Alert archive / New York / High Wind Warnings in 2010

High Wind Warning 3, NWS New York, NY

September 30, 20108 counties in New York; Hudson County, Passaic County, New Jersey; 4 counties in Connecticut

NWS New York, NY issued this high wind warning at Sep 30, 2010, 4:23 AM EDT for 8 counties in New York; Hudson County, Passaic County, New Jersey; 4 counties in Connecticut. It took effect at Sep 30, 2010, 11:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 17 hr. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Sep 30, 2010, 4:23 AM EDT (08:23 UTC)
In effect from
Sep 30, 2010, 11:00 AM EDT
Expired
Oct 1, 2010, 4:26 AM EDT
In force
17 hr
Issued by
NWS New York, NY

Counties Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, CT, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, CT, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, CT, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region, CT, Hudson County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Bronx County, NY, Kings County, NY, New York County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Suffolk County, NY, Westchester County, NY

The radar

The Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 61 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Sep 30, 4:55 PM EDTNON-TSTM WND DMGCongers, NYTREE FELL ONTO HOUSE ON LAKEWOOD ROAD KNOCKING DOWN POWERLINES.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 00:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 61 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 00:00Z on 2010-09-30Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 00:00Z on 2010-09-30The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 19 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1481 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
19 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
59 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

295 
WWUS71 KOKX 300823
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
423 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...HIGH WINDS TO DEVELOP TODAY...

.A WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL ROTATE TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
STALL TO THE WEST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT. AT THE SAME
TIME...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CREATE A CORRIDOR OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE FRONT TRACKS EAST AGAIN THROUGH THE REGION.

NJZ003>005-011-NYZ068>070-301630-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WI.Y.0010.100930T1500Z-101001T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.W.0003.100930T1500Z-101001T1000Z/
BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-UNION-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
423 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM
EDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
FRIDAY. THE WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON...LASTING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.

WIND GUSTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MINOR
PROPERTY DAMAGE...DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$

CTZ005-006-009-010-NJZ006-NYZ071>078-080-301630-
/O.UPG.KOKX.HW.A.0003.100930T1500Z-101001T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.W.0003.100930T1500Z-101001T1000Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-HUDSON-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
423 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM
EDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND
WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS
MORNING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON...LASTING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.

WIND GUSTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MINOR
PROPERTY DAMAGE...DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$

CTZ007-008-011-012-NYZ079-081-301630-
/O.UPG.KOKX.HW.A.0003.100930T1500Z-101001T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.W.0003.100930T1700Z-101001T1400Z/
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
423 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM
EDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND
WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED BY EVENING...LASTING THROUGH MOST
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING.

WIND GUSTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MINOR
PROPERTY DAMAGE...DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$

NJZ002-NYZ067-301630-
/O.EXT.KOKX.WI.Y.0010.100930T1500Z-101001T0400Z/
WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-
423 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO THIS
EVENING. THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND MOIST
SOILS DUE TO THE IMMINENT HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED
TREE DAMAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH...
OR GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. WINDS THIS
STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

JMC
5 follow-up statements
514 
WWUS71 KOKX 301610
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1210 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...HIGH WINDS TO DEVELOP TODAY...

.A WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL ROTATE TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY
AND STALL TO THE WEST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT. AT THE SAME
TIME...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CREATE A CORRIDOR OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE FRONT TRACKS EAST AGAIN THROUGH THE
REGION.

CTZ005-006-009-010-NJZ003>006-011-NYZ068>078-080-302200-
/O.CON.KOKX.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-101001T1000Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
1210 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE
EXPECTED AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON...LASTING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.

WIND GUSTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MINOR
PROPERTY DAMAGE...DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$

CTZ007-008-011-012-NYZ079-081-302200-
/O.CON.KOKX.HW.W.0003.100930T1700Z-101001T1400Z/
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
1210 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE
EXPECTED AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON...LASTING THROUGH MOST OF 
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING.

WIND GUSTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MINOR
PROPERTY DAMAGE...DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$

NJZ002-NYZ067-302200-
/O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-101001T0400Z/
WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-
1210 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. 
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO THIS EVENING.
THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND MOIST
SOILS DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TREE DAMAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH...
OR GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. WINDS THIS
STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$
327 
WWUS71 KOKX 302110
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
510 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...HIGH WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...

.WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT...WITH THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. STRONG WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

CTZ005-006-009-010-NJZ003>006-011-NYZ068>078-080-011000-
/O.CON.KOKX.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-101001T1000Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
510 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH...WITH WIND GUSTS MAINLY
40 TO 50 MPH. THE POTENTIAL FOR 60 MPH WIND GUSTS REMAINS TONIGHT
COINCIDING WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. WIND GUSTS TONIGHT WILL BE
CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES DUE TO MOIST SOILS FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$

CTZ007-008-011-012-NYZ079-081-011000-
/O.CON.KOKX.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-101001T1400Z/
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
510 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH...WITH WIND GUSTS MAINLY
40 TO 50 MPH. THE POTENTIAL FOR 60 MPH WIND GUSTS REMAINS INTO
FRIDAY MORNING COINCIDING WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. WIND GUSTS
DURING THE WARNING PERIOD WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES DUE TO
MOIST SOILS FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$

NJZ002-NYZ067-010400-
/O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-101001T0400Z/
WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-
510 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO
50 MPH. WIND GUSTS TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES DUE
TO MOIST SOILS FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH...
OR GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. WINDS THIS
STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$
798 
WWUS71 KOKX 010124
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
924 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...HIGH WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...

.WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT...WITH THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. STRONG WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING.

CTZ005-006-009-010-NJZ003>006-011-NYZ068>078-080-011000-
/O.CON.KOKX.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-101001T1000Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
924 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT. SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH WIND GUSTS
MAINLY 40 TO 50 MPH. THE POTENTIAL FOR 60 MPH WIND GUSTS REMAINS
TONIGHT COINCIDING WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. WIND GUSTS TONIGHT WILL
BE CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES DUE TO MOIST SOILS FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$

CTZ007-008-011-012-NYZ079-081-011000-
/O.CON.KOKX.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-101001T1400Z/
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
924 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT. SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH WIND GUSTS
MAINLY 40 TO 50 MPH. THE POTENTIAL FOR 60 MPH WIND GUSTS REMAINS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING COINCIDING WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. WIND GUSTS
DURING THE WARNING PERIOD WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES DUE TO
MOIST SOILS FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$

NJZ002-NYZ067-011000-
/O.EXT.KOKX.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-101001T1000Z/
WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-
924 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT. SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH...WITH WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH. WIND GUSTS TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOWNING
TREES DUE TO MOIST SOILS FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH...
OR GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. WINDS THIS
STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$
491 
WWUS71 KOKX 010604
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
204 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

...HIGH WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH THE
BOUNDARY SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK. STRONG WINDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE BEFORE
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING.

NJZ003>006-011-NYZ069-011000-
/O.CAN.KOKX.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-101001T1000Z/
/O.EXA.KOKX.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-101001T1000Z/
BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-ROCKLAND-
204 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40
TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK. WIND GUSTS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES DUE TO MOIST SOILS FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND DAYBREAK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH...
OR GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. WINDS THIS
STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

CTZ005-006-009-010-NYZ068-070>078-080-011000-
/O.CON.KOKX.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-101001T1000Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-PUTNAM-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
204 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING. 

SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE POTENTIAL FOR 60 MPH WIND
GUSTS REMAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS COINCIDING WITH
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. WIND GUSTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES
DUE TO MOIST SOILS FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND DAYBREAK. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$

CTZ007-008-011-012-NYZ079-081-011400-
/O.CON.KOKX.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-101001T1400Z/
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
204 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING. 

SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 60 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WIND GUSTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DOWNING TREES DUE TO MOIST SOILS FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. THE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

$$

NJZ002-NYZ067-011000-
/O.CON.KOKX.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-101001T1000Z/
WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-
204 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING. 

SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40
TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK. WIND GUSTS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES DUE TO MOIST SOILS FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND DAYBREAK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH...
OR GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. WINDS THIS
STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

MPS
955 
WWUS71 KOKX 010826
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
426 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY
QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AFTER
DAYBREAK. 

