High Surf Advisory 3, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
425 PM PST SUN JAN 17 2010

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:33 PM PST SUNDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES
TO BE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND WIND THIS WEEK.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WET AND WINDY STORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING ON
SHORE SPREADING MODERATE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA AT THIS TIME. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION APPROACHING THE MONTEREY PENINSULA AT THIS TIME. SO
FAR 12 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE RANGED FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS
THE EAST BAY INLAND VALLEYS TO JUST OVER 1.5 INCHES IN THE SANTA
LUCIAS. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

ON MONDAY A STRONGER SYSTEM IS SLATED TO AFFECT THE DISTRICT WITH
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND PRECIPITATION. THIS FRONT CAN BE SEEN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 39N/144W BARRELING TOWARDS THE WEST COAST.
LATEST QPF ESTIMATES THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY GIVE THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
2-3 INCHES WITH AN INCH OR MORE ELSEWHERE. WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AFTER 15Z MONDAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS PLANNED FOR ALL COASTAL AREAS OF
OUR CWA AND ALL HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS...AND ALL INLAND VALLEY
LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS.

ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM MOVES TO THE COAST ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
WIND AND RAIN. AT THIS TIME WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...BUT NOT AS STRONG
AS MONDAYS SYSTEM. THE THIRD IN THE SERIES OF STORMS WILL ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP LOW MOVES TO WEST OF THE OR/CA BORDER. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND POSSIBILITY DAMAGING WINDS
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY.

A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL WILL CONTINUE THE PERIODS OF RAIN RIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BREAK IN
THE RAIN ON SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM MOVES TO THE
COAST ON SUNDAY.

WITH THE GROUND BECOMING SATURATED THERE IS THE STRONG POSSIBILITY OF
FLOODING THIS WEEK. STRONG WINDS COULD CAUSE DOWNED TREES AND POWER
LINES. ALL OF THIS IS CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTED WITH A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
(SFOESFMTR OR FGUS76 KMTR)...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...WIND
ADVISORY (SFONPWMTR WWUS76 KMTR)...AND MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
(SFOMWSMTR OR FZUS76 KMTR).

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:25 PM SUNDAY...THE FIRST OF THE SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS COMING
WEEK PASSED THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS WE
TRANSITION TO THE NEXT SYSTEM IN LINE. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AROUND 12Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING RAIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL COAST.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT THEN INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER 12Z EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 KT EXPECTED BETWEEN 12Z MONDAY AND 02Z TUESDAY. AN AIRPORT
WEATHER WARNING FOR KSFO WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR WINDS. OFF AND ON
RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MRY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR
TONIGHT AS CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER THIS EVENING. ON AND OFF SHOWERS
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH RAIN DEVELOPING EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER 12Z EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 2:50 PM SUNDAY..STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL
BE THE STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH GALE FORCE CONDITIONS LIKELY
TOMORROW. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LARGE SWELLS LATER IN THE
WEEK IN EXCESS OF 20 TO 25 FEET.  LARGE WAVES ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT
MANY LOCAL BEACHES WHICH COULD LEAD TO BEACH EROSION...RIP
CURRENTS...AND DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PLEASE SEE SFOMWSMTR FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAY
            .GALE...PT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT 10-60 NM AND PT
                    ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
            .SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-60 NM AND
                   PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
            .WIND ADVISORY...MONDAY...FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE
                             NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS.

PUBLIC FORECAST: SSA
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

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