Severe Thunderstorm Warning 308, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
628 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010

.UPDATE...
HUMID AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL COMBINE
WITH A WESTERLY UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW TO PRODUCE SCT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT AFTER 06Z WITH 3-5 SM
BR POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z.

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
RACING TOWARD THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, ISOLATED CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. LAPS ANALYSIS FROM
21Z SHOWS THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, BACK ACROSS THE METRO AREA, THEN INTO WESTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. TBNA SHOWS BEST VELOCITIES ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OCCURRING IN ROBERTSON COUNTY, WITH VALUES OF 30-40 KTS
AROUND 2,300 FT AGL. AT THE MOMENT, NO SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS ARE
IN EFFECT FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
STRENGTHEN FURTHER GIVEN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS THEY'RE MOVING
INTO.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010/

SHORT TERM (THRU MON)...
ISO TRW DEVELOPING IN MID AFTERNOON HEAT. IT IS VERY UNSTABLE IN W
MID TN S/CAPES AROUND 4000 J/KG. MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF PCPN WITH
MCV IN W KY PRODUCING BROKEN LINE TRW. SYS EXPECTED TO BUILD SE
INTO NW MID TN BY LATE AFTERNOON.

H8 WINDS TEND TO WEAKEN W/SYS THIS EVENING. EXPECT TO GET SOME
STRONG-SEVERE STORMS NW QUAD OF MID TN THIS EVENING...TO I-65
CORRIDOR BEFORE SYS WEAKENS. SOME STORMS POSSBILE IN W MID TN S OF
I-40 AS WELL. INC CHC OF PCPN TNGT. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY SUNDAY W/MAINLY SCT RW/TRW. HEAT ADVISORY FOR ONE
MORE DAY ON TRACK. SFC HIGH PRES TRACKS ACR THE OH VLY MON AND
PUSHES A FRONT INTO MID TN. SCT RW/TRW ATTM.

LONG TERM (TUE-SAT)...
LONG-TERM MODELS CONTINUES TO SHOW SFC LOW PRES TRACKING WEST
ALONG THE GULF COAST TUE-WED THEN LIFTING NORTH. MOISTURE STREAMS
INTO THE REGION. MAIN IMPACT LOOKS TO BE CLOUDS WITH POPS IN SLGT
TO CHC RANGE ATTM.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ005>010-022>031-
056>064-075-077-093>095.

&&

21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010

TNZ011-033-151030-
PICKETT-OVERTON-
1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ALONG
WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EVEN THOUGH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
ISOLATED, SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO CALL IN ANYTHING REACHING REPORTING
CRITERIA.

TNZ005>010-022>031-056-057-059-062-151030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-BENTON-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PERRY-HICKMAN-WILLIAMSON-RUTHERFORD-
1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A DALE HOLLOW LAKE...TO SMITHVILLE...TO
HILLSBORO LINE.

MORE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV OR
BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A DALE HOLLOW LAKE...TO
SMITHVILLE...TO HILLSBORO LINE. SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL
OCCUR NEXT WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

MORE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV OR
BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EVEN THOUGH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
ISOLATED, SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO CALL IN ANYTHING REACHING REPORTING
CRITERIA.

TNZ058-060-061-063-064-075-077-093>095-151030-
LEWIS-MAURY-MARSHALL-CANNON-DE KALB-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL ALSO
CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A DALE HOLLOW
LAKE...TO SMITHVILLE...TO HILLSBORO LINE.

MORE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV OR
BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A DALE HOLLOW LAKE...TO
SMITHVILLE...TO HILLSBORO LINE. SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL
OCCUR NEXT WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

MORE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV OR
BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EVEN THOUGH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
ISOLATED, SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO CALL IN ANYTHING REACHING REPORTING
CRITERIA.

TNZ032-034-065-066-078>080-151030-
PUTNAM-FENTRESS-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-
1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EVEN THOUGH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
ISOLATED, SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO CALL IN ANYTHING REACHING REPORTING
CRITERIA.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

31

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