CTZ007-008-011-012-NYZ079-081-011400-
/O.CAN.KOKX.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-101001T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0011.101001T0826Z-101001T1400Z/
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
426 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING. THE
HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WIND GUSTS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES DUE TO MOIST SOILS FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH...
OR GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. WINDS THIS
STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

CTZ005-006-009-010-NYZ068-070>078-080-011200-
/O.CAN.KOKX.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-101001T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0011.101001T0826Z-101001T1200Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-PUTNAM-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
426 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING. THE
HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK. WIND GUSTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DOWNING TREES DUE TO MOIST SOILS FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. THE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER DAYBREAK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH...
OR GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. WINDS THIS
STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067-069-010930-
/O.CAN.KOKX.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-101001T1000Z/
WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-
ROCKLAND-
426 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WIND GUSTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 50 MPH. THEREFORE...THE WIND ADVISORY
IS CANCELLED. 

$$

MPS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this high wind warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this high wind warning went out at Sep 30, 1:38 AM EDT, 2 hours 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 30, 1:38 AM EDT, 2 hours 45 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
138 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE EAST. ANOTHER
LOW WILL TRACK TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...AND NEAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE FRIDAY...WITH A THIRD LOW
TRACKING TO OUR SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
THEN MOVES OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STEADY RAIN STILL MOVING THROUGH VIRGINIA. TIMING BRINGS THE
STEADY RAIN INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND THE NYC METRO 07Z TO
08Z...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING OVER
THE AREA AT THAT TIME. WILL SEE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCES OF SOME
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN BEFORE THEN. SO BACKED OFF ON THE
POPS...HOLD OFF ON CATEGORICAL UNTIL 07Z.

TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ATTENTION TURNS TO WAVES OF NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTS THU INTO THU
NIGHT...AND RIDING NORTHWARD. THE FIRST OF THESE...ALONG WITH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE VIA AN ASSOCIATED STRONG 60-70 KT SOUTHERLY H8
JET...SHOULD HELP FOCUS LOW LEVEL LIFT NEAR THE NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL ZONE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AS PW
SURGES TO OVER 2 INCHES. THIS FIRST WAVE SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH
BY LATE DAY THU...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE...AND AIDED BY ANOTHER STRONG SOUTHERLY 75-KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK AS WELL AS THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN
INTENSIFYING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.

MEANWHILE...THE AREA WILL BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE LOWS AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
DAMAGING WINDS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT AT THE LLJ PASSES OVERHEAD. EXPANDED HIGH WIND WATCH INTO
THE REST OF SOUTHERN CT...AND ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
AREAS NOT COVERED BY THE HIGH WIND WATCH.

SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK ALSO NOTES POSSIBLE LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WHICH COULD SPAWN A TORNADO OR TWO IN FAST-MOVING
CONVECTION...WHICH FROM LOOKS OF FCST SOUNDINGS MAY NOT CONTAIN
THUNDER DURING THE DAY THU...BUT COULD DURING THU NIGHT AS LAPSE
RATES BECOME MOIST ADIABATIC WITH STRONG FORCED ASCENT.

AS WITH ANY STORM...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE MOST EXTREME FEATURES. ADJUSTMENTS TO
THIS FORECAST ARE THEREFORE POSSIBLE AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.

THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE CWA FRI MORNING...SHUNTING ALL OF
THE DEEP MOISTURE OFFSHORE AND CUTTING OFF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON ATTM...BUT 12Z ECMWF
CONTINUES THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INTO LONG ISLAND/CT FOR MOST OF
FRI...AS IT BRINGS A CIRCULATION POSSIBLY TRACEABLE TO THE
EVENTUAL REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHEAST CANADA PREVAILS THIS TIME
FRAME. HUGE DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH REGARD TO OPERATIONAL GFS AS
COMPARED TO 00Z EC/GGEM. BIG DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING AND EVOLUTION
OF TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH STRONG
RIDGING OCCURRING AS THE TROUGH PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. GGEM/EC
SUGGEST PERSISTENT TROUGH THAT CLOSES OFF INTO A STRONG CLOSED LOW.
GEFS LINGERS A MUCH WEAKER TROUGH...WHICH GIVES SOME MERIT TO AT
LEAST A LINGERING TROUGH SCENARIO AS OPPOSED TO LARGE BUILDING RIDGE.

