Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
327 PM CDT WED SEP 1 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

AT 20Z...THE SFC FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA HAS REORGANIZED
INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRES NORTH OF LNK WITH A FNT BTWN KFET AND LNK.
PRES FALL OF MORE THAN 4MB IN THE LAST THREE HOURS HAVE BEEN NOTED
WITH THIS FEATURE.  MEANWHILE THE PREFRONTAL TROF WAS OVER THE WRN
PLAINS AND IS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER WRN SD.  THE INITIAL
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN ERN NEB/SW IA AND ALSO OVER WRN NEBRASKA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF.  INITIALLY INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED DUE TO LINGER CLOUDS TODAY AND COOLER TEMPS.  TONIGHT...THE
H85 FLOW INITIALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST BECOMES MORE SOUTH AND
INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS MID LEVEL FLOW.  STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES...INCREASING INSTABILITY...AND 40-50KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD ARE TIMING THE END OF PCPN
ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PCPN CHANCES
RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING SEWD OUT OF SERN NE AND SWRN IA BY
MID MORNING THURSDAY. SCT SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY MAY LINGER FOR
A WHILE IN THE MORNING...BUT THE AFTN SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY. LEFT A
SLIGHT CHANCE GOING CLOSE TO THE KS AND MO BORDERS...BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN WILL FEATURE A RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE ROCKIES FRIDAY...GRADUALLY EXPANDING INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY.
OUR AREA SHOULD BE DRY OR MAINLY DRY IN THAT PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
HINTS OF LIGHT PCPN WITH THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LEFT POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT
AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL START INCREASING SUNDAY...BUT
WILL BE STRONGER AND MORE GUSTY MONDAY. 500 MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST OF OUR AREA MONDAY...AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
PUTS US IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND POTENTIALLY A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS TAPPED.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK

18Z TAFS

A SMALL SCALE WEATHER FEATURE MOVING ACRS ERN NEB AT MID AFTERNOON
PRODUCED 3-4MB PRES FALLS IN THE LAST THREE HRS ALONG WITH PATCHY
MVFR CIGS IN A SMALL AREA BTWN KOMA TO KLNK.  THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME ISOLD -SHRA.  HAVE
SOME SHOWERS MENTINED WITH A CB...AND DID NOT MENTION THUNDER DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF LOCATION OF -TSRA. VRB WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS FROM 15
TO 25KTS. OVERNIGHT THETA-E ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
TIMING AND LOCATION OF ACTUAL PRECIP AREAS WILL BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN
WITH BROAD LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SO HESITANT TO INCLUDE
TSRA MENTION EXCEPT WITH BEST LIFT. PATCHY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH
SHOWERS AND TSRA OVERNIGHT.  CDFNT MOVES THRU THE TAF SITES AROUND
12Z AT KOFK AND 15-18Z AT KOMA/KLNK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM....MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
451 PM CDT WED SEP 1 2010

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-021100-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
451 PM CDT WED SEP 1 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
DAKOTAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
912 PM CDT WED SEP 01 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             3 SE PANAMA             40.57N 96.47W
09/01/2010  E0.88 INCH       LANCASTER          NE   PUBLIC

&&

JEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
940 PM CDT WED SEP 01 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     HAIL             4 W LORTON VILLAGE      40.60N 96.10W
09/01/2010  E1.00 INCH       OTOE               NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

DEE