Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
346 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWESTWARD OUT OF
KENTUCKY AND PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE MID STATE. WV LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW IN SOUTHWESTERN
KENTUCKY, KEEPING A GOOD FLOW OF MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE MID STATE. WHEREVER THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED THIS AFTERNOON, THEY
HAVE RAPIDLY PROLIFERATED IN NUMBER, LEADING TO COMPETITION AMONG
THE CELLS AND HELPING TO KEEP SEVERE THREAT VERY LOCALIZED. THERE
HAVE BEEN PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTS AND ONE REPORT OF A DOWNED TREE IN
SOUTHEAST COFFEE COUNTY. OTHERWISE, IT'S BEEN THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
THAT HAVE BEEN MOST NOTABLE (OWING, IN LARGE PART, TO THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF STORMS--ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-65). DOPPLER-
ESTIMATED 3-HR RAINFALL SHOWS ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
OVER EASTERN AREAS.

STABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE THIS EVENING SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY
A STEADY DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WITH MOST LINGERING
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS PROBABLY FOCUSING IN
SOUTHWESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO PULL IN
THAT DIRECTION.

STILL EXPECT UPPER LOW TO PULL SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE GULF COASTAL
AREA BY LATE SATURDAY, WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE BECOMING CONFINED TO
OUR SOUTHERN-MOST COUNTIES. AFTER THAT, EXPECT LOW TO PULL
EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING DEEPEST MOISTURE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. WE MAY BE ABLE TO EEK OUT A REASONABLY NICE
MEMORIAL DAY ON MONDAY, WITH NO GOOD FOCUS FOR STORMS PRESENT IN
OUR AREA, AND THE EXPECTATION FOR MAINLY JUST TYPICAL SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...AFTER SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES LOW WEAKENS OVER THE
GA-FL AREA TUESDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD SCOOT EASTWARD IN WAVY
ZONAL FLOW AND INCREASE CHANCE FOR RAIN ONCE AGAIN. THUS,
POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HANGS AROUND INTO TUESDAY.
BELIEVE WE SHOULD SEE A GENERAL DECREASE IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SENDING DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING BACK
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, INCREASING POPS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      66  85  67  86 /  20  50  20  50
CLARKSVILLE    65  85  65  87 /  20  40  20  40
CROSSVILLE     63  82  62  82 /  20  50  20  50
COLUMBIA       66  85  67  85 /  20  60  30  60
LAWRENCEBURG   66  84  66  85 /  40  60  30  60
WAVERLY        66  84  66  86 /  20  50  20  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1127 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-291630-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
1127 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. IN ADDITION... STEERING CURRENTS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA, WHICH MEANS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE SLOW-MOVING AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
PONDING OF WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A MAINSTAY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. MORE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...SOME WITH STRONG
WINDS...HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
418 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010

TNZ024-025-057-282215-
DICKSON-HICKMAN-HUMPHREYS-
418 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DICKSON...HICKMAN AND HUMPHREYS
COUNTIES...

AT 408 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DICKSON...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN HUMPHREYS...NORTHERN HICKMAN AND SOUTHERN DICKSON
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF DICKSON AND BURNS...SHOULD MONITOR
THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

13