Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Missoula, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
256 PM MDT TUE AUG 10 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN MONTANA AND CENTRAL IDAHO...

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN MONTANA AND
CENTRAL IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS...HAIL LARGER THAN
NICKELS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KALISPELL TO OROFINO
IDAHO. THIS AREA IS WHERE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
LOCATED THAT WILL HELP SUSTAIN LARGE THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY LAST INTO THE EVENING AND TRANSITION TO RAIN SHOWERS
LATER TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN WASHINGTON...EASTERN OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO. SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE AROUND THE LOW THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA AND
CENTRAL IDAHO SPAWNING AREAS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL MONTANA AND CENTRAL IDAHO IN THE MORNING. THE FOCUS FOR
THE STRONGEST STORM POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN LEMHI
COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY COOL AND STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 70S OR
80. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATIONS OF
MORNING RAINFALL AREAS AND AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EXIT
THE REGION KEEPING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH OF
SNOW EXISTS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN THURSDAY MORNING AS SNOW LEVELS
DROP TO AROUND 9000 FEET.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A GENERAL DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS. LOWER CLOUD BASES AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL
LIKELY BE ENCOUNTERED IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
OBSCURING HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE PROCESS. ALL AIR FIELDS WILL BE
IMPACTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING LOWER HELLS
     CANYON/SALMON RIVER REGION...SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS.

&&

SHORT TERM...LOEFFELBEIN
LONG TERM....PALLISTER
AVIATION...RPN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
405 PM MDT TUE AUG 10 2010

MTZ006-007-102245-
BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS-BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION-
405 PM MDT TUE AUG 10 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN POWELL...SOUTHEASTERN
GRANITE AND NORTHERN DEER LODGE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

AT 404 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PHILIPSBURG...OR 27 MILES
WEST OF ANACONDA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...PORTERS CORNER AND
GEORGETOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE TO A WELL
PROTECTED AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4647 11298 4627 11279 4596 11354 4611 11368
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 237DEG 31KT 4609 11350

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
504 PM MDT TUE AUG 10 2010

MTZ003-004-102345-
FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS-LOWER CLARK FORK REGION-
504 PM MDT TUE AUG 10 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SANDERS...SOUTHERN
LAKE...WESTERN MISSOULA AND EASTERN MINERAL COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM
MDT...

AT 500 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF TARKIO...OR 19 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF SUPERIOR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...TARKIO...ALBERTON...
QUARTZ...CYR AND STARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE TO A WELL
PROTECTED AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4737 11447 4722 11418 4683 11469 4694 11489
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 215DEG 19KT 4696 11471

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
518 PM MDT TUE AUG 10 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     HAIL             8 SE POWELL             46.50N 114.59W
08/10/2010  E1.75 INCH       IDAHO              ID   OTHER FEDERAL

            USFS TRAIL CREW REPORT

&&

WHITMORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
519 PM MDT TUE AUG 10 2010

MTZ001-003-110000-
FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS-KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION-
519 PM MDT TUE AUG 10 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN FLATHEAD COUNTY UNTIL 600
PM MDT...

AT 512 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KALISPELL...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...WHITEFISH AND LUPFER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE TO A WELL
PROTECTED AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4853 11458 4843 11424 4800 11458 4808 11483
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 204DEG 21KT 4812 11465

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
519 PM MDT TUE AUG 10 2010

IDZ010-110000-
EASTERN LEMHI COUNTY-
519 PM MDT TUE AUG 10 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LEMHI COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM
MDT...

AT 510 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LEMHI...OR 23 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SALMON...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...TENDOY...AND MAINLY
RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL LEMHI COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE TO A WELL
PROTECTED AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4485 11382 4519 11361 4517 11358 4512 11356
      4511 11350 4508 11350 4502 11343 4495 11343
      4492 11348 4484 11343 4475 11353
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 220DEG 30KT 4495 11357

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
527 PM MDT TUE AUG 10 2010

MTZ007-110030-
BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION-
527 PM MDT TUE AUG 10 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN POWELL COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM MDT...

AT 520 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF DEER LODGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...DEER LODGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE TO A WELL
PROTECTED AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4637 11237 4637 11241 4632 11246 4633 11249
      4630 11255 4626 11256 4627 11282 4634 11294
      4661 11269 4644 11230 4641 11231
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 219DEG 24KT 4635 11269