Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
328 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO
AREA OVER TOP OF STALLED WEAK FRONT AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP POPS HIGH THROUGH WEE HOURS WITH GRADUAL LOWERING THROUGH
MONDAY. INSTABILITY FAIR, AND SO BORDERLINE SEVERE (HAIL,
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS) TSTMS WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY EVENING. EXPECT THIS
TO MODERATE AFTER SUNSET AND FOR SEMI-UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO TAKE
ITS PLACE WITH SUSTAINED LIFT. HENCE, PERIODS OF BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS. DO NOT EXPECT TO ISSUE TO FLASH FLOOD
WATCH, BUT WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTS, AND FLOOD
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS, IF NECESSARY. OVERNIGHT CLOUDS STICK AROUND
HOLDING TEMPS UP AND SOME AREAS OF FOG WILL FORM. WILL KEEP AN EYE
OUT ON THIS AND RECOMMEND TO EVENING/MIDNIGHT SHIFTS ABOUT FOG
ADVISORY, AS NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...WEAK FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TN
VALLEY DURING THIS TIME WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL
DECREASE AS WELL. TUESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY SOUTHWEST HALF
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
COOLER WITH SOME CLEARING AND LOWER DEW POINTS BEHIND COLD FRONT.
STILL SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS NE. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST
DAY WITH SOME SUN BUT MODELS WANT TO BRING MOISTURE EAST FROM THE
PLAINS AS A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND SO HAVE ADDED AND INCREASED POPS FOR THE AREA.
ECMWF MODEL DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND SO KEPT POPS IN THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             63  80  60  77  54 /  70  60  30  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  64  78  59  74  53 /  70  60  50  20  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  78  59  74  52 /  70  60  50  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              61  74  56  72  50 /  80  80  60  40  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

BB/TD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
417 AM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-170900-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
417 AM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010 /317 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED...AND A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.
IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE FORECAST
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY HEAVY RAIN CAUSING
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
331 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 SW TAZEWELL           36.39N 83.67W
05/16/2010                   CLAIBORNE          TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON LONE MTN. RD. AND HWY 33S. SEVEN
            MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAZEWELL. REPORTED BY DISPATCH.

&&

GRC

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