AS SUCH...EXPECT TROUGH TO EXIT ALONG WITH SFC LOW THIS WEEKEND.
LOWERING HEIGHTS AS FORECAST BY MOST MODELS ALONG WITH NORTHERLY SFC
FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.

DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES NOTED NEXT WEEK...WILL FOLLOW HPC GUIDANCE
AND SLOWLY INCREASE POPS TUE AND WED WITH THE ASSUMPTION OF
LINGERING TROUGH...AND WEAK SFC LOW REFLECTION TO OUR SOUTH.

COOL TEMPS CONTINUE BASED ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH MINIMAL POPS AS
MENTIONED FOR NOW. STAY TUNED TO SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS FOR HOPEFULLY
BETTER CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR...THEN TO IFR BY DAYBREAK AS PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTH PUSHES NORTH. THINK IFR
CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS RIGHT AROUND 12Z.

IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD IN MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. PERIODS OF LIFR ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...AND LIFR TO
VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. EASTERN TERMINALS MAY EXPERIENCE A
PERIOD WHERE IT IS DRY THIS AFTERNOON...YET CIGS WILL STILL BE
IFR.

SE WINDS 5-10 KT THROUGH MID-MORNING...INCREASING TO 15 KT WITH
20-25 KT GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE FURTHER TO 20-25 KT WITH 30-35 KT
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS ALOFT AT 2K FT WILL INCREASE
TO 50-60 KT...AND INCLUDED LLWS IN TAFS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THU NIGHT...IFR IN +RA AND 30-35 KT WINDS AND LLWS.
FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS.
FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
SAT-MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAHS CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...WITH SEAS STILL RUNNING
ABOVE 5 FT. OCEAN SEAS COULD DROP BELOW 5 FT BRIEFLY LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THEN INCREASING SE-S FLOW WILL TAKE OVER...WITH
GALES BY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLE OCNL GUSTS TO STORM FORCE. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THU
NIGHT...POSSIBLY RAMPING UP AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE STILL
PROBLEMATIC...SO GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT
ONLY.

STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...THEN NORTH TO NORTHWEST GUSTY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL TO THE WEST. AS THE HIGH NEARS
THE WATERS...WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN TIME.

SEAS REMAIN RATHER ROUGH INITIALLY AS STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN EXPECT SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN NORTHWEST/NORTH
FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THU
NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO MUCH OF FRI ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND/CT. CURRENT QPF HAS BEEN INCREASED...WITH AREAL QPF OF
4-6 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE CWA...HIGHEST OVER NE NJ AND HE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY. RAINFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE
FROM NYC WEST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU AFTERNOON...AND
AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT.
URBAN FLOODING AND MINOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING ARE EXPECTED...WITH
SOME MAIN STEM RIVERS RISING TO NEAR BANK FULL. MODERATE TO MAJOR
SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH MINOR TO MODERATE
MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING WHERE WORST CASE QPF COMES TO PASS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BATTERING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH HIGH SURF...BEACH EROSION AND
WASHOVERS. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT ON
THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS...POSSIBLY ALSO AT THE MORE
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST OF SW CT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ067>081.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR NYZ071>081.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ067>070.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR NYZ075>077-080-081.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ002>006-011.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR NJZ006.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     NJZ002>005-011.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 29, 4:11 PM EDT, 12 hours 12 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
411 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

CTZ005>012-NJZ006-NYZ071>074-078-079-301700-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-HUDSON-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
411 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   HIGH WIND WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

NJZ002>005-011-NYZ067>070-301700-
WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-
ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
411 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-301700-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
411 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

NYZ075>077-080-081-301700-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
411 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT
FRIDAY...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
   HIGH WIND WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

The office that day

Everything else NWS New York, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 30, 5:50 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryOKXBronx, Kings, Nassau, New York, Queens, Richmond and 3 more2 hr
Sep 30, 8:20 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningOKXOrange, Putnam, Rockland, Westchester46 min

Nearby

High Wind Warnings in New York, 2010High Wind Warnings in Connecticut, 2010High Wind Warnings in New Jersey, 2010Every high wind warning in 2010

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.