Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

113 
WGUS56 KMTR 201908
FFWMTR
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1108 AM PST WED JAN 20 2010

CAC097-201917-
/O.EXP.KMTR.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100120T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SONOMA CA-
1108 AM PST WED JAN 20 2010

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR SONOMA COUNTY...

THE INITIAL FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE WILLOW BROOK CREEK IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE CITY OF PETALUMA HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AND A 
NEW FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CONTINUED FLOODING IN 
THE AREA.

LAT...LON 3828 12268 3828 12264 3827 12258 3820 12260
      3822 12269

$$

WJK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
250 AM PST WED JAN 20 2010

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:50 AM PST WEDNESDAY...SHORT TERM ISSUE INVOLVES
BRACING FOR THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DUE TO SLAM ONTO THE COAST BEFORE
DAWN. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS SLATED FOR THURSDAY WITH QUIETER WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT WAVE JUST OFFSHORE WITH
LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM OCCURRING FROM ABOUT SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY NORTHWARD. CRUDE EXTRAPOLATION OF THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE
ON SATELLITE LOOPS BRINGS THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE BAY
AREA BY 15Z...OR 7 AM. THIS IS PROBABLY A BIT TOO FAST...BUT THE
HEAVIER RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BAND WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH DURING RUSH HOUR...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN
ADDITION TO THE RAINS...STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM AND WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED
FOR COASTAL AND MOUNTAIN AREAS AS WELL AS INLAND VALLEYS EXCEPT FOR
IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO EASE AFTER
NOON...AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN GENERAL CAN BE ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IF NOT
LIKELY IN THE UNSTABLE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

SPECIFICS TO TODAY'S FRONT:  SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE
COLD FRONT WILL REACH 20 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE SANTA CLARA AND SALINAS VALLEYS.
ADDITIONALLY...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM SYSTEM
WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANOTHER FEATURE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE HIGH SURF RANGING FROM
20 TO 30 FEET POSSIBLY LARGER AT FAVORED SPOTS. THIS HIGH SURF
COMBINED WITH RUN OFF WILL CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING AND ADDITIONAL
BEACH EROSION.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE STATE ON THURSDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. RIGHT
NOW THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PARTICULARLY IMPACT AREAS FROM ABOUT
BIG SUR SOUTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS THERE AND INTO THE LA
BASIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. QPF ESTIMATES FOR OUR DISTRICT GIVE 1-3
INCHES IN THE SANTA LUCIAS...UP TO AN INCH OR SO IN THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS...AND A HALF INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

SHOWER CHANCES TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS IN AN
UNSTABLE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. BY SATURDAY...THOUGH...HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE STATE FOR A RESPITE.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS ONE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN THE
CURRENT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:00 PM TUESDAY...A BRIEF REPRIEVE IS ANTICIPATED
BETWEEN SYSTEMS TONIGHT. HOWEVER HEAVY DOWN POURS AND STRONG WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME BETWEEN 09Z-12Z EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE NEXT STORM OF THE SERIES MOVE INTO THE REGION. VARIABLE CIGS AND
VSBY THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE TRANSITION BETWEEN STORMS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES
AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS DURING THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. VARIABLE CIGS
AND VSBY THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE TRANSITION BETWEEN STORMS.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR AS KSFO.

MRY BAY AREA TERMINALS...A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN...HEAVY AT
TIMES AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING. VARIABLE CIGS AND
VSBY THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE TRANSITION BETWEEN STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:00 PM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BEFORE RE-INTENSIFYING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STORMS SLATED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE WEDNESDAY STORM HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF PRODUCING STORM
FORCES WINDS OF 50 KT OVER THE WATERS. A STORM WARNING GOES INTO
EFFECT AT 7 AM PST WEDNESDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS...SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 FEET
TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 25-27 FEET WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
LOCAL BEACHES COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION...RIP CURRENTS...
AND COASTAL FLOODING. A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
COASTAL AREAS FROM SONOMA COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH MONTEREY COUNTY. IN
ADDITION...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THESE SAME
AREAS AND IS VALID FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PLEASE SEE SFOCFWMTR WHUS46 KMTR FOR MORE INFORMATION.

TIDE INFORMATION FOR THE GOLDEN GATE...
WEDS MORNING     2:43 AM 5.3 FT
WEDS AFTERNOON   2:18 PM 4.4 FT
THURS MORNING    3:15 AM 5.4 FT
THURS AFTERNOON  3:19 PM 3.9 FT
&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDA...SCA ALL WATERS TONIGHT WITH STORM WARNINGS WEDS.
             SCA...SAN FRANCISCO BAR FOR ROUGH BAR
             HIGH SURF WARNING...ENTIRE COAST.
             COASTAL FLOOD WARNING...ENTIRE COAST.
     .HIGH WIND WARNING...TIL 12 NOON FOR COAST AND SF
                          BAY SHORELINE.
     .WIND ADV...EVERYWHERE ELSE TIL 12 NOON EXCEPT N AND E BAY
                 VALLEYS.

PUBLIC FORECAST: SSA
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
400 AM PST WED JAN 20 2010

CAZ006-505-509-529-530-210200-
SAN FRANCISCO-
COASTAL NORTH BAY...INCLUDING POINT REYES NATIONAL SEASHORE-
SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA COAST-
SOUTHERN MONTEREY BAY AND BIG SUR COAST-NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY-
400 AM PST WED JAN 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA AND MONTEREY BAY AREA.

.DAY ONE...WEDNESDAY

MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

LARGE OCEAN SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COAST. A HIGH SURF
WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

*  HIGH SURF WARNING AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCH...SEE SFOCFWMTR

STRONG WINDS WILL RAMP UP AHEAD OF A STRONG PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM.
HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST
WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

*  HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY....SEE SFONPWMTR WWUS76
   KMTR FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STORMY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. LARGE
AND POWERFUL WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COAST. PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE. A HIGH SURF WARNING
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM THURSDAY.

*  HIGH SURF WARNING AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCH...SEE SFOCFWMTR

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS PER STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CAZ507-508-511>513-516>518-528-210200-
SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...ARROYO SECO...AND LAKE SAN ANTONIO-
SANTA LUCIA MOUNTAINS AND LOS PADRES NATIONAL FOREST-
MOUNTAINS OF SAN BENITO COUNTY AND INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY
INCLUDING PINNACLES NATIONAL MONUMENT-NORTH BAY MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO BAY SHORELINE-EAST BAY HILLS AND THE DIABLO RANGE-
NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...HOLLISTER VALLEY...AND CARMEL VALLEY-
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS-SANTA CLARA VALLEY...INCLUDING SAN JOSE-
400 AM PST WED JAN 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MUCH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO
BAY AREA AND MONTEREY BAY AREA.

.DAY ONE...WEDNESDAY

MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND WITH
THIS STRONG PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM. HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

*  HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY....SEE SFONPWMTR WWUS76
   KMTR FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STORMY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS PER STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CAZ506-510-210200-
NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS-
400 AM PST WED JAN 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS.

.DAY ONE...WEDNESDAY

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STORMY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS PER STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
743 AM PST WED JAN 20 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             3 SW SEBASTOPOL         38.37N 122.87W
01/19/2010  M0.50 INCH       SONOMA             CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FROM COCORAHS SPOTTER ID CA-SN-46

0730 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSW HALF MOON BAY     37.46N 122.44W
01/20/2010  M54.00 MPH       PZZ545             CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BTENTING