Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
343 PM EDT THU APR 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS THROUGH SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND IMPACTS THE LOCAL AREA WITH SOME RAINFALL
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THEN...A FEW WAVES OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. GIVEN LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH THROUGH ABOUT 6 PM OR SO
BEFORE THE ACTIVITY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE ACTIVITY MAY LAST
AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER ACROSS CT.

OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT CLEARING SKIES DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GET DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE OUTLYING AREAS OF THE NORTH AND
WEST...BUT WE THINK THE WINDS WILL STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER. THE ONLY REAL CONCERN
DURING THE PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH CONDITIONS WITH FAVOR IT...THEREFORE WE MAY NEED
FROST ADVISORIES IN SOME ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE MAJOR URBAN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FEATURE FOR LONG TERM IS STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE
WESTERN U.S. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE COUNTRY OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE SATURDAY...WHILE
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS WRAPPED INTO VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW...WHICH AT THAT POINT SHOULD BE IN THE CENTRAL U.S. MEANWHILE
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD POSITION ITSELF NEAR
THE DELMARVA AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE
CWA. MOST MODELS INDICATE PRECIP HOLDING OFF ON SATURDAY. PLAN TO GO
WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT DRY...EXCEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP SW
PORTION OF THE CWA.

BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BRINGS GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW LINGERS OVER THE MIDWEST...BUT MODELS INDICATING A
WEAKER SECONDARY SURFACE LOW FORMING AND TRACKING OFF THE COASTLINE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RAIN BECOMING LIKELY DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

BEHAVIOR OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...BUT 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF DO LOOK SIMILAR.
THEY GENERALLY INDICATE UPPER LOW WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS FROM OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WITH A SURFACE LOW
TRANSITIONING TO THE COAST. GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
MONDAY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. SHOULD BE UNDER W/NW FLOW
ALOFT FOR MIDWEEK...GOING DRY FOR WED.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST A BLEND OF GMOS AND PREVIOUS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS EXIST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT RIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AT ANY TERMINAL
BEFORE RAPIDLY IMPROVING AROUND OR BEFORE 00Z.

KJFK HOURLY WIND FORECAST IN SUPPORT OF RUNWAY 31L/13R CLOSURE
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
  22/20Z 25012G21KT
  22/21Z 26012G19KT
  22/22Z 28012G18KT
  22/23Z 29012KT
  23/00Z 30012KT

OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
SHOWERS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...OCNL SUB-VFR WITH SHOWERS.
&&

.MARINE...

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. A FEW MARGINAL 25 KT GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT HELD OFF ON SCA FOR NOW.

NEXT PROBABLE SCA IS FOR OCEAN WATERS STARTS ON SUNDAY...AS EASTERLY
WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE GUSTY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...
LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN SWELL.  THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1/2 INCH OR MORE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS EARLY THIS EVENING
MAY PRODUCE UP TO A A HALF INCH LOCALLY...WITH BASIN AVERAGES LESS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MLE
NEAR TERM...MLE
SHORT TERM...MLE
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...MLE/NMB
MARINE...MLE/NMB
HYDROLOGY...MLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
405 PM EDT THU APR 22 2010

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-232015-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-
EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
405 PM EDT THU APR 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-232015-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
405 PM EDT THU APR 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
227 PM EDT THU APR 22 2010

NJZ003>006-011-NYZ069-071>076-221930-
BERGEN NJ-BRONX NY-EASTERN PASSAIC NJ-ESSEX NJ-HUDSON NJ-KINGS
(BROOKLYN) NY-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) NY-QUEENS NY-RICHMOND (STATEN IS.)
NY-ROCKLAND NY-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER NY-UNION NJ-
227 PM EDT THU APR 22 2010

AT 222 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
BRIEF LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES EAST OF RAMSEY TO 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MILLBURN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...CHESTNUT RIDGE...NANUET...SPRING VALLEY
AND HILLCREST BY 230 PM EDT...PEARL RIVER...ORANGEBURG...BLAUVELT AND
WEST NYACK BY 240 PM EDT...PIERMONT AND GRAND VIEW-ON-HUDSON BY 250
PM EDT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH MANHATTAN AND THE BRONX AROUND
250 PM...THEN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REST OF NEW YORK CITY THEREAFTER.

