOUSE FIRE DUE TO LIGHTNING.

1047 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LEDYARD CENTER          41.47N 72.03W
07/19/2010                   NEW LONDON         CT   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

1058 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 15 S ATLANTIC BEACH     40.37N 73.70W
07/19/2010  E41.00 MPH       ANZ355             NY   BUOY

            36 KT WIND GUST.

1112 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 S LONG BEACH          40.58N 73.67W
07/19/2010  E40.00 MPH       ANZ355             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            35 KT WIND GUST.

1130 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 6 SW BABYLON            40.63N 73.39W
07/19/2010  E42.00 MPH       ANZ345             NY   MESONET

            37 KT WIND GUST.

1135 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 WSW ROBERT MOSES STAT 40.62N 73.26W
07/19/2010  E39.00 MPH       SUFFOLK            NY   MESONET

            34 KT WIND GUST.

&&

JOE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
217 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0903 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MAHOPAC                 41.37N 73.74W
07/19/2010                   PUTNAM             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DOWNED TREE.

0945 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 4 SSE NEW HAVEN         41.25N 72.90W
07/19/2010  M40.00 MPH       ANZ330             CT   BUOY

            35 KT WIND GUST.

1028 AM     LIGHTNING        ESSEX                   41.36N 72.40W
07/19/2010                   MIDDLESEX          CT   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HOUSE FIRE DUE TO LIGHTNING.

1028 AM     LIGHTNING        OLD SAYBROOK            41.29N 72.37W
07/19/2010                   MIDDLESEX          CT   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MINOR DAMAGE TO 2 HOUSES.

1047 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LEDYARD CENTER          41.47N 72.03W
07/19/2010                   NEW LONDON         CT   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

1058 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 15 S ATLANTIC BEACH     40.37N 73.70W
07/19/2010  E41.00 MPH       ANZ355             NY   BUOY

            36 KT WIND GUST.

1112 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 S LONG BEACH          40.58N 73.67W
07/19/2010  E40.00 MPH       ANZ355             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            35 KT WIND GUST.

1130 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 6 SW BABYLON            40.63N 73.39W
07/19/2010  E42.00 MPH       ANZ345             NY   MESONET

            37 KT WIND GUST.

1131 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 5 WSW BABYLON           40.66N 73.40W
07/19/2010  M43.00 MPH       ANZ345             NY   MESONET

            37 KT GUST.

1135 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 WSW ROBERT MOSES STAT 40.62N 73.26W
07/19/2010  E39.00 MPH       SUFFOLK            NY   MESONET

            34 KT WIND GUST.

&&

JOE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
301 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

NYZ067-068-192000-
ORANGE-PUTNAM-
301 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ORANGE AND PUTNAM
COUNTIES...

AT 257 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PHILLIPSPORT...OR NEAR ELLENVILLE...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR WALDEN BY 320 PM.
  NEAR GARDNERTOWN BY 335 PM.
  NEAR NEWBURGH BY 340 PM.
  5 MILES NORTHEAST OF COLD SPRING BY 350 PM.
  NEAR FAHNESTOCK STATE PARK BY 400 PM.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 4160 7438 4164 7426 4161 7424 4159 7414
      4162 7413 4162 7410 4159 7405 4159 7396
      4157 7396 4151 7399 4145 7398 4150 7392
      4152 7362 4135 7372 4133 7387 4155 7443

DSW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
352 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

CTZ005-006-NYZ067-068-070-192045-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN
WESTCHESTER-ORANGE-PUTNAM-
352 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN FAIRFIELD...NORTHERN
ORANGE...NORTHERN WESTCHESTER...PUTNAM AND WESTERN NEW HAVEN
COUNTIES...

AT 346 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HOPEWELL JUNCTION TO
FISHKILL TO MIDDLETOWN...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES WEST
OF PAWLING TO BEACON TO MIDDLETOWN...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR NEW WINDSOR BY 400 PM.
  NEAR SHERMAN BY 415 PM.
  NEAR WEST POINT BY 420 PM.
  NEAR CARMEL BY 430 PM.
  NEAR BREWSTER BY 435 PM.
  NEAR NEWTOWN BY 440 PM.

PEOPLE IN FAIRFIELD...NORTHERN ORANGE...NORTHERN WESTCHESTER...PUTNAM
AND WESTERN NEW HAVEN COUNTIES...INCLUDING NEWBURGH...GARDNERTOWN...
MONTGOMERY...NEW WINDSOR...FAHNESTOCK STATE PARK...SHERMAN...LAKE
CARMEL...COLD SPRING...WEST POINT AND CARMEL...SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 4161 7423 4159 7414 4162 7410 4159 7405
      4158 7396 4151 7399 4145 7398 4150 7392
      4153 7354 4160 7353 4159 7347 4151 7343
      4152 7339 4148 7334 4151 7333 4153 7317
      4147 7288 4137 7312 4127 7386 4147 7456

GOODMAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
432 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

CTZ005-009-NYZ070-192130-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-
432 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT FAIRFIELD AND WESTCHESTER
COUNTIES...

AT 431 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CARMEL...OR NEAR BREWSTER...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR DANBURY BY 455 PM.
  6 MILES NORTHEAST OF RIDGEFIELD BY 500 PM.
  NEAR BETHEL BY 505 PM.
  5 MILES NORTHEAST OF GEORGETOWN BY 510 PM.
  NEAR TRUMBULL BY 530 PM.

PEOPLE IN FAIRFIELD AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES...INCLUDING DANBURY...
BETHEL AND TRUMBULL...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE
ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 4138 7315 4134 7313 4130 7307 4115 7315
      4117 7317 4114 7320 4114 7322 4112 7324
      4130 7371 4134 7376 4136 7355 4146 7354
      4149 7353

GOODMAN