Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS New York, NY

913 
WGUS71 KOKX 130426
FFSOKX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1226 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

NYC071-130436-
/O.CAN.KOKX.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-100613T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ORANGE NY-
1226 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2010

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ORANGE COUNTY...

HEAVY RAINS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THERE MAY STILL BE WATER 
COVERING ROADS IN SPOTS. THOSE TRAVELING TONIGHT ARE URGED TO USE 
EXTRA CAUTION. DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREA WHERE WATER CROSSES THE ROAD. 

LAT...LON 4150 7474 4151 7448 4160 7438 4164 7427
      4161 7424 4159 7414 4162 7413 4162 7410
      4159 7405 4159 7396 4151 7399 4145 7399
      4140 7395 4135 7397 4132 7398 4123 7411
      4144 7476

$$

SMITH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1053 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT WILL END THE STAGNANT AND
OCCASIONALLY INCLEMENT PATTERN OF THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS APPROACHED NORTHWEST ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND UPSTREAM FROM SFC LOW STILL IN
NORTHERN PA. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWER OR TSTM
OVERNIGHT IS ACROSS INTERIOR...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SRN CT.
SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS NON EXISTENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH
HIGHEST SFC BASED CAPE TO THE WEST WHERE CONVECTION IS
INITIATING. HOWEVER...SOME ELEVATED CAPE NOTED ACROSS OUR CWA. ANY
FORCING THROUGH AND ABOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION LAYER COULD
SUSTAIN SOME SHOWER OR TSTM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. OVERALL
THOUGH...WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH BOTH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK OK...WITH MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT T/TD
TRENDS ACCOMPLISHED EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
N/NE LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
THIS FLOW...IN CONJUNCTION WITH BKN-OVC SKIES...WILL AGAIN LIMIT
SFC BASED INSTABILITY ON SUN. WILL AGAIN GO WITH SCATTERED POPS AS
IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN. IN FACT...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODEL OUTPUT...THE SOLUTIONS ARE
FAIRLY DRY. WHERE CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS LIKELY WITH PW/S OVER 1.5IN.

WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED POPS THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL THE MOIST RIDGE IS
BROKEN DOWN BY A COLD FRONT PLOWING SWD OUT OF CANADA. TIMING OF THE
FRONT IN THE MON NIGHT PERIOD...CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS WHICH HAD
SUPPORT FROM THE 00/12Z ECMWF.

DRY AND SEASONAL ON TUE BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPS BELOW 80 WITH
SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL/ENSEMBLE MODELS INCLUDING EC/GFS/GFS ENS MEAN AND
GGEM SUGGEST A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
NOTED.

MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST EXITS GIVING WAY TO WEAK RIDGING TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

WEAK TROUGH OBSERVED AT THE SFC AND ALOFT COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. GGEM/12Z GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO STRENGTH OF MID
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THUS DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP AS
COMPARED TO EC. WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED WITH REGARD TO
STRENGTH OF UPPER TROUGH...WILL KEEP POPS CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR NOW.

THIS WEAK FEATURE REMAINS PROGRESSIVE...AND RIDGING FOLLOWED BY
DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES HOLD THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. DRY THIS
TIME FRAME AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COULD BE LOOKING AT
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY AS NEXT
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE TUNE
DETAILS THOUGH.

AS FOR TEMPS...NEAR NORMAL MID WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP NOTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOULD BE QUITE WARM AND MUGGY BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR. SUB VFR ACROSS TERMINALS NORTH OF NYC.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND CT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL.

OTHERWISE...AN APPROACHING WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND CONTINUED ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS TONIGHT. TIMING/COVERAGE
STILL IN QUESTIONS ACROSS NJ...NYC..AND LONG ISLAND AND WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY A CB CLOUD GROUP.

A HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF LOW STRATUS TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS AND
POCKETS OF IFR...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
LATE NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING. THE STRATUS SHOULD GRADUALLY
LIFT WITH DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE MORNING...BUT CONDITIONS WILL
MOST LIKELY STILL BE MVFR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. BY MID
AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR.

 ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

KJFK HOURLY WIND FORECAST IN SUPPORT OF RUNWAY 31L/13R CLOSURE
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
     13/12Z VRB03KT
     13/13Z VRB03KT
     13/14Z 04004KT
     13/15Z 04004KT
     13/16Z 11004KT
     13/17Z 11005KT
     13/18Z 13005KT
     13/19Z 15005KT
     13/20Z 15005KT
     13/21Z 15005KT
     13/22Z 12005KT
     13/23Z VRB04KT
     14/00Z VRB04KT

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THU...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON...OCNL SUB-VFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
MON NIGHT-THU...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A GENERAL INCREASE IN THE SOUTH FLOW OVERNIGHT. SCA UP FOR THE
OCEAN. SEAS WERE LIMITED TO 5 FT...WITH 6 FT SEAS PER WAVEWATCH
LIKELY TOO HIGH IN S FLOW. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SAG S LATE
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT NE FLOW ON SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS FROM THE N MON NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS WITH THE FRONT ATTM. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR TUE.

LIGHT WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
INITIALLY BUILDS OVER THE WATERS...THEN MOVES EAST. WEAK TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WATERS LATER WEDNESDAY AS IT PASSES TO THE EAST BY
THURSDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SUB SCA CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MON.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED...BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
907 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-
NYZ067>081-132045-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-
HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
907 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
838 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

NYZ067-068-070-130130-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-ORANGE-PUTNAM-
838 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN WESTCHESTER...ORANGE AND
PUTNAM COUNTIES...

AT 833 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SULLIVAN COUNTY MOVING EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH
RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE INCH AN HOUR...IS POSSIBLE. THIS COULD
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 4150 7474 4151 7448 4160 7438 4164 7427
      4160 7421 4159 7414 4162 7413 4162 7410
      4159 7405 4159 7396 4145 7398 4150 7392
      4153 7353 4139 7357 4125 7395 4125 7397
      4132 7398 4126 7406 4129 7432 4145 7476

PW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
930 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

CTZ005-006-NYZ067-068-130230-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-ORANGE-PUTNAM-
930 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN FAIRFIELD...
NORTHERN ORANGE...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEW HAVEN AND PUTNAM
COUNTIES...

AT 924 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN
ORANGE COUNTY AND APPROACHING PUTNAM AND NORTHERN FAIRFIELD
COUNTIES. FAIRFIELD AND NEW HAVEN COUNTIES MAY NOT BE AFFECTED BY
THESE STORMS UNTIL AFTER 10 PM. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY
IS HEAVY RAIN. RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 4150 7466 4151 7448 4155 7444 4158 7396
      4157 7396 4145 7398 4150 7392 4153 7354
      4167 7351 4151 7344 4152 7339 4148 7334
      4151 7333 4152 7317 4156 7316 4159 7306
      4140 7321 4136 7369 4140 7410

PW