Severe Thunderstorm Warning 262, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
614 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST ANALYSIS PLACING SEMI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...WITH PLENTY OF HEAT...INSTABILITY AND
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS IN PLACE. STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE CLOSE TO
BNA BUT CSV VICINITY CLEAR AT THIS MOMENT. UL RIDGE STILL MAIN
FACTOR ALOFT DESPITE WEAK TROUGH AXES. MOST STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY ISO DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
SCT-NUM CONVECTION WILL AGAIN REFIRE MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH TROPICAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND REMAIN THAT WAY INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010/

DISCUSSION...WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SRN PORTION OF THE MIDSTATE
HAS ON LATEST NCEP ANALYSIS APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING SLOWLY SWD. A
DRIER NELY FLOW OVER THE NRN HALF FROM THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE OH
VALLEY HAS SUPPLIED ADDITIONAL DRY AIR WHICH LIKELY RAISED THE
CONVECTIVE TEMP AND PUT A BIT OF A DAMPER ON TSTM FORMATION. BYE
THE BYE...THE PRECIP BULLSEYE OVER THE EXTREME SE COUNTIES TONIGHT ON
THE GFS MODEL IS LIKELY AN ARTIFACT OF ITS WELL KNOWN CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK TENDENCY.

WENT LOWER ON POPS FOR TONIGHT DUE TO THE ABOVE TRENDS BUT STAYED
IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND EVEN THAT MAY BE TOO HIGH. MODELS TEND
TO MOVE THIS FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY SUPPLY A
BIT OF LIFT FOR OVERNIGHT RAINFALL.

A LIGHT SLY FLOW AT THE SFC CONTINUES FOR TUE AND WED AS ANOTHER
FRONT DROPS SWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY ON THU.
THUS A DIURNAL TREND FOR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR TUE AND WED.
FRONT PUSHES SWD INTO THE AREA LATE THU WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING
TO PUSH CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH AS DRIER AIR FLOWS INTO THE AREA.

SOUTH FLOW RETURNS ON SAT WITH DIURNALLY MODULATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. CONVECTION IS HELPED ALONG BY A WEAK
FRONT DROPPING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
534 AM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-271045-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
534 AM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. A WEAK FRONT OVER THE AREA
WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE HOT AND HUMID PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
450 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

TNZ066-262245-
CUMBERLAND-
450 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CUMBERLAND COUNTY...

AT 446 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF FAIRFIELD GLADE...OR 10
MILES NORTH OF CROSSVILLE. THIS STORM WAS  NEARLY STATIONARY AND WAS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG HIGHWAY 1127 IN THE ELMORE...RINNIE
AND COLD SPRINGS AREAS OF CUMBERLAND COUNTY. DOPPLER RAINFALL
ESTIMATES ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES DURING THE LAST HOUR.

WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BOYD