Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
235 PM CDT MON APR 5 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
AREA OF CONVECTION THAT HAD SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA OUT OF
KANSAS LATE IN THE MORNING WAS OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF IOWA AT 18Z
WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI. LATEST MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN
COLORADO TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AND LIFT WARM FRONT SLOWLY
NORTH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. PRIMARY CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FOCUS NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WHERE
NOSE OF LLJ SETS UP. NONETHELESS HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS
PIVOTS SOUTH DURING THIS TIME. APPEARS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED ACROSS AREA WITH LARGE HAIL PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT TRICKY AS DRY SLOT SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PART OF THE CWA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WITH MAIN FOCUS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. UPPER WAVE THEN COMES INTO PLAY LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH FASTER TREND OF THE GFS PREFERRED IN
MOVING SYSTEM OUT ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
EXTENDED PORTION STILL LOOKING GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER AS RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVER EAST HALF OF THE NATION IN ADVANCE OF NEXT WAVE
COMING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS LATE IN THE PERIOD. I

&&

.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK

18Z TAFS

SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT WAS LIFTING SLOWLY N WAS NEAR KCNK AT
05/18Z.  FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE SERN CORNER OF NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING AND LIFT TO NEAR OMAHA TUESDAY MORNING.  CIGS WERE
LOWERING AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AND GENERALLY SHOULD BE IN MVFR CATEGORY
AT TAF SITES MUCH OF THE FORECAST PD...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD BE ABOVE
3000 FT FOR A WHILE THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY FROM KOFK TO KOMA.  CIGS
WILL LIKELY LIFT SOUTH OF WARM FRONT NEAR KOMA/KLNK...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD 06/15-18Z.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED TSTMS WL REDEVELOP
OR MOVE INTO REGION TNGT WITH 06/05-10Z MOST LIKELY TIME PD.
PROB30S WERE INCLUDED AT TAF SITES DURING THAT TIME.  ANY STORM
TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS ALTHOUGH
CHCS AT TAF SITES SEEMED TO REMOTE TO CARRY JUST YET.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

FOBERT/CHERMOK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
530 PM CDT MON APR 5 2010

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-061230-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
530 PM CDT MON APR 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.
IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP THIS EVENING IN FAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...THEY WOULD CARRY A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OTHERWISE...MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SMALL HAIL IN THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS A SLOW-MOVING
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
AROUND FAIRBURY NEBRASKA TO AROUND HARLAN IOWA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

MAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1143 PM CDT MON APR 5 2010

IAZ056-069-060515-
POTTAWATTAMIE IA-SHELBY IA-
1143 PM CDT MON APR 5 2010

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHEASTERN POTTAWATTAMIE AND
SOUTHERN SHELBY COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

AT 1138 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MINDEN...OR 26 MILES EAST OF
OMAHA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  SHELBY...
  AVOCA...
  WALNUT...
  HARLAN...
  ELK HORN...
  HANCOCK...
  TENNANT...
  NISHNA BEND RECREATION AREA...
  PRAIRIE ROSE STATE PARK...
  ELK HORN CREEK RECREATION AREA...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

MAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1205 AM CDT TUE APR 6 2010

IAZ056-060545-
SHELBY IA-
1205 AM CDT TUE APR 6 2010

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR EASTERN SHELBY COUNTY UNTIL 1245 AM
CDT...

AT 1202 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR IRWIN...OR 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF
OMAHA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY.

MAYES

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