Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1154 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR ACROSS MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN SPEED WITH GUSTINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
STORM OR TWO COULD BECOME SEVERE AROUND BNA TERMINAL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT IFR CONDITONS AT BOTH
BNA AND CSV AT 06Z DUE TO CEILINGS.

BOYD
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
BEGINNING TO SEE NEW CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE IN
SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TN AROUND PERRY COUNTY AT 17Z. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ACROSS WESTERN MID TN ARE CLOSE TO 8 DEGS/KM AT 17Z AND RUC
HAS SWEAT INDEX > 400 OVER A GOOD PART OF MID STATE AT 18Z. IF STORMS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THEY WILL LIKEY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
DOWNBURST WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

BOYD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010/

UPDATE...
CWA HAS BECOME PRETTY MUCH RAIN-FREE FOR TIME BEING. LOOKING TO
OUR W WHERE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED CNTRL AR NEAR COLD CORE UPPER LOW.
THIS WILL BE MOVING E ALL DAY INTO THIS EVE WITH A CHANCE FOR
SEVERE...MAINLY HAILERS. WILL UPDATE ZONES/GRIDS.

17/MAG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING CLOSED SFC/LL LOWS ACROSS OK/AR...WITH COLD
FRONT DOWN INTO EAST TX AND STATIONARY BOUNDARY HANGING JUST NORTH
OF THE CWA. ADDITIONALLY...SECONDARY SFC TROUGH AXIS WORKING ACROSS
CENTRAL MS/AL IN VICINITY OF H8 BOUNDARY. CLOSED H5 LOW OVER THE
OK PANHANDLE AREA EXTENDING TROUGH AXIS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG SOUTHERN FEATURES.

BRUNT OF STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS SFC/UPPER LOWS MOVE
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND JUST NORTH BY 00Z. THIS WILL LIFT MORE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/LL-ML JET DYNAMICS INTO THE
IMMEDIATE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...THUS EXPECT MASS OF CONVECTION
DOWN TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WORK DIRECTLY ACROSS. INSTABILITY ON NEW
RUNS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN PREVIOUS BUT ISOLATED SEVERE STILL IN
PLAY... ESPECIALLY SOUTH. FLOODING MAYBE ANOTHER CONCERN BUT WITH
PRETTY LOW TOTALS SO FAR AND ROUGHLY ANOTHER 1 INCH OR SO EXPECTED
AREA-WIDE... IT SHOULD BE MINIMAL LOOKING AT LATEST GUIDANCE.

CONVECTION TAPERS OFF TONIGHT AS CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER
EAST AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PCPN TO BECOME
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE TONIGHT...WITH MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
LINGERING ON THE PLATEAU EARLY FRI.

UPPER RIDGE/SHOT OF DRY AIR MOVE IN FRI BUT FAST MOVER ALREADY EAST
BY 12Z SAT. EYES THEN TURN WEST AS NEXT STORM SYSTEM ALREADY IN
THE MS RIVER VALLEY AT THAT TIME...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY BRING A TSTORM
OR TWO TO THE EXTREME WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. MAIN AFFECTS
HOWEVER EXPECTED SAT NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE WORKS ACROSS WITH PRE-
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/ML STREAK AND CONTINUES INTO SUN AS MAIN FRONT
CROSSES AND SPOKE OF SHARP UPPER TROUGH NEARS.

COOL DOWN THEN COMES FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES SUN NIGHT-
MON NIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE MID-WEST UP INTO CANADA. POOLS
OF MOISTURE IN BASES EXPECTED TO LEAVE GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AS
WELL AS POSSIBLY BRING A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THAT PERIOD.

ML/UL FLOW THEN FLATTENS PUSHING STORM TRACK NORTH...LEAVING THE
CWA DRY TUE-WED.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
906 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-221130-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DEKALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
906 AM CST THU JAN 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THEY WILL BE
MOST FAVORABLE IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

17/MAG

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
129 PM CST THU JAN 21 2010

TNZ008-027-028-062-212000-
DAVIDSON-RUTHERFORD-SUMNER-WILSON-
129 PM CST THU JAN 21 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DAVIDSON...RUTHERFORD...SUMNER
AND WILSON COUNTIES...

AT 127 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LA VERGNE...OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MURFREESBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HALF INCH SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

BOYD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
131 PM CST THU JAN 21 2010

TNZ075-077-212000-
BEDFORD-COFFEE-
131 PM CST THU JAN 21 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BEDFORD AND COFFEE COUNTIES...

AT 127 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LYNCHBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HALF INCH SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

BOYD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
153 PM CST THU JAN 21 2010

TNZ008-009-028>030-212100-
MACON-SMITH-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-WILSON-
153 PM CST THU JAN 21 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MACON...SMITH...SUMNER...
TROUSDALE AND WILSON COUNTIES...

AT 146 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEBANON...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

HALF INCH SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

BOYD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
209 PM CST THU JAN 21 2010

TNZ009-010-028>030-212045-
CLAY-MACON-SMITH-TROUSDALE-WILSON-
209 PM CST THU JAN 21 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 245 PM CST...FOR
CLAY...MACON...SMITH...TROUSDALE AND WILSON COUNTIES...

AT 205 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF LEBANON...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

HALF INCH SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

BOYD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
217 PM CST THU JAN 21 2010

TNZ059>061-095-212045-
GILES-MARSHALL-MAURY-WILLIAMSON-
217 PM CST THU JAN 21 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 245 PM CST...FOR
GILES...MARSHALL...MAURY AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES...

AT 210 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF MOUNT PLEASANT...OR 13 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

BOYD