FOR YOUR SAFETY...GET INSIDE WHEN THESE STORMS APPROACH. HEAVY RAIN
MAY CAUSE MINOR STREET FLOODING AS WELL AS PONDING OF WATER IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. GET
INDOORS WHEN STORMS APPROACH. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...STAY AWAY
FROM ISOLATED TALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. AVOID OPEN AREAS SUCH AS
GOLF COURSES OR BALL FIELDS.

EKSTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
237 PM EDT THU APR 22 2010

CTZ008-221900-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON CT-
237 PM EDT THU APR 22 2010

AT 230 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH AND SMALL HAIL 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NORWICH...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...NORTH STONINGTON BY 300 PM EDT.

FOR YOUR SAFETY...GET INSIDE WHEN THIS STORM APPROACHES. HEAVY RAIN
MAY CAUSE MINOR STREET FLOODING AS WELL AS PONDING OF WATER IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. GET
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED TALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. AVOID
OPEN AREAS SUCH AS GOLF COURSES OR BALL FIELDS.

EKSTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
315 PM EDT THU APR 22 2010

NYZ072-073-075>077-221945-
BRONX NY-KINGS (BROOKLYN) NY-NASSAU NY-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) NY-QUEENS
NY-
315 PM EDT THU APR 22 2010

AT 314 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO
45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM THROGS NECK BRIDGE
TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BAY RIDGE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
THROGS NECK BRIDGE TO 2 MILES SOUTH OF VERRAZANO-NARROWS BRIDGE...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...GREAT NECK AND KINGS POINT BY 320 PM
EDT...SEARINGTOWN AND MANHASSET BY 330 PM EDT...MINEOLA AND EAST
WILLISTON BY 340 PM EDT...EAST ROCKAWAY AND ROCKVILLE CENTRE BY 350
PM EDT.

FOR YOUR SAFETY...GET INSIDE WHEN THESE STORMS APPROACH. HEAVY RAIN
MAY CAUSE MINOR STREET FLOODING AS WELL AS PONDING OF WATER IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. GET
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE NOW! IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED TALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. AVOID OPEN AREAS SUCH
AS GOLF COURSES OR BALL FIELDS.

EKSTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
348 PM EDT THU APR 22 2010

CTZ007-008-011-012-222030-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX CT-NORTHERN NEW LONDON CT-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX
CT-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON CT-
348 PM EDT THU APR 22 2010

AT 344 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH AND SMALL HAIL 4 MILES NORTH OF EAST HADDAM...OR ABOUT 4 MILES
SOUTH OF EAST HAMPTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...EAST HADDAM BY 400 PM EDT...CHESTER
BY 410 PM EDT...MILLINGTON AND DEEP RIVER BY 420 PM EDT...NORTH LYME
AND SALEM BY 430 PM EDT.

FOR YOUR SAFETY...GET INSIDE WHEN THIS STORM APPROACHES. HEAVY RAIN
MAY CAUSE MINOR STREET FLOODING AS WELL AS PONDING OF WATER IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. GET
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE NOW! IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED TALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. AVOID OPEN AREAS SUCH
AS GOLF COURSES OR BALL FIELDS.

EKSTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
350 PM EDT THU APR 22 2010

NYZ077-080-222030-
NASSAU NY-SOUTHWEST SUFFOLK NY-
350 PM EDT THU APR 22 2010

AT 348 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH AND PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL OVER LEVITTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...LINDENHURST AND COPIAGUE BY 400 PM
EDT...BABYLON AND WEST ISLIP BY 410 PM EDT...CAPTREE STATE PARK AND
SALTAIRE BY 420 PM EDT...OCEAN BEACH AND 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DAVIS
PARK BY 430 PM EDT.

FOR YOUR SAFETY...GET INSIDE WHEN THIS STORM APPROACHES. HEAVY RAIN
MAY CAUSE MINOR STREET FLOODING AS WELL AS PONDING OF WATER IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. GET
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE NOW! IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED TALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. AVOID OPEN AREAS SUCH
AS GOLF COURSES OR BALL FIELDS.

MLE

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