Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
323 PM EDT SAT MAY 15 2010

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SW NC TO MIDDLE TN ARE FORMING IN A
ZONE OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP TODAY AS YESTERDAY...RESULTING
IN LESS CAPE...BUT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME
WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE AS WELL...BUT THIS DEPARTS AFTER SUNSET...SO
WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
MIDNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL
PROVIDE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AS PW RISE TO 1.8 INCHES. THE MAIN CONCERN
TOMORROW IS THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT MAY FALL IN THE PLATEAU COUNTIES
THAT SAW SOME FLOODING YESTERDAY AND MAY SEE MORE AGAIN TODAY. A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CONSIDERED...BUT AS MOST PRECIP WILL COME
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WILL LET THE MID SHIFT EVALUATE NEWER MODEL
QPF. RAISED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL IN WESTERN SECTIONS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE LOOKS MINIMAL TOMORROW AS MORNING
CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SUNDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CONTINUES TO SWING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY GENERATING CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. VERY HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A DEEPENING UPPER TROF MOVES FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO
THE MIDWEST. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF
WILL SHIFT FROM THE MS RIVER TO OHIO. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
COLLIDE WITH MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THAT TIME.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE SYSTEM WILL CLOSE OFF INTO AN
UPPER LOW AND MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD. THIS LARGE CIRCULATION
HAS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WITH IT THAT WILL ROTATE SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS KEEPING SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST NE TN AND SW VA THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THE NW FLOW AROUND THE
UPPER LOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS BUT
WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN TENNESSEE
VALLEY FRIDAY. WILL INTRODUCE POPS BACK IN THE SOUTH SATURDAY AS
THINK THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWER.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             64  82  65  81  60 /  40  80  70  70  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  80  65  79  59 /  40  80  80  70  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  77  65  79  58 /  40  80  80  70  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              57  78  60  78  58 /  40  70  90  80  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

DGS/TD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
349 AM EDT SAT MAY 15 2010

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-160900-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
349 AM EDT SAT MAY 15 2010 /249 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED...AND A FEW OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE FORECAST
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES DURING THE WEEKEND.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
433 PM EDT SAT MAY 15 2010

TNZ081>083-099-152115-
BLEDSOE TN-HAMILTON TN-RHEA TN-SEQUATCHIE TN-
333 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NORTHWEST HAMILTON...
NORTHERN SEQUATCHIE...BLEDSOE AND WESTERN RHEA COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM
CDT/515 PM EDT/...

AT 326 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF DUNLAP...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...PIKEVILLE...OLD
CUMBERLAND...BRAYTON...GRAYSVILLE...MOUNT CREST AND MELVINE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

TG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
642 PM EDT SAT MAY 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             6 N CLEVELAND           35.26N 84.87W
05/15/2010  E1.00 INCH       BRADLEY            TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN THE HOPEWELL AREA. REPORTED BY TV
            METEOROLOGIST.

0605 PM     HAIL             5 NW CALHOUN            35.35N 84.81W
05/15/2010  E1.50 INCH       MCMINN             TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PING PONG SIZED HAIL IN THE GEORGETOWN AREA. REPORTED BY
            TV METEOROLOGIST.

&&

FERRELL

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