Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
257 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE FRONT WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY BACK INTO
MISSOURI AT MID-AFTERNOON WILL SAG SOUTHWARD BEFORE WASHING OUT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES ACROSS. SCATTERED
CONVECTION HAS FIRED THIS AFTERNOON IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH A
MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX LAYING ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI/NORTHWEST
ALABAMA UP INTO SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE. STEERING FLOW HAS BEEN
VERY WEAK. STORMS APPEAR TO BE PROPAGATING IN ALL DIRECTIONS
INCLUDING WEST. EXPECT WET MICROBURTS UNDERNEATH THE STRONGER
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MID STATE TONIGHT
AND WILL KEEP A LITTLE HIGHER POP OVER THE SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS
INCLUDING PLATEAU AND THE SAME FOR SATURDAY. WILL DECREASE POPS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT WILL KEEP THE HIGHER POPS BASICALLY
IN THE EAST AND ALONG PLATEAU. STILL LOOKING AT TEMPS IN THE LOW
90S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH MID 80S ON PLATEAU.

UPPER PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL NORTH HALF OF U.S. AS UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF BUILDS BACK THIS WAY BEGINNING FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK AND STRENGTHENS OVER TENNESSEE BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL HEAT
TEMPS BACK UP INTO MID AND UPPER 90S. EXPECT ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TSTMS NEXT WEEK BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RELIEF.

SINCE JUNE 1ST NASHVILLE HAS RECORDED 30 DAYS OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
70 DEGREES AND ABOVE. THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS FOR THIS SAME TIME
PERIOD IS 17 DAYS. NASHVILLE ALSO HAD 30 DAYS BACK IN 1952 AND 32
DAYS IN 1943. THE MOST EVER IS 33 DAYS BACK IN 1921. IN 1972 THERE
WERE NO DAYS WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OF 70 DEGREES OR ABOVE FROM
JUNE 1ST TO JULY 15TH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      74  91  73  92 /  40  50  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    73  91  72  92 /  40  30  20  20
CROSSVILLE     69  85  70  85 /  50  60  30  40
COLUMBIA       73  91  72  91 /  50  50  20  20
LAWRENCEBURG   73  90  72  90 /  50  60  20  40
WAVERLY        74  91  72  92 /  40  40  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

BOYD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
504 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-171000-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
504 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS LOCATIONS
ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION BY
AS EARLY AS NOON TODAY...AND LAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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