Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Missoula, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
230 PM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH INTO THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...ALL THE ELEMENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR AN
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL
IDAHO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL MONTANA WHERE THE LARGE SCALE FORCING...INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE AND DEEP WIND SHEAR COME TOGETHER. THUS...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SELECT COUNTIES IN WEST-
CENTRAL MONTANA. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
EPISODE OF CONVECTIVE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO AND
NORTHWEST MONTANA TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NEEDED FORCING TO MAINTAIN
SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THOUGH STORM INTENSITY
SHOULD DIMINISH. THE PRECIPITATION FOCUS WILL MIGRATE NORTHWARD
SUNDAY TARGETING NORTHWEST MONTANA FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT....ONE TROUGH FEATURE EXITS TO THE EAST...WHILE
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CLOUDS AND
ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO AN AREA CLOSE TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES OVER
THESE DAYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL.

PERSISTENT TROUGHING APPEARS TO REMAIN AT LEAST LOOSELY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE BETTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST MONTANA AND THE GLACIER REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
TO BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA AFTER
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS STARTED ACROSS WESTERN
MONTANA...FOCUSED SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE-90 CORRIDOR. KBTM...KSMN
AND SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS HAVE THE CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AT LEAST THROUGH 01/0300Z AND POSSIBLY A
FEW HOURS BEYOND THAT. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE UP
THROUGH KMSO THIS EVENING AS WELL. MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS
NEAR AND AT THE AIRFIELDS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN AND SOME SMALL HAIL. OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...SHOWERY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM IN THE REGION.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING LOWER HELLS
     CANYON/SALMON RIVER REGION...SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS.

&&

SHORT TERM...MSJ
LONG TERM....KOLATA
AVIATION...NOLTE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
134 AM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010

IDZ005>010-MTZ001>007-043-010000-
NORTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS-
OROFINO/GRANGEVILLE REGION-LOWER HELLS CANYON/SALMON RIVER REGION-
WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY-EASTERN LEMHI COUNTY-KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION-
WEST GLACIER REGION-FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS-
LOWER CLARK FORK REGION-MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS-
BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS-BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION-
POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION-
134 AM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010 /1234 AM PDT SAT JUL 31 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
IDAHO...NORTHWEST MONTANA AND WEST CENTRAL MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GIBSON

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