Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
238 PM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

.DISCUSSION...
MAJOR THEMES THIS PACKAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN AVERAGE
POSSIBILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... AND COLD
FRONT WITH RELIEF FROM THE MUGGY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AIR MASS IS UNSTABLE AND VERY
MOIST WHILE KBNA 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED PWAT OF OVER 2 INCHES. SCATTERED
STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE.
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXISTS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE BUT FAVORABLE STORM SPEED... 20 TO 25 MPH... SHOULD HELP
KEEP THINGS IN CHECK. EXPECT STORMS TO DIMINISH MID/LATE EVENING
BUT WILL KEEP POPS THRU THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WILL GO WITH CHC TO LIKELY POPS AGAIN THURSDAY
AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE UNSTABLE AND EXTREMELY MOIST. WEAK
COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MO/IL/IN TODAY IS EXPECTED TO STALL
NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER... AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY OVER EAST
TX WILL APPROACH TN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND AID LIFT. GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL INCREASE TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES BUT WILL
SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE. POPS WILL DROP OFF AGAIN IN THE
EVENING BUT INCREASE TO CHC CATEGORY AREAWIDE FRIDAY AS THAT UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES EVEN CLOSER TO TN WITH CONTINUED RICH HUMIDITY.
HEAT INDEX WILL INCREASE BY FRIDAY AS TEMPS CREEP INTO THE LOWER
90S WITH DAYTIME DEW POINTS AROUND 70.

SAT/SUN...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM TN AND SOUTHERN H5
RIDGE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL REDUCE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND BUT NOT END THEM ALTOGETHER...AND WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS. MAIN STORY THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S AND HIGH
HUMIDITY. SPECIAL WEATHER STMT WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING TO
HIGHLIGHT HEAT THREAT.

RELIEF WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES... AND SENDS A COLD FRONT PLUNGING INTO THE SE
U.S. FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN MIDDLE TN ON MONDAY SO EXPECT MORE
STORMS. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WITH NORTH WINDS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      71  89  72  91 /  30  60  20  40
CLARKSVILLE    69  88  70  89 /  30  50  20  40
CROSSVILLE     69  82  66  86 /  40  50  20  40
COLUMBIA       72  90  72  92 /  30  50  20  30
LAWRENCEBURG   72  89  71  91 /  30  50  30  30
WAVERLY        71  89  71  90 /  30  50  20  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

LV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
735 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-101130-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
735 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY
AND POSSIBLY TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...
MAINLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
VERY MOIST THUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HELP SET OFF SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...SOME MAY EVEN BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE LOCALLY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT MAINLY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EVEN THOUGH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
ISOLATED, SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO CALL IN ANYTHING REACHING REPORTING
CRITERIA.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1103 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-101815-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...CAMDEN...ERIN...
WAVERLY...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...
MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE...
LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...
FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...
WOODBURY...SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...SHELBYVILLE...
TULLAHOMA...MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...ALTAMONT...SPENCER...
WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI
1103 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

...EXTREME CAUTION ADVISED FOR HEAT AND HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND...

NUMEROUS OUTDOOR EVENTS WILL BE TAKING PLACE ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS WEEKEND. THOSE ORGANIZING AND PARTICIPATING IN
THESE EVENTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HEAT STRESS.

HIGHS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
HIGH...AND THIS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN MORE UNCOMFORTABLE. THE
HEAT INDEX EACH AFTERNOON WILL PUSH NEAR 100.

HERE ARE SOME SUGGESTIONS FOR THOSE WHO WILL BE OUTDOORS THIS
WEEKEND...

DRINK PLENTY OF NON ALCOHOLIC FLUIDS.

WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING.

TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE AND TRY TO AVOID SUNBURN.

MORE INFORMATION ABOUT HEAT SAFETY CAN BE FOUND AT

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NASHVILLE

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A
RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHTNING IS A DANGER WITH ALL
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS. IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH...SEEK SHELTER. EVENT ORGANIZERS
SHOULD HAVE PLANS IN PLACE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER.

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
246 PM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

TNZ028-062>064-092015-
CANNON-DEKALB-RUTHERFORD-WILSON-
246 PM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CANNON...DEKALB...RUTHERFORD AND
WILSON COUNTIES...

AT 238 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR WALTERHILL AND ANOTHER ABOUT 10 MILES EAST
OF WALTERHILL...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...NORTHERN CANNON...NORTHWESTERN
DEKALB AND SOUTHEASTERN WILSON COUNTIES...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HALF INCH SIZE
HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

13