High Surf Advisory 7, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
406 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
RIDE NORTHWARD ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE COAST
WHILE PICKING UP COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE...PRODUCING A WIND
DRIVEN HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STEADY RAIN STILL BACK OVER DELMARVA ATTM...WITH JUST A FEW LEADING
SPITS ENTERING SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NJ. THIS STEADY RAIN WILL ADVANCE
NORTHWARD TONIGHT...AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATE AS DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVERRUNS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS...THAT SHOULD RETROGRADE TONIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ATTENTION TURNS TO WAVES OF NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTS THU INTO THU
NIGHT...AND RIDING NORTHWARD. THE FIRST OF THESE...ALONG WITH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE VIA AN ASSOCIATED STRONG 60-70 KT SOUTHERLY H8
JET...SHOULD HELP FOCUS LOW LEVEL LIFT NEAR THE NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL ZONE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AS PW
SURGES TO OVER 2 INCHES. THIS FIRST WAVE SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH
BY LATE DAY THU...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE...AND AIDED BY ANOTHER STRONG SOUTHERLY 75-KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK AS WELL AS THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN
INTENSIFYING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.

MEANWHILE...THE AREA WILL BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE LOWS AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
DAMAGING WINDS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT AT THE LLJ PASSES OVERHEAD. EXPANDED HIGH WIND WATCH INTO
THE REST OF SOUTHERN CT...AND ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
AREAS NOT COVERED BY THE HIGH WIND WATCH.

SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK ALSO NOTES POSSIBLE HIGH CAPE/LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WHICH COULD SPAWN A TORNADO OR TWO IN FAST-MOVING
CONVECTION...WHICH FROM LOOKS OF FCST SOUNDINGS MAY NOT CONTAIN
THUNDER DURING THE DAY THU...BUT COULD DURING THU NIGHT AS LAPSE
RATES BECOME MOIST ADIABATIC WITH STRONG FORCED ASCENT.

AS WITH ANY STORM...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE MOST EXTREME FEATURES. ADJUSTMENTS TO
THIS FORECAST ARE THEREFORE POSSIBLE AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.

THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE CWA FRI MORNING...SHUNTING ALL OF
THE DEEP MOISTURE OFFSHORE AND CUTTING OFF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON ATTM...BUT 12Z ECMWF
CONTINUES THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INTO LONG ISLAND/CT FOR MOST OF
FRI...AS IT BRINGS A CIRCULATION POSSIBLY TRACEABLE TO THE
EVENTUAL REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHEAST CANADA PREVAILS THIS TIME
FRAME. HUGE DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH REGARD TO OPERATIONAL GFS AS
COMPARED TO 00Z EC/GGEM. BIG DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING AND EVOLUTION
OF TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH STRONG
RIDGING OCCURRING AS THE TROUGH PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. GGEM/EC
SUGGEST PERSISTENT TROUGH THAT CLOSES OFF INTO A STRONG CLOSED LOW.
GEFS LINGERS A MUCH WEAKER TROUGH...WHICH GIVES SOME MERIT TO AT
LEAST A LINGERING TROUGH SCENARIO AS OPPOSED TO LARGE BUILDING RIDGE.

AS SUCH...EXPECT TROUGH TO EXIT ALONG WITH SFC LOW THIS WEEKEND.
LOWERING HEIGHTS AS FORECAST BY MOST MODELS ALONG WITH NORTHERLY SFC
FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.

DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES NOTED NEXT WEEK...WILL FOLLOW HPC GUIDANCE
AND SLOWLY INCREASE POPS TUE AND WED WITH THE ASSUMPTION OF
LINGERING TROUGH...AND WEAK SFC LOW REFLECTION TO OUR SOUTH.

COOL TEMPS CONTINUE BASED ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH MINIMAL POPS AS
MENTIONED FOR NOW. STAY TUNED TO SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS FOR HOPEFULLY
BETTER CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT IN VICINITY OF EASTERN PORTIONS OF AREA BY EASTERN
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT WHERE IT WILL MOVE EAST A
LITTLE FURTHER BEFORE STALLING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT THEN
BEGINS TO SLOWLY PUSH WEST TONIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE CAROLINAS.

VFR TODAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS UNDER 10 KT WITH MORE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DIRECTION ON JUST HOW MUCH TO THE SOUTHWEST THE
WINDS TURN BY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWER THIS EVENING
BEFORE BECOMING MVFR LATE TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR RAIN MOVING INTO ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z
THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 40KT AT 2KFT.

         NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF END OF
VARIABLE WINDS...AND WIND DIRECTION COULD BE 10-20 DEGREES
DIFFERENT THAN FORECAST MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF END OF
VARIABLE WINDS...AND WIND DIRECTION COULD BE 10-20 DEGREES
DIFFERENT THAN FORECAST MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF END OF
VARIABLE WINDS...AND WIND DIRECTION COULD BE 10-20 DEGREES
DIFFERENT THAN FORECAST MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF END OF
VARIABLE WINDS...AND WIND DIRECTION COULD BE 10-20 DEGREES
DIFFERENT THAN FORECAST MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF END OF
VARIABLE WINDS...AND WIND DIRECTION COULD BE 10-20 DEGREES
DIFFERENT THAN FORECAST MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF END OF
VARIABLE WINDS...AND WIND DIRECTION COULD BE 10-20 DEGREES
DIFFERENT THAN FORECAST MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR WITH HEAVY RAIN IN SHRA. STRONG S
WINDS WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35KT AND LLWS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAHS CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...WITH SEAS STILL RUNNING
ABOVE 5 FT. OCEAN SEAS COULD DROP BELOW 5 FT BRIEFLY LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THEN INCREASING SE-S FLOW WILL TAKE OVER...WITH
GALES BY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLE OCNL GUSTS TO STORM FORCE. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THU
NIGHT...POSSIBLY RAMPING UP AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE STILL
PROBLEMATIC...SO GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT
ONLY.

STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...THEN NORTH TO NORTHWEST GUSTY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL TO THE WEST. AS THE HIGH NEARS
THE WATERS...WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN TIME.

SEAS REMAIN RATHER ROUGH INITIALLY AS STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN EXPECT SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN NORTHWEST/NORTH
FLOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THU
NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO MUCH OF FRI ESPECIALLY ACROSS
LONG ISLAND/CT. CURRENT QPF HAS BEEN INCREASED...WITH AREAL QPF OF
4-6 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE CWA...HIGHEST OVER NE NJ AND HE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY. RAINFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE
FROM NYC WEST FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU AFTERNOON...AND
AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT.
URBAN FLOODING AND MINOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING ARE EXPECTED...WITH
SOME MAIN STEM RIVERS RISING TO NEAR BANK FULL. MODERATE TO MAJOR
SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH MINOR TO MODERATE
MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING WHERE WORST CASE QPF COMES TO PASS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BATTERING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH HIGH SURF...BEACH EROSION AND
WASHOVERS. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING APPEARS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT ON
THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS...POSSIBLY ALSO AT THE MORE
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST OF SW CT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR CTZ005>012.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR NYZ067>081.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ071>081.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ067>070.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ075>077-080-081.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR NJZ002>006-011.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
     NIGHT FOR NJZ006.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     NJZ002>005-011.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GOODMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
411 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

CTZ005>012-NJZ006-NYZ071>074-078-079-301700-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-HUDSON-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
411 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   HIGH WIND WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

NJZ002>005-011-NYZ067>070-301700-
WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-
ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
411 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-301700-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
411 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

NYZ075>077-080-081-301700-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
411 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT
FRIDAY...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
   HIGH WIND WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.