Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG
THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH A WARM AND MOIST
AIR MASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS INDICATE A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
WEAK WIND FLOW RESULTING IN SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THINK THAT THE RESULTING FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL
BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN CUT-OFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH BY SATURDAY AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...HELPING TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...
A STAGNANT SUMMERLIKE PATTERN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING EACH DAY
RESULTING IN SCATTERED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL PLAN TO GENERALLY FOLLOW A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ON MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE IN FOR TUESDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THEN...ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND STAYED CLOSE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN   66  86  66  86  66 /  30  50  30  50  20
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN     64  86  64  86  64 /  50  50  30  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN             64  87  64  87  64 /  50  50  20  30  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN    60  86  60  86  60 /  60  50  20  20  20
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

DMG/MJB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
850 AM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-291000-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
850 AM EDT (750 AM CDT) FRI MAY 28 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IN
ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH A FEW ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLY
BECOMING SEVERE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DMG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
211 PM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010

TNZ017-018-044>047-281915-
JOHNSON TN-NORTHWEST CARTER TN-SOUTHEAST CARTER TN-SULLIVAN TN-UNICOI
TN-WASHINGTON TN-
211 PM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CARTER...UNICOI...JOHNSON...
SULLIVAN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 206 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MOUNTAIN CITY TO
ERWIN...AND MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...ELIZABETHTON...
JOHNSON CITY...BRISTOL TN...KINGSPORT...JONESBOROUGH...GRAY...
COLONIAL HEIGHTS...LAUREL BLOOMERY...SADIE...HUNTER...SHADY VALLEY...
LIMESTONE...WATAUGA...AVONDALE...LEESBURG...SOUTH HOLSTON DAM...
HARR...BLUFF CITY...TRI-CITY AIRPORT AND BLOUNTVILLE.

17

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
341 PM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND GST     SWEETWATER              35.60N 84.47W
05/28/2010  M58 MPH          MONROE             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED WIND GUST OF 58 MPH AT SWEETWATER. REPORTED BY
            SPOTTER.

&&

CAC/GRC