Tornado Warning 14, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
241 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL REVOLVE AROUND SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNON AND TONIGHT.

COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION AS THERE IS OUTFLOW RELATED TO THE
STORMS OVR SD...AND SFC COLD FNT SAGS INTO THE CWA VICINITY
KOFK...MEANWHILE...WARMER/UNSTABLE AIR HAS LIFTED INTO NEB AS
WELL WITH SFC LOW PRES FM KOFK TOWARD KLBF AND KHLC KS. THE SOUTH
FLOW HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...WITH TEMPS
INCREASING IN THE 80S AND 90S AND DEWPOINTS INCREASING IN THE UPPER
60S. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED IN THE VCNTY OF KLCG/KOFK/KBVN IN THE
AREA OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SUNSHINE IS ON THE INCREASE ACRS
SRN NEB WITH THE CONVECTION MORE FOCUSED OVR NW IA INTO NRN AND
ECNTRL NEB. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AND REMAIN IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH CATEGORY AS DEEP LAYER 0-6KM
SHEAR INCREASES TO 35 TO 50KTS. MEANWHILE...0-1KM HELICITY
INCREASES TO 150M2/S2. TWO AREAS OF CONCERN...ALONG THE BOUNDARY
TO THE NORTH AND THEN ALSO FARTHER SOUTH DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASING OVR KS. HAVE SVR AND TOR WATCHES IN EFFECT EXPECT SVR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY/INCREASING LOW LEVEL
AND DEEP LYR SHEAR...TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP. HAVE FOCUSED HIGHEST
POPS IN THE NORTH AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. FARTHER
SOUTH AWAY FM THE BOUNDARY...BUT IN THE VICINITY THERE IS LESS
CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE AND EXACTLY WHERE THE STORMS WILL IGNITE.
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THIS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS SHIFTING THE
ORGANIZED THREAT OF SVR STORMS FM ERN NEB AND WRN IA FARTHER EAST
INTO IA...HOWEVER...SINCE THE FRONT WILL STILL LIE IN SE
NEB...THIS AREA COULD ALSO MAINTAIN STORMS OVERNIGHT.

DEPENDING ON THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...A SFC BOUNDARY MAY LINGER
ACRS SE NEB INTO SW IA...AND MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM WED. A SHORTWAVE TROF OVR WRN NEB WILL PUSH ACRS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. RESIDUAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND UVV WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROF FARTHER NORTH MAY RESULT IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSRA
NORTH OF THE FRONT...THUS LEFT THE CHC IN FOR RAIN INTO WED AND
EARLY WED EVENING. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FOR WED NIGHT..HOWEVER
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF WILL DRAG A FRONT INTO THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT/FRI.

IN THE LONGER TERM...FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF
TRACKING ACRS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN PLAINS WILL FOCUS SOUTH FLOW
ACRS THE PLNS TOWARD A FNT OVR SD. AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST...THE
ORGANIZED WX SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...HOWEVER THE FRONT MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM FOR THE CWA.
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGER PRECIP SAT MORNING...THEN THIS FEATURE
SHIFTS EAST FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT. THE GFS IS HINTING THAT THERE
COULD BE ANOTHER RIPPLE IN THE NW FLOW...SO WILL NEED TO SEE IF
THIS HOLDS IN FUTURE RUNS BEFORE ADDING TO THE FCST. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS PATTERN REPEATS ITSELF WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING AND SPREADS EASTWARD BOTH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE BY THE TIME THE STORMS MOVE
EAST...INCLUDED EITHER ISOLATED OR SCT COVERAGE FOR DAYS 6 AND 7.
WITH THE NW FLOW...TEMPS ARE COOLER. HIGHS SAT/SUN IN THE UPR 70S
LOWER 80S AND IN THE 70S MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK

18Z TAFS
FIRST LINE OF TSRA LIFTING NORTH WILL AFFECT KOFK EARLY ON...THEN
AS THE SFC FNT SAG SOUTH...TSRA EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
FROM MID AFTERNOON ON AT KOFK AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD TO KOMA AND
KLNK THRU THE EVENING. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THE
TSRA. WILL NEED TO ADJUST TAFS AS INDIVIDUAL STORMS WITH HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS DEVELOP. SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN WITH MVFR VSBYS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

ZAPOTOCNY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
254 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-021000-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
254 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY ALONG A LINE
FROM ALBION TO ONAWA AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTING SOUTHEAST MERGES
WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH FROM MORNING CONVECTION.
THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST...REACHING A SEWARD
TO OMAHA AND COUNCIL BLUFFS LINE BETWEEN 7 PM AND 9 PM. THIS LINE
SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

GIVEN HIGH INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER
A LAYER OF WARM AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY KEEP A CAP ON
THOSE STORMS MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY POSSIBLY INHIBIT
STORM FORMATION ENTIRELY. IF STORMS HAPPEN TO BREAK THE
CAP...AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 COULD SEE ACTIVITY AT
JUST ABOUT ANY TIME AFTER 5 OR 6 PM. THESE STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY
QUICKLY GIVEN EXTREME INSTABILITY...AND WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT SHEAR
FOR THE THREAT OF TORNADOES.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT
DRIFTS SOUTHEAST. MUCH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
MOVING EAST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1204 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 AM     HAIL             1 SW TOBIAS             40.41N 97.35W
06/01/2010  E1.75 INCH       SALINE             NE   PUBLIC

&&

VDEWALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
304 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             4 SE STANTON            41.91N 97.17W
06/01/2010  E1.75 INCH       STANTON            NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

CZAPOTOC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
307 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             6 S STANTON             41.86N 97.22W
06/01/2010  E1.75 INCH       STANTON            NE   STORM CHASER

&&

CZAPOTOC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
337 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TORNADO          9 WSW WEST POINT        41.79N 96.87W
06/01/2010                   CUMING             NE   STORM CHASER

            TORNADO ON THE GROUND FOR FIVE MINUTES 6 NORTHWEST OF
            DODGE AND 9 WEST SOUTHWEST OF WEST POINT.

&&

CZAPOTOC

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