Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
415 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER THIS EVENING WITH A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 11PM.

A WEST TO EAST SFC FNT WAS DRAPED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WITH WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. SFC BASED
INSTABILITY WAS AROUND 3000J/KG AND 50 TO 55KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
HAVE SEVERAL WARNINGS OUT...SO WILL KEEP THIS DISCUSSION SHORT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE
H85 WINDS INCREASE AND THE SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY MORNING
WITH ONE OF THE FRONTS SAGGING INTO KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY
NIGHT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL AGAIN STRENGTHEN WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING WED
AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROF. THE ORGANIZED PRECIP WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE DAKOTAS AND EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS WED AND WED
NIGHT WITH THE SFC FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

DUE TO THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THIS WEATHER PATTERN IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

THE STORMS WILL MOVE OUT LATER WED NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING
IN THUR.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE SFC HIGH PRES WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING SOUTH FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO
THE ZONAL FLOW ACRS THE NRN PLAINS...THE SFC FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH...THEN BACK NORTH AGAIN...AND THE BACK SOUTH AGAIN. WHEN THE
FRONT MEANDERS BACK AND FORTH...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM UP SOUTH OF THE FRONT INTO THE 80S. THE LONG RANGE
MODELS CONTINUES TO HAVE LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES. TODAY/S RUNS ARE
FARTHER NORTH...THUS MORE TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SFC FRONT IN THE AREA AND A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTRIBUTE
SCT TSRA. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE
STORMS TO CONTINUE THRU THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY AT KLNK AND KOMA WITH
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH THE TSRA. BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION MVFR
CIGS WILL FILL IN...WITH VFR CIGS AFT 15Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

ZAPOTOCNY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1128 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2010

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-140630-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
1128 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE LARGE HAIL...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE.

WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL START TO RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY TONIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG OR NORTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 80 VICINITY. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THE MOVE AND
DEVELOP EAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS LIKELY TO INCLUDE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY HAIL A HALF INCH OR GREATER...
AND ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
454 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     HAIL             WAHOO                   41.22N 96.62W
09/13/2010  E1.75 INCH       SAUNDERS           NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CZAPOTOC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
456 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             5 N WAHOO               41.29N 96.62W
09/13/2010  E1.75 INCH       SAUNDERS           NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CZAPOTOC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
457 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2010

NEZ088-089-132245-
GAGE NE-JEFFERSON NE-
457 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2010

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR JEFFERSON AND SOUTHWESTERN GAGE
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 452 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER JEFFERSON COUNTY AND WERE MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  DILLER...ODELL...ENDICOTT...JANSEN...
  ROCK CREEK STATION STATE HISTORICAL PARK...
  STEELE CITY...
  HARBINE...

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
459 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0457 PM     HAIL             WAHOO                   41.22N 96.62W
09/13/2010  M2.00 INCH       SAUNDERS           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMALL LIMBS DOWN.

&&

VDEWALD