Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
306 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2010

.DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCD WITH A COLD FRONT OVER
WEST TN WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSTATE SHORTLY. ACTIVITY MAY BE
SEVERE WITH MAINLY A HAIL/WIND THREAT. MORNING SOUNDING SHOWING
GOOD SHEAR WITH MODELS PREDICTING GOOD INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE B+.
SOUNDING ALSO INDICATING GOOD 0-3 KM SHEAR...SO A TORNADO IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOCAL WRF MODEL INDICATING THAT STORMS SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE BNA AREA BY 7 PM AND OUT OF THE CSV AREA BY 9-10 PM.
STORMS WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER 6-7 PM.

REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE SCT-NMRS SHOWERS WITH SGFNT COLD
ADVECTION ENTERING THE NWRN COUNTIES AROUND 8-9 PM AND SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA TO THE PLATEAU BY 2 AM.

A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS I THE PLATEAU EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WILL PULL
EWD QUICKLY WITH THE SFC LOW ALREADY ON THE EAST COAST BY THAT TIME.
SFC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
FRI/FRI NGT WITH SLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE AREA BY SAT AM.

SLY FLOW INCREASES ON SAT PM AND SAT NGT SUPPLYING MOISTURE TO
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PLOWING ITS WAY ACROSS THE LOWER
PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY ON SAT/SAT NGT. THE LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE OH/TN VALLEYS ON SUN REACHING THE EAST COAST LATE SUN NGT.

SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA FROM SUN NGT ONWARD. MODELS DO FORM A STG
SFC LOW OVER THE LOWER GULF ON TUE AND MOVE IT NEWD ACROSS FL ON
THU PM. MODELS KEEP ALL ASSOCD PRECIP AND MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS
SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      40  55  35  69 /  80  10   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    37  55  34  68 /  80   0   0  10
CROSSVILLE     37  49  33  62 /  90  10   0   0
COLUMBIA       41  56  37  69 /  70  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   41  56  37  68 /  60   0   0  10
WAVERLY        38  56  35  69 /  70   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

JLM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
150 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2010

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-261030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
150 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...CREATING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BECOME
STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EVEN THOUGH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
ISOLATED, SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO CALL IN ANYTHING REACHING REPORTING
CRITERIA.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

04

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
526 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2010

TNZ094-095-252300-
GILES-LAWRENCE-
526 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILES AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES...

AT 524 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF MOUNT PLEASANT TO LEXINGTON...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13
MILES WEST OF LEWISBURG TO 18 MILES SOUTH OF LAWRENCEBURG...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  PULASKI BY 540 PM CDT.

WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH AND DIME SIZED HAIL ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

04

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
534 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     HAIL             FAIRVIEW                35.98N 87.12W
03/25/2010  E0.25 INCH       WILLIAMSON         TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED HAIL WAS STARTING TO COVER THE GROUND.

&&

STEIGERWALDT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
536 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2010

TNZ025>027-057>060-252300-
CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-DICKSON-HICKMAN-LEWIS-MAURY-WILLIAMSON-
536 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEATHAM...DAVIDSON...DICKSON...
HICKMAN...LEWIS...MAURY AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES...

AT 530 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM KINGSTON SPRINGS TO
6 MILES NORTH OF MOUNT PLEASANT...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12
MILES SOUTH OF ASHLAND CITY TO 10 MILES WEST OF COLUMBIA...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  PEGRAM BY 540 PM CDT.
  COLUMBIA BY 545 PM CDT.
  SPRING HILL BY 555 PM CDT.
  FOREST HILLS BY 600 PM CDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

